OUTRIGHT BETS - Recap:
After having Sungjae Im as a Core Play, and Matthew Wolff as an outright bet two weeks ago, it was pretty awesome to see Rory win one for us, but not only that Morikawa finished 2nd, and Sam Burns was right in the mix as well.
Last week we hit Hideki at 12/1. Making it 3 great weeks in a row
This week we get the Bermuda Championship which is played at Port Royal Golf Club. As you can see this is a very pretty golf course as long as the weather permits it to be. This is considered a "Seaside" Course which is basically an open layout type course that is subject to windy conditions. A lot of these could be considered Links style courses as well but the Links courses we see on the PGA Tour are a bit different from what we see on the Euro tour. This is a course where hitting the fairway tends to matter more, and scoring on the short par 5s is key. This is a short Par 71 course. The Greens are Bent Greens, and this is a Robert Trent Jones Course Design.
Key stats this week are little bit harder to determine because we have not had ShotLink data here the past two years. What we do have is all the other stats. We can see that Good Drive % has been one of the most crucial stats. We also see that taking advantage of the Par 5s has been key as well. A lot of shorter hitters have done well on this course. Typical characteristics of short hitters is that they are good Ball Strikers, and can typically putt well.
Good Drive %
Par 5 Scoring
Below you will see the top outright bets this week.
Mito Pereira 16/1: Now Mito might end up being chalk, and this is a week in which I think it would make a lot of since to fade the chalk for a player that is equally as good of a play. So if he is way more owned than C Bez or even Buckley, and Ramey I will simply just play them. But I would say Mito is the best play this week. He has made 3 straight cuts in a row. He ranks top 25 in 5 out of the 6 significant stats this week. The only flaw for Mito is that he missed the cut at the Puerto Rico Open which is a Comp Course for this week. Not a big knock against him. I do really like him as a play this week.
Danny Willett 40/1: Willet made the cut at this event last year and had a top 10 finish at the Corales last year. He is a top 15 stat fit, and ranks out top 10 in the 925 model this week. I don't know I would just rather bet him as an outright than I would play him in DFS this week. We have seen Willett be inconsistent in his career, and I believe this is the reason why he is a better outright than a DFS play.
Mark Hubbard 60/1: Hubbard has made the cut in his last 7 starts, and he ranks out as a top 12 stat fit. He also made the cut at this event in 2020. All in all I think that Hubbard is safe, and has the upside to win this week.
Nick Hardy 50/1: Hardy is 21st in GD%, and he is top 50 in effective scoring. He has made the cut in his last 4 events as well. Overall I really like Ramey, and Buckley this week but knowing I can get Nick Hardy at 50/1 odds is too good to pass up on.
Cameron Percy 100/1: Percy has made the cut here the last two years finishing 26th, and 48th. He also finished 7th at the Puerto Rico Open. He has made the cut in his last 7 starts. When looking at secondary stats we see that he is really a great golfer on short courses. He plays better at tougher to hit fairways, and also is a good putter on Bermuda Greens. It would not shock me to see Percy win either. As we see with DFS a lot this is either a play that finishes top 10, or misses the cut badly, because we the stars align that is sometimes when disaster happens.