The BMW Championship will be the second leg of the PGA Tour Playoffs, where the "top" 50 players from this past season will be teeing it up in hopes of making it to the tour championship.
This will once again be a no-cut based event, and with a smaller field the strategy behind a no-cut event is amplified even more. We will need to be doing studs and duds builds to be having a good week.
With that being said, this is going to be a short and simple writeup this week.
Worth noting unlike last week where we tend to see more random results, this weeks tournament tends to lead to be more predictive. I think that is due to the nature of the event, where a golfers finish here (that is in contention for the Tour Championship WIN) matters more.
This Weeks Video:
- Effective Scoring
- Total Driving
- Ball Striking - BOB
- Par 5 Scoring
This is an interesting because the course we did see 3 years ago when Jon Rahm won it, and with that tournament we do have course history stats to go off of in which we can tell which stats are the key stats. What is strange is that BOB is more crucial than B2B Ratio. This can occur but what makes it weird is that this is a harder scoring event. That being said if golfers are scoring they are doing it on a Par 5 which was a predictive stat that week as well in 2020. How do golfer get there? By having both length and accuracy off the tee. Golfers might club down to try and keep it in the fairway which is why we might have seen the 200+ yardage stat popping up.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years tournament history.
I believe that tournament history is just as crucial as course history this week, as golfers are needing to play well enough to make it to the Tour Championship. This to me is like looking at Majors regardless of the course to see why or why not a golfer might play well. The mentality is what matters.
Now we should be defaulting to 2020 when the tournament took place here. That to me will be the most crucial of the event/course history to look at.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING:RED
The next two weeks will be RED simply because of the small fields. That being said will football starting to kick off people might not be as dialed in so there could be a potential edge.
Weather could play a slight factor on Thursday, but after that it is looking like good weather.
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
I started out this week thinking I would want to go Rahm over Rory due to price, but upon a deeper dive I do think that Rory is the top play this week. he has just been on fire as we can see with his recent form. I also like the fact that he played well at this tournament in 2020 finishing 12th. The last two years he has finished 8th and 4th as well. Simply put Rory is coming in checking all the boxes that I think he will be the top play this week. The only worry with Rory is that he might struggle accuracy wise off the tee, that being said I think we might see him club down.
Patrick Cantlay has dominated at this event with two wins and a 2nd in the past 4 years. His one "bad" finish was however in 2020 where he finished 12th, which is something I would still take. The reason I love Cantlay is that he is the 2nd best stat fit in the field.
Rickie ranks top 7 or better in Total Driving and Ball Striking. This should be a great week for Rickie as well. His finish last week should keep his ownership low.
Henley is a play that I do think will be tough to end up on given his price tag this week. But I do like his last two finishing on the tour. We know who he is as a player. He is a player that is extremely hit or miss. I don't mind chasing his upside this week.
Collin Morikawa has been struggling to play consistent round-by-round golf. Last week that was true as well. Still he is a top 5 stat fit this week, and given that he did finish 13th I think he has the upside to win this week.
Hatton is something that is also a good stat fit. It is tough to see a week in which Total Driving and Ball Striking are the key stats and not think Hatton. The worry is that he had an off week last week finishing 40th. That being said he did finish 16th at this event in 2020.
Andrew Putnam did what we rostered him to do last week finishing top 25. I believe that he has a good chance to finish in the top 50% this week again this week. Thus he is someone I am going out of my way to play. A play like this allows me to fit the higher end players into my builds. The worry with him is that the length of the course will limit his upside.
Conners is a very similar play to Henley, just with slightly less upside. The thing that I like about Conners though is that he has two top 10 finishes at this tournament in the past. He also has that over his past 4 finishes on the PGA Tour. He does hold solid upside.
Brendon Todd is another one of those golfers I will be looking at to chase as a value based play that I think has a good chance to finish in the top 50%. It also doesn't hurt that he finished 8th at this tournament in 2020.
Eric Cole has just been playing some solid golf, actually ranking out in the 11th best form. Really if he can score this week he could easily have himself a good week this week. Considering his price he might actually be the value play that I prefer the most.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Another golfer that I have gotten more on as the week as progressed (why I am glad I didn't force the writeup too early) is Byeon Hun An, who has some of the best length on the Tour. The worry is that he needs to hit the fairway a little bit more. If he does that I do think he has the upside to WIN this week. That is due to him having a runner-up finish, and a 3rd place finish. He also did finish 12th at this tournament in 2020 which is highly encougring to me.
The only reason I am knocking Harman this week is because I'd rather play Henley and Conners at their prices. He is however looking like a solid play.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this wee
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: CORE, + Putnam, Cole, Todd
GPP: Hun An, Morikawa
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Honestly feel pretty good about this build. I think we are getting good enough values, and the two players I am paying up for I view as the two golfers that are most likely to win this week.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
I don't see ownership playing too big of a factor this week with the reduced field as everyone will have higher ownership.