Last week continued a hot stretch that we have been on in the fall. One of our starting points Matt Kuchar got a little bit unlucky to end up losing but we played him due to his safety, and he certainly was worthwhile finishing T2, at a strange 7% ownership. We also had 5 other golfers finish inside of the top 10 including the two of the top pay up plays in Ludvig Aberg, and Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia was another play that was easy to end up on giving his price. Chances are you ended up on similar lineup path that started you out with two top 10 finishes in Bhatia, and Kuchar. Another noteworthy top 10 finisher was Sam Ryder who was one of my favorite value plays.
Now we jump into this week, and this is not going to be as appealing of a week, as a lot of the plays are correctly priced both odds wise, and salary wise, regardless let's jump into it.
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
This is another course that can be pretty easy to score on as it operates more as a resort style course which are typically easier courses. Thus we will be looking at the same key stats this week as we did last week.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Although this tournament will take place at a new course I still feel like looking at tournament history will be the most accurate this week. This is due to tournament dynamics, players will be traveling to Mexico, and the process of doing that will stay the same, and looking at the course it still will seemingly play like a resort-style course.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
I really do not like the pricing that we have for this week. This tournament does typically lead to some random results, I think this is due to two reason, one the weather is typically bad, as it can get extremely windy, that should not be the case this week. Also just the caliber of field is typically much worse, and a lot of the players we do not see to often thus it is harder to gauge who to be on.
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Among the golfers that are listed as "good" outright bets the only one that I feel like has a great chance to win is Akshay Bhatia. that is my one bet from this group.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Further echoing why I do not like this week the only great play that we have on paper this week is Bhatia, on a normal week we should have at the very least 4 quality players. He is just the clear cut play, and we will try to find other guys to pair with him
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
None of these golfers give me extreme confidence that they will make the cut, as they basically have all been golfers that have had some close cutsweats in recent weeks. That being said that is the week that we have. I think that starting with Bhatia will lead us to getting to at least 2 of Smalley, Wu, and Lanto. The hope is that 2 out of those three will make the cut.
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Now we get into the risk/ reward plays for at least for the higher priced golfer. I look at Scott, and Todd and I get why they are priced this high, but my issue is that they feel far from a lock in giving us top 10 finishes, and at their price that is what we would want.
Noren is another play that is likely to make the cut, but I don't think he is too likely to outproduce his price tag this week.
Ben Griffin, and Pendrith I do really like as plays, but my worry with them is that they are also priced up a little bit. In a fair and balanced build I do like Pendrith a decent amount. This is due to his last two starts on tour being top 15 finishes, and that he has a top 5 finish here.
Whaley has been playing some really good golf over his past 3 months or so, and given that consistency I am perfectly fine ending up on him as a play this week, heck you could argue he is too cheap for his likely safety he holds this week.
Lower is a golfer that I am fine ending up on. You look at his results this season and they are not terrible at lot of his missed cuts where in event in which he didn't play good enough missing the cut by shooting even par, and -2. Given that he made the cut last week I am fine ending up on him. I do see him as more of a shoulder shrug play however.
Knox is one of the better "fall" golfers in the field. His Event History over the past few months has shown that as well as the fact that he has made 3 out of 4 cuts now this fall. He also has played this course extremely well. He is another golfer that I am happy to end up on.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
All of these golfers are good options considering their prices minus Glover. Glover is just a play in which I would rather pay up for the other options that I had already mentioned.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Bhatia, Smalley, Lanto, Wu, Pendrith, Whaley
GPP: Noren, Detry, Scott, Todd, Glover
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Yea it is an ugly week.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)