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PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)

Updated: May 26

This week we have the Charles Schwab Challenge, playing at Colonial Country Club. This is an event and a course that we have seen plenty of, so we should know which golfers to be on this week. This is a week where I am very dialed in on which golfers I want to be on, and that will either mean it will be a really good work or the opposite of that.

We are getting a week in which I see the pricing as very soft for DFS, and betting purposes, so on paper it seems like a week in which the hot streak should continue.

What hot streak? Cashed Xander FRL the last two weeks, and cashed Xander outright last week. DFS wise it has been profitable 7 out of the past 8 weeks for me. (most NineToFive members as well)

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.


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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.


Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

  • Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio + Bogey Avoidance (EB2B)

  • Good Drive & (GD%)

  • Ball Striking (BS)

  • Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat

  • Par 4 Scoring (Par4)

  • Wedge Scoring (Wedge) - Combo stat for 125 yards and in.

This course is setup for so that anyone that is on their game can contend and play well, but what we have typically seen is that it is the golfers that are the most accurate that tend to be the ones coming out on top. Golfers that have won have been golfers that found both the fairway and greens. This is a course where playing smart rather than just bombing off the tee is key. You will see this reflected in some of the golfers that I will be on this week.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

  • H1 - H4: 2023 - 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge


Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

This is another yellow week this week for me, one that I like a decent amount on paper, but there is a little bit of risk this week, and this is due to me trying to get to a lot of Scottie, this will cause me to end up on at least one sub 7k play. Although I like the options we have in that range that will always add a bit of risk.


It does not appear like weather will be a big part of the story this week, however this is Texas and I would not be shocked if the winds are a little big more than the 14.5 MPH winds on average we are projected to get.

Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.

Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

Picture 2 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 70% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

My Outright Bets:

  • Scottie Wire to Wire 18/1

  • Morikawa 12/1

  • Lucas Glover 66/1

  • Mark Hubbard 75/1 (originally 100/1)

Toying around with the idea of getting on Billy Horschel, Tony Finau, Thomas Detry and/or Harris English. All four are not typical golfers I'd like to get to, but this isn't a typical week. Normally I like to narrow my outrights to 7 golfers, but with Scottie this week I am not sure that is needed. If you're not betting Scottie I would be fine rolling with all 4. (Wednesday Add - Called out on live stream / outright video, Keegan Bradley 55/1)

Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most


The four core plays that I am on this week are Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Lucas Glover, and Mark Hubbard. Scottie I feel like I don't need to get into why he is a core play, by now everyone basically knows if Scottie is in the field you're playing him.

The biggest question this week is whether or not to play both Morikawa and Scottie in a build together, from what I have seen thus far this week this would be a unique approach even though some of the values we have this week could make this approach a great option. Morikawa has been trending in the right direction over his past 7 starts now. He has made the cut in all of them, and has had multiple top 10 finishes. Morikawa is coming in checking all the boxes, 0 missed cuts at this event in the past 4 years with a top 10 finishes mixed in there, he's in the 2nd best form, 13th best stat fit, and 2nd best specialist. The only reason that some might talk themselves out of Morikawa is because he "choked" last week. I don't view it that way, I view it as he gave himself plenty of opportunities in the final round, but he just was not hot with his putter, and last week was a week where that was needed. Like Xander I could see Morikawa have the opposite Sunday and find himself in the winners circle.

The next two plays might be surprising to some, but Lucas Glover and Mark Hubbard are two plays that really pop and are really cheap. If we are trying to get Scottie in our builds these are the two kind of salary relief plays we need.

Despite starting +3 after 3 holes in the first round last week, Lucas Glover managed to turn things around on the back nine and finish the round at even par, securing his spot for the rest of the tournament. His consistent performance has seen him make the cut in his last 6 starts, placing him 9th in terms of form among the competitors. Glover has a strong track record at this event, having made 3 consecutive cuts with a top 10 and a top 25 finish. With his statistics aligning well and showing similarities to Collin Morikawa, he is a compelling choice for this week's competition.

Mark Hubbard is basically the same play as Glover, the difference (and this will sound weird) is that Hubbard has a little bit more upside, but Glover might have a little bit more winning upside. Glover has two wins over his past 20 starts, so if he finds himself in contention I think he will be able to manage those nerves better, but Hubbard is the one who has found himself in contention multiple times thus far this season. He is one of the better golfers on tour in terms of scoring before the cut, so we just need him to put together a good weekend. He is a play that should have both safety and upside.

High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)


Finau's main concerns this week are his previous missed cut at this event last year and his inconsistent form. He has shown a pattern of performing below expectations in some weeks and then looking like a strong contender in others. This unpredictability makes it difficult to rely on him. However, Finau has made efforts to improve his accuracy by reducing his tee shot speed, resulting in a high ranking of 4th in Good Drive %. While he is a strong statistical match and has the potential to perform well, his unpredictability makes him a risky choice at his current price point.

Billy Horschel is recommended for GPP contests only, similar to Bryson/Hun An's situation last week, where Bryson performed well and was in contention, while Hun An struggled throughout. I believe Horschel could show both sides this week. Horschel's recent strong performance indicates that the swing changes he made months ago are starting to pay off. He secured a victory at the Corales and achieved 5 top-12 finishes or better in his last 8 starts. However, there were also two missed cuts and a 52nd place finish in a 69-man field event among those results. He is a solid choice for GPP contests but not recommended for cash games.

Aaron Rai is a player I find unexpectedly on my radar, as the statistics also support his potential. Despite my initial surprise, upon closer examination, his performance makes sense. He has achieved three consecutive cuts, demonstrating promise with a 4th place finish in a recent event. Being a strong statistical match and having finished 12th in the same event last year, he presents an attractive option for cost-saving this week.

Andrew Putnam has been one of our favorite plays for over a year and a half now, and he continues to come through for us. Besides the team event where he missed the cut he just plays solid golf, even in his missed cuts his game has not been that far off. I was very impressed that he made the cut last week, and now we can get him on a track that should fit his game much better, that to me is very appealing. He has strong finishes on this course over his past two tries finishing 29th and 15th. At this price, and given how much trust I have in him as a play he will be an easy click.

Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.


Max Homa has also been a little bit to hit or miss for me to trust, although he has still managed 8 straight cuts made, and has multiple top 10 finishes mixed in. The reason why I like Finau slightly more than Homa is that FInau is a slightly better stat fit, if you like Homa slightly more than FInau I would say that makes sense.

Si Woo Kim and Chris Kirk are two golfers that I find different to rank this week player pool wise, because the NineToFive Model likes them both more than I do. Both are great stat fits, and both had been in great form prior to last week. The concern is that maybe last week was the start of bad golf being played for these two. I see Si Woo Kim as a GPP only play, and Kirk is also a GPP only play, but at his price he is a little bit more manageable with roster construction.

Thomas Detry is a very similar play to Billy Horschel on paper, the only difference is that I believe Horschel has a little bit more upside to win. Detry is however top 10 or better in 3 of the key metrics that we look at so it would not be shocking to see him has a good week.

Chan Kim and Andrew Novak are two of the better value options that we have this week. Kim missed the cut at the team event, but besides that has played extremely well, and Novak has made 6 straight cuts now. Both grade out as golfers that should make the cut. These are two plays that I like to use with lineups that have Scottie.

Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays


Taylor Moore is in the 12 best form in the field, the issue with him this week is that he has not made a cut at this event in 2 tries. I think the form, and stat fit will carry over for him to have a good week this week, but because of those two missed cuts I had to knock him a little bit.

Justin Lower missed the cut on the number at the Myrtle Beach Classic, prior to that he had been playing great golf, and even had a top 4 finish mixed in there. That is really the only concern with him is that missed cut, other than that he looks like a solid play on paper especially at this price.

Scott and Mitchell both finally missed a cut, which I could see them using as a mental reset to be able to go out and finally truly find themselves in contention. Mitchell is the most interesting of the two though as he is the 2nd best stat fit in the field. This would suggest that he should be able to bounce back in a strong way this week. He also missed the cut on the number, but did battle back last week to give himself a chance at a made cut. He could be a sneaky option.

Jordan is a very interesting play this week as prior to last year he had 4 top 10 finishes at this course, now last year he was coming into this event with a slight injury, and that seemingly caused him to miss the event. I do expect him to have a good week this week, but of the elite golfers he is the one I trust this least this week.

Sam Stevens has two top 10 finishes over his past 7 starts while also make the cut in his last 7 starts. He has made 11/14 this season. We are trying to fit Scottie into our builds this week, and this is another play that allows us to do that.

      Lower Exposure

Golfers that I will not being going out of my way to roster in hand builds, but will be attempting to get to in large field GPPs.


All of these plays are plays I feel the need to get to a little bit this week as they are all golfers that have the ability to have a top 10 finish this week minus Dylan Wu. Dylan WU I more like because of his solid form that he has been in. Sure he missed the cut at this event last year, but at least he gained that course experience.

I do think Merritt is somewhat noteworthy as well given his price. He is someone that we just saw finish top 10 two events ago, and he is someone that has finished top 10 at this event in the past. He is a golfer that tends to get hot random weeks, and I could see this being a course in which he does just that.


Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)


(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core, Finau, Putnam, Chim (Chan Kim), Novak, Stevens

GPP: Billy Ho, Kirk, Si Woo, Jordan, Scott, Yu, Merritt


*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

I am a little bit iffy on if I want to have Aaron Rai in a main build, but list lineup does pop a decent amount, and is a lineup that I do like a lot. The issue is that the second lineup that I have featured could end up with the same number of golfers across the cut line, just it will have more upside.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

Last week we ended up getting some small edges when looking at ownership, and I feel like we have that again this week, I am very VERY shocked that Glover and Hubbard are not chalk, and I even more surprised they are not double digit in ownership. This seems like a massive spot to be overweight on both. C Bez I don't expect to still be double digit in projected ownership come lineup lock but that does seem like an easy fade if that occurs.


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