Last week was another easy week in PGA DFS, and besides picking the outright winner an easy week betting as well. Looking at this week it is the first tough week we have had in sometime. This mostly comes down to two things, 1) The pricing is correct in both DFS, and Betting wise, 2) we have a week field on paper, there is a lack of safety in the plays that we are getting this week especially due to the pricing.
In a weird way I feel like it is a straight forward week due to the lack of good plays that we have I feel like I knew which plays to be on precisely. Now there is a bit more risk this week but I do that that will present us more upside as well.
This week we get the Farmers Insurance Open which is played at Torrey Pines on two different courses. The South Course which is where last years US Open was, and the North Course. The North course is typically the easier of the two courses because it is simply shorted by 400+ yards. Both courses are Par 72. Needless to say in Showdowns you will want to target the North Course. The North Course will only be played on the first two days, and then we get the South Course the final two rounds.
(Main) Course Preview:
Course Name: Torrey Pines (South)
Designer: William P Bell
Course Style: Seaside
Event Type: Full
Course Name: Torrey Pines (North)
Designer: William P Bell
Course Style: Seaside
First I do want to call out that I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Par 5 Scoring
This is a week in which golfers can win in different ways, as a result it can be tough to dial in which key stats we should be looking at specifically. When golfers pepper the greens they tend to make less bogey's thus that is why we are looking at GIR, and Birdie to Bogey ratio. Golfers who tend to take advantage of the Par 5s tend to do well and make the cut.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Red
I think the build process this week is somewhat straight forward but at the same time that is what gets me worried. I see this week as a limited player pool week simply because the players we can to be on are very limited this week. Thus if one of those golfers were to miss the cut or two of them were to miss the cut that would = a bad week.
Another good weather week.
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
My outright bets will be:
I agree with the 4 data outright bets that we have. I will be adding in Luke List, Sungjae Im and Eric Cole into that list.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
I do agree with the data's core plays that we have listed above. I view Montgomery as a little bit more of a GPP play but his price makes him very appealing. To me Sungjae Im, and Keegan Bradley are logical starting points this week.
I do like Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa this week, but I am a little bit suprised that the data like those two a little bit more than Xander in terms of making him a core play. I will be doing that.
Luke List feels like a very safe play at his price. (Sounds weird to say.)
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Like I mentioned above I will be treating Xander as a Core Play, but the other three golfers listed here make sense as to why they are getting slightly knocked.
Theegala has been very hit or miss lately, which is why he makes for a good outright bet this week. But he is not someone I feel great about as a cash pay.
Eric Cole missed the cut at this event last year so naturally the data will knock him, I do still view him as one of the better plays that we have this week.
Patrick Cantlay is only getting knocked this week doing to not making starts at this tournament over the past four years.
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Harris English is a play I thought I would be on a lot at the start of the week before I saw his event history. that is why he is being knocked, and I personally think that does make him more of a lineup filler only play. That is due to his strong form over his past few starts.
Sepp Straka is a play that I have been ending up on more as the week has progressed, and that is more due to his price, and overall he is looking like a very solid, and safe play this week.
Speaking of safe plays, both Ben Griffin, and Stephan Jaeger are looking like safe plays to me this week especially considering their prices. To me they make for great plays in both GPPs, and Cash builds. They are the players that I have ended up on the most thus far this week. This is my concern this week though, I wouldn't say either of these two plays are elite plays, but they are this week when you consider their prices. If one of them misses the cut or if Jaeger continue to not have upside that would not be too shocking.
I do think it is worth calling out that Taylor Pendrith is a good GPP only play as well. He is a good stat fit, and has been hit or miss lately on the PGA Tour.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Jason Day is the first player this week that I will be on much more than what the data is us. Day has a recent top 10 finish, and last week he was able to score fantasy points, as he ended up scoring even more than Scottie. The issue with Day is that he made too many double bogeys. Now this is a course that day has loved in the past so I expect him to show up and have a good week.
I think Ryo is a player that at his price I will be on more than what the data tag is suggesting. The reason he is getting knocked is to us not having too much data on him just yet. I view him as a border line High Exposure play due to his form.
The same could be said for Adam Svennson who might not have the best course history, but at least he has played here twice. The reason why he is a good play this week is due to his strong form.
The "Low Exposure" range is loaded with plays that are good enough, and I see a lot of these golfers as shoulder shrug plays.
The only other golfer I want to call is Matthew NeSmith as i have ended up on him a decent amount in builds where I needed the value. I prefer him over Bramlett, and Shelton.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core/HIgh Expsoure. (minus Theegala)
GPP: Beau, Pendrith, Day, English, Theegala, Svensson
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
I haven't decided where I will make the salary adjustment to this build but I do think that this is the best build process on the week. Whether that is pivoting from Sungjae to Cole, or from Jaeger to potentially Sigg.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)
To further the point of what makes this week not the best on paper look at the Over-owned golfers we are getting this week and their ownerships. It is not like they are bad plays for say. It is just the fact that they are great plays, and people are being forced into making plays that might not have the best chances of making the cut.
I do find it interesting that Jaeger and Cole are this low-owned. To me these really are great leverage spots. The ownerships on these two do not really make sense.