This week is basically the exact opposite of last week where we can attack this slate from everywhere. The field switched over from an "Open" event to an "Invitational", this basically means that we are losing around 25 players this week. Reducing the field reduces the edge that we gain in DFS, and it increases the likelihood that lineups will get 6/6 across the cut line. This is typically an event where the longer hitters do well, and players that have played this event before typically will play better as well. I will be factoring in Course History over recent form slightly more this week.
Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Total Driving, Driving Distance, SG AP
This Week's Strategy: (Staying the same as last week)
- Cash: I am finding it very tough to make a cash build this week due to how many great plays there are across the board. We can literally go anywhere this week in cash.
- GPP: 20 lineups - Paying up for (2) 9K plays, and filling in where needed.
Slate Confidence: Yellow - There is a lot of room this week to have a great build. I really like attacking this slate, but this should be an easy week for everyone.
TOP PLAYS THIS WEEK
High Tier: Honestly this field is loaded. I am fine with any of the high tier plays. These are the players that I am fading this week in the high tier: Justin Thomas, Tiger, DJ, and Brooks. Obviously anyone of those players can go out and win. But we have to take a stand somewhere.
Rory, and Rahm: These two are truly in a class of their own over the past 3 months, with 0 finishes outside of the top 10. Rory has three straight T20 finishes or better at this event, and Rahm finished T9 here last year. They are both top 10 stat fits. If you're paying up for them you're essentially locking in a T15 finish or better.
Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay is one of my favorite plays this week, as he is checking all the boxes. He has made the cut in his last 13 starts, and he has an average finish of 18th in 6 starts this season. He is a top 10 stat fit, ranking 4th in Total Driving, 1st in Ball Striking, 6th in Strokes Gained Approach, and 71st in Driving Distance. He has finished T15, and T4 in two starts at this course. He should be a lock to finish T20 or better.
Bubba Watson: Watson has great course history here with 3 wins over the last 6 years. He is trending in the right direction with his form finishing T3, T6, 18, and T28 over the last 4 starts. He also is a great stat fit this week finishing T22 in Total Driving, T34 in Ball Striking, 25th in Strokes Gained Approach, and 3rd in Driving Distance. This is essentially the Webb Simpson play 2 weeks ago.
Adam Scott: Scott has 3 T11 finishes or better here in the last 4 years, and has not missed a cut. He has made the cut in his last 8 starts as well. He is also a top 20 stat fit this week. Scott is also checking all the boxes this week. The only slight worry with Scott is that he won in his last event, but that was more than a month ago, and he should be hungry to go out and play well this week.
Mid Tier: This range is very interesting, we are getting world-class players at discounted prices. I could find a reason to play anyone in this range.
Justin Rose: Rose is an insane discount this week, and it does make sense, but that does not mean that his price is correct. Rose is $8,500 on DK this week because in his last event he missed the cut, he hasn't played enough rounds this season to gain stats for this year, and because he has not played this event in the last two years. In his last two starts here he finished T4, and T16. We know who Rose is as a player, and if we were looking at his stats from last year he would be a top 10 stat fit. We don't have to play him in cash this week because of that recent missed cut, but I will have a lot of him in GPP's.
Abraham Ancer: Ancer is trending in the right direction with his course history, finishing T44 last year, T68 the year before that, and a missed cut in his first start. His recent form has been elite! In his last 5 starts he has finished T6, 2, T38, T8, and T4. 4 TOP 10 FINISHES IN 5 STARTS!!! Ancer isn't the longest off of the Tee ranking 114, every other stat that we are looking at is 79 in better. Ranks T56 in Total Driving, 49th in Ball Striking, 15th in Strokes Gained Total, T22 in Strokes Gained AP, and 5th in scrambling. This play is a little risky at this price point due to the other players around him, but I love his upside.
Sungjae Im: Im is a great stat fit ranking 10 this week. His game literally does not have a weakness. He has made the cut in his last 14 starts. He did struggle his first time playing this event last year missing the cut, but I do like that he does have course experience.
Bryson DeChambeau: Bryson is the most underpriced play this week. He is Top 5 in Total Driving, 10th in Ball Striking, T22 in Strokes Gained Total, 21st in Total Putting, 146th in SG AP, 27th in Scrambling, and 6th in Driving Distance. So sure he has been stroking on his second shot, but I like that he is scrambling well. The rest of the stats are absolutely elite! Bryson has finished T15, T41, and W/D in his last 3 starts. Once again getting better in each start. His recent form I guess is why he was priced this low. In 7 starts this year Bryson has finished T52, T8, MC, 15th, T4, T14, and MC. The recent form is not bad, and I love the discount this week. Trying to figure out if I want to put him in cash.
Paul Casey: Casey has great course history making the cut in his last 4 starts here. But he has an average finish of 38th, which is not great. Casey has made the cut in his last 12 starts, but is not in the greatest recent form. He isn't the best stat fit either, and his final round at Pebble does worry mem. But this is Paul Casey at under 8K. I am trying to find reasons to fade him in cash, and I may not be able to this week.
Charles Howell III: Howell has good course history with an average finish of 33rd. He relatively is a good stat fit and has relatively been playing some good golf. He did miss the cut in 2 out of 3 of his last starts but did go under par in both of those starts. (Very similar to Nick Taylor last week). I find myself trying to play him in cash even though I know he is not a great cash play.
Alex Noren: Noren has made the cut in his last 8 events, and he had a T16 finish in his only start here in the last 4 years. He is a good stat fit this week. He isn't long off the Tee, T116 in Driving Distance but makes up for it in SG AP ranking 18th. Noren this week is essentially the play that DK is trying to force us into this week. If he is too chalky I can see fading him.
Nick Taylor: I think we can go back to the well with Taylor this week. He is a top 30 stat fit, and has made the cut here in each of his last 4 starts.
Value Tier: Touching on my two favorite values below. Just want to say that Denny McCarthy, Sebastian Munoz, Adam Schenk, and Lanto Griffin are really good stat fits. Would not shock me if they get a T20 or better this week.
Carlos Ortiz: Ortiz seems underpriced this week. He has finished T9, and T26 here in his only 2 starts over the past 4 years. He ranks 59th in Driving Distance and 26th in Scrambling. He has made 8 out of 10 cuts this year with 3 of those starts being top 3 finishes. He has made 8 out of his last 9 cuts.
Brian Harman: Not the best course history finishing T51, MC, T72, this does worry me. Harman, however, has made the cut in his last 5 starts. He is a top 25 stat fit this week as well.
*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course.
* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.
The more weeks we are into the season the more this will be accurate.
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: CANTLAY, WATSON, SCOTT, NOREN, CASEY, HOWELL, NOREN, ANCER, HIDEKI, TAYLOR
GPP: ORTIZ, MUNOZ, ROSE, ANCER, XANDER, LANTO
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.