This week we have the Genesis Invitational which will be a limited field as it is a signature event. A lot of the top golfers on the PGA Tour will be playing in this event which in theory should make this week a little bit easier to predict.
For me there are three golfers that stand out this week as players I want to target in DFS and Betting. They are Scottie Scheffler (of course), Adam Scott and (still) Wyndham Clark. Scott and Clark as you will see are too cheap. Let's get into why.
First I do want to call out that I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Strokes Gained Approach
200+ Scoring
Bogey Avoidance (BA)
Par 4 Scoring
Being a Par 71 it makes since why Par 4 Scoring pops as a key stat which makes sense. In terms of unique stats that pop for the week 200+ is the only one that truly stands out. Golfers are left with this distance a lot.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years. (event history)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow The only issue that I have had this week is closing out my builds. I keep ending up on a player that I feel like is a shoulder shrug play.
Weather:
Nothing to crazy again weather wise as it sits right now, minus Sunday where there is a some rain and a slight breeze.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
We have a long list of golfers that should be good outright bets this week. To me I only want to end up on a few, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Adam Scott, or just going with one and going Scottie.
I also think Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas are logical outright bets.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Both Core Plays would be easy plays if Xander had not WD last week due to a wrist injury. This is the only concern that we have with Xander, if it weren't for that he would be an elite option. Another thing with paying up for golfers this week is that Scottie is just so safe as a play that I find myself just trying to pay up for him and figuring out the rest of my build. That is another knock and Xander is that I'd just rather play Scottie.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Now personally I do not see myself paying up for Rory this week, again I would rather just play Scottie, and if I am going to pay up for other golfers that will be Hovland or Xander. Hovland has the same concerns as Xander, just Hovland has struggle a little bit more recently thus he is the best stat fit this week due to his 2024 season data. Long term he would be a great option, and I think that he is this week.
Aberg is a quality play, the only concern with him is not making a start at this event over the past 4 years. Maybe that could hinder his upside this week, but at the same time that has rarely been an issue for him.
Jordan I view more as a "shoulder-shrug" play, if I end up on him I am happy, but he is not a golfer I feel the need to target.
Clark and Scott are two elite options. Clark had a disappointing final round last week but has played well at this tournament and is a top 10 stat fit. This is another track that sets up super well for him, and given the cheap price tag I am more than happy to end up on him.
Adam Scott is a former winner at this tournament, and since than has had a little bit more of hit or miss form with a 65th and 4th place finish mixed in there, but I love that upside he has at this event. He has also been playing well thus far this season with an 8th, 20th, and 5th place finish. I get why he is priced this low, but he also should not be priced this low. I will probably be using him in my OAD leagues.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
It feels really strange that we are getting Patrick Cantlay at such a low price tag this week all because he did not start the season out hot. Personally I like he is one of the better Point Per Dollar plays that we have this week. His game sets up extremely well for this track. So does Morikawa and both Cantlay and Morikawa are the same plays to more, just Cantlay has my trust a little bit more than Morikawa.
Home game for Homa this week, but idk if that will be enough for me to want to play him as he has been terrible the last two weeks for his standards. I think I will be ok missing out of Homa if he has a good week. I would rather play Fleetwood at $1,000 cheaper who also feels safer. You also have Sam Burns who can return the same upside as Homa.
Burns has 3 straight top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour while making 8 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour. His price feels soft considering the upside he presents.
Beau Hossler might be a little bit too risky for me to fully trust but at the same time he is too cheap, and with that I think that he is easy to end up on.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Justin Thomas is a play that I think we can value more as a High Exposure play. I believe it was actually this time last year that Thomas had told the public that he had changed his diet in hopes of being healthier thus playing better. Turns out he played much worse. Since he was been on more of a normal diet he has dominated finishing no worse than 12th last week. With that I could argue that he is more of a Core Play especially considering the 20th and 6th place finish he has had at this tournament the past 2 years. That being said he did miss the cut 3 and 4 years ago.
Finau probably should have won this event 3 years ago but he choked, as did Sam Burns that year, unleashing Max Homa on the golf world as a result. But Finau has played well at this tournament, and Finau is a golfer who tends to do better on courses he has played well at in the past. I could see playing him.
The field is excited to play Cameron Young, and he does feel like a good play, but not a great play considering the hype I have seen him get thus far. To me he could come in over valued.
From there I think that Henley, and Kirk are two of the better GPP plays this week due to their upside. Either of these two golfers could finish in the top 10 and it not be shocking.
Harris English is Cameron Young without the hype to me, a golfer that has been trending in the right direction, and in the few starts he has made in this tournament (one) he played well finishing 12th. I find it tough to not play English this week due to his price.
From there I want to mention some sub 7K plays that I will be targeting.
Nick Hardy is too cheap for a golfer that has made 11 straight cuts on tour. In builds where I have Scottie I will be having some Hardy exposure. Ben Griffin, Adam Svensson, Tom Hoge, and Taylor Moore are all sub 7K plays that I like as well.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + High Exposure
GPP: Theegala, Homa, Rory
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Feel pretty good having a lineup that goes Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, and Adam Scott. The issue is closing it out with more risky plays like Kirk and Hun An.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)
We have a lot of golfers in the Yellow as over-owned this week not exactly golfer that you need to fade, but not golfers that we should go out of our way to play.
