This week have the John Deere Classic which for me is one of my favorite events because it is one of the few events that I can go to without too much of a hassle. It is an event that I can get excited to get into because of that, and this week is no exception. We have a somewhat straightforward week this week as well, the plays that we should be on are easy to spot, the difficulty comes in closing out builds, where we will be closing them out with "shoulder shrug" plays.
I do like this week for betting more so than I do for DFS just given that we are getting some good numbers on some great plays.
This Weeks Video:
- Effective Scoring
- Ball Striking
- SG AP
- PAR 4 Scoring
- Wedge Scoring
This is a unique(ish) event. A lot of this course will leave golfers with a wedge in their hands, and scoring with a wedge tends to be a predictive stat in terms of which golfers play well. This is a Par 71 so its not too shocking to see Par 4 scoring pooping as a key stat. The rest are normal stats to be looking at when we have an easier scoring event.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years John Deere Classic
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
My expectation for this week is to get 4 out of 6 across the cut line. The hope is that we can be on at least one top-10 finisher with that as well. It is a week in which we can predict but also there is some unknown nature with it as well.
Another mostly good weather event.
John Deere Classic Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Travelers Championship Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
I would say that it is very rare that we get a play like Russell Henley at the John Deere Classic as he is coming in checking all the boxes this week.
He has finished 11th, and 2nd at this event over his last 2 starts here, he has made 4 straight cuts in a row, and is ranked top 10 or better in all the key metrics that we are looking at this week. He should be a simple play this week.
Alex Smalley is a golfer coming in checking all the boxes this week, making the cut at this event the last two years, and making the cut in his last 3 starts on the PGA Tour. He is coming in top 20 or better in all the key metrics that we are looking at.
Stephan Jaeger has been playing solid golf lately, and I was a little bit shocked at his price this week because of how good of a play he is. I would argue that both him and Dylan Wu are being undervalued this week, because that their prices they make for ideal plays.
Dylan Wu is an ideal play this week, finishing 43rd at this event last year, and he is a top 5 stat fit that has shown pretty good consistency. He has been at the top of the leaderboard a lot throughout tournaments, just needs to put together a full 4 rounds. If he does it is tough to see him not in contention winning this week.
I have all of these golfers because I could see them all being in contention to win on Sunday. All of these golfers have gotten at least a taste of winning, and they are all coming in with maybe a slight flaw mostly in Course History, or having a recent missed cut, but they are all plays where the upside is going to be tough to deny.
This range is somewhat the FOMO range, and also the plays that are still good enough to go out of your way to play.
Cameron Young is a player that lately has been struggling, but they course feels like the perfect get right spot for him and his game. It is normal for golfers to go through slight breaks in their golf game after playing really well. I think that is what we have seen with Cameron Young, and like Morikawa last week it wouldn't be shocking for this to be the week for Young. I thought just based on name value people would be on him more.
Taylor Moore and Grillo are popping a little bit more than I would have expected but I still think they can be good plays for us. I see them more as GPP only plays. For what it is worth I also think that Ryan Moore is a decent play as well.
Kuest has played well on the Tour thus far and after finishing 4th, 57th, and 14tth I think we can't ignore him this week.
Kevin Yu disappointed last week, but he feels like Dylan Wu as a play last week was. Came in after a disappointing start, but still a good stat fit, and still someone as a whole is too cheap.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Nick Taylor is an interesting play this week he has good recent form rank but I think that is a lot due to his missed cuts not being terrible and having a win mixed in there, also the field sucks. He is a good stat fit, however.
Reavie, Tarren, and Glover are all golfers that fit the mold and have players that should play well this week.
Lastly, I think Greyson Sigg is the only other value play that I am comfortable with playing.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + High Exposure
GPP: All other plays
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
This week I really like being able to end up on the first 5 players here. It is closing it at at the 6.6 range that is difficult. I don't mind the idea of trying to get lucky with a play like Mouw who is a KFT player (now) and a former Pepperdine University golfer. He is ranked 6th in PGA Tour University, others ahead of him are Ludvig, and Sam Bennett, both names we already know. This is a name that we could certainly know after this week. But let's make it clear this is me trying to get lucky and force in what I believe are the top 6 plays.
You could go down from Palmer to get up to Greyson Sigg who I view as the best sub 7K play.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
A week after Ludvig was coming in over owned now we have him coming in as one of the better leverage plays. Go figure.
This week I do not see the need to pay up for any of the golfers that are coming in over valued.