We have the Mexico Open this week, which tends to have some smaller named golfers in the field, and that is what we have this week. That does not mean it is going to be be a difficult week to predict. These weeks can actually be some of the biggest edge weeks that we get in both DFS and Fantasy Golf.
This week I will be doing the write-up slightly different. I will be covering the plays the I will be on as they are listed in the player pool. I am doing that this week instead of calling out whether or not I agree with the data because we do not have proper course history this week, and the caliber of field is different this week.
Let's go ahead and dive into it.
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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Strokes Gained Off The Tee (SGOT)
Total Driving (TD)
Birdie Or better % (BOB
200+ Scoring
This is a course that we have only seen two times thus far of the PGA Tour so we do not know for sure that these will perfectly be the key stats, but what we do know is that these have been the key stats the last two years. This is a longer track, and with that golfers that tend to hit the ball longer tend to be the golfers that both have good finishes and make the cut.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Only pulling in the course history from the last 2 years at this tournament.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow T
Decent lineup process this week.
Weather:
Nothing to crazy again weather wise as it sits right now, minus Sunday where there is a some rain and a slight breeze.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Tony Finau makes perfect sense this week, one could easily just place an outright bet on him. The next two on this list are surprising to me, Taylor Pendrith, and Mark Hubbard are two golfers I was not really considering this week for outrights.
Keith Mitchell
Stephan Jaeger
Patrick Rodgers
Emiliano Grillo
Tosti
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Tony Finau is as simple as a play as it gets in a week, but that is why DK give him the price that they did. I personally like it because I hope that will deter people from playing him, but based off of the initial ownerships that is not the case. He is the top play this week, and he is being treated as such, as he should be. The thing will him as a play is that you can easily fit him in with some of the soft pricing that is out there this week in the value tier.
Grillo and Jaeger are two players that are also checking all the boxes this week. Both are on a made cut streak of 6 or more, both are solid stat fits, and both have played this course each of the last two years. I am more than happy to roster both of them this week.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
I want to start this section out in reverse order as that is how I will probably be prioritizing them in my builds.
Justin Lower is at a very strange price tag this week. He is someone that I like to bet to make the cut, and top 40. He is a play that I am going out of my way to play in DFS because he is too cheap. He made the cut at this tournament in his only start in 2022 finishing 64th. He has made 4 straight cuts in a row, and has been playing solid enough golf especially compared to the field for over his last 10 tournaments. His key stats are a slight concern but at the same time none of those key stats are alarming. He just feels like an easy play.
Alejandro Tosti is another strange priced golfer this week because he has played decently well when we have seen him thus far this season, and because he finished 10th at this tournament last year. Sure he full stat fit might not be the best (including SG Total, SGT2G, Effective Scoring), but when we just looking at the tournament key stats he looks like a great play especially because he ranks out top 10 in SGOT.
Keith Mitchell is the best stat fit int he field and make for a great GPP play. Thomas Detry is not far behind him but they both do not have any course history which is why I will be treating them as GPP only plays.
EVR would feel like a safe play if he didn't miss the in his last start, but prior to that he was playing well, he is a top 5 stat fit, and still ranks out extremely well in Recent Form even with that missed cut. (tells you the quality of the field this week). On top of that he made a start at this tournament last year finishing 33rd.
Patrick Rodgers has two top 10 finishes at this tournament over the past 2 years. He is a decently good stat fit as well. The only issue with Rodgers is that he is coming in off of two bad starts, but then again so is basically all of the field.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
In this section we have a very very solid GPP only plays in Ghim, Champ, Vegas, and Dougherty. These golfers are all great stat fits, and are all golfers that can hold the upside to give us a top 10 finish. Obviously they are all a little (or very) risky, but again that is just the week that we have.
Hojgaard, and Suh are quality plays at their price and they are both plays that I think will make the cut.
Scott Piercy to me is one of the most interesting plays this week when we consider price. The only way I can imagine that he is priced this low is because he has not made a start in 2024, and that can be HUGE. But even still giving that he has made 4 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour with all of them being good finishes. Also giving that he has two straight top 40 finishes at this tournament he is someone that I think I will be more than happy to roster him. I think if we had simply seen him thus far this season and he had one or two good starts he would be at least 2,000 more expsensive.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
All of these golfers feel like good GPP plays at their prices. Feel like the data speaks for its self with these plays.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Fianu, Grillo, Jaeger, Detry, Lower, Tosti
GPP: Mitchell, EVR, Champ, Ghim, Vegas, Dougherty, Pendrith, Kizzire, Yuan
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
The issue that I have lineup process wise is the high end golfers and what to do there. I am been trying to target Lower, Piercy, Tosti, and Jaeger as starting points for my builds (which does feel ugly) after that it is strange trying to close the builds out. I don't might the idea of switching Hubbard and Jaeger for Mitchell and Grillo. That's the issue I have this week. Seems like a good problem to have though.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)
Last week we saw that Justin Thomas was extremely high owned, and although I agreed, it did feel like a logical fade, I don't know if I see that with Finau this week. Don't get me wrong you want to be making builds without Finau but I do think (and the data does as well) that Finau is properly owned. Hojgaard, and Knapp being as high owned as they are is something that I think we should monitor.
I also think it is worth calling out that Lower, and Piercy are not getting any ownership.
