Last Week, and Preview of this week.
Last week we had another Red/Yellow week. But it turned out to be an alright week as a whole around 75 % of the player pool made the cut. The tough part about last week was nailing down a good build. If you ended up on both Fitzpatrick, and Ghim you probably didn't have a good week. If you ended up on just one well you probably had a decent week. Anytime we get a tournament playing at a new course it is tough to predict. The course ended up playing a lot easier, we know that the lower the winning score is the more variance there is to that week. That in part is why it wasn't shocking to see a lot of the Low Exposure plays, and Values finish well. What was shocking was the higher owned players not really showing up, but that was part of the worry with the major right around the corner. Now we have the major here, and it is a fun one to break down, and the field is loaded.
This week we get the PGA Championship which is going to be played in South Carolina at the "The Ocean Course". This is going to be the first time we have seen this tournament played on the PGA Tour since 2012 when Rory won the PGA Championship. With that we do not have a lot of data to go off of, but we can make some really good educated guesses on what are going to be the key stats that we want to look at. I have done this by pulling in Comp Course History from multiple locations.
Comp Course History 1 = H1 = Last Years PGA Championship + Last Years US Open
- This was done because these two tournaments directly try to make the courses play longer and much more difficult than any other tournament.
Comp Course History 2 = H2 = RBC Heritage, and RSM Classic
- These two were the only two events this year that I could see playing similar to the Ocean Course. This is mostly due to the flow of the course. Neither however played as long as the Ocean course is going to this week.
Comp Course History 3 = H3 = Corales, Puerto Rico Open, and Mayakoba
- These three courses although they tend to play extremely easy give us the best indication of who will play well. These are longer(ish) course that play even longer with the wind coming off of the ocean. This is what we are expecting this week. These also feature the same grass as The Ocean Course.
Comp Course History 4 = H4 = Masters, and Players
- The last two loaded fields that we have seen were the Masters, and the Players Championship. Never a bad thing to look at how plays have played when the pressure was on. These courses however really do not have any similarities to them. (Maybe the Players with the Par 3s).
In the free write up we provide a top play at each pricing tier. For a bigger breakdown of the event, this week click the "Join 925 Nation" Button. It's the best value in PGA DFS in the industry. There you will get our full writeup, player pool, Core Plays, Cash/GPP plays, and our Model Rankings. It's only $10 a month. Compared to other Membership sites out there this is on average 80% cheaper. Paying less for easy advice, better plays, better results, at the best value.
TOP PLAYS THIS WEEK
Justin Thomas ($11,300) - The length of the course is somewhat a worry for me with JT at this price point. By the end of the week this could just be the reason he does not win as those distances start to add up but in terms of finishing well and making the cut JT makes a lot of since. He is playing some great golf lately finishing 26th, 13th, and 21st in his last 3 starts. He has some of the best comp course history that we are looking at this week, ranking top 5 there, and he is a great stat fit ranking top 15 this week. Overall he ranks 3rd in the model, and has the highest likelihood of any golfer to make the cut this week. He is the only golfer with a 90% chance or more likelihood to make the cut.
Daniel Berger ($8,700): If Berger had not missed the cut at the Masters he would basically be a lock for me. Besides that missed cut he has finished 3rd, 13th, 18th, 18th, 9th, 35th, and 1st in those 7 events. Typically I feel like a missed is a missed cut, and we should treat them that way but for Berger his two most recent missed cuts were on the number. Berger is also a top 5 wind player in the field. The only knock on his game besides the missed cut at the Masters would be that his Long Iron is in the bottom 40% of the field this week. Everything else is looking elite for Berger. Berger ranks top 12 in the model this week and should be treated as such.
Charley Hoffman ($7,300): Hoffman is another one of those head-scratching price points this week. He has made the cut in his last 9 events with top 20 finishes in all but 2 of them. He has good comp course history ranking top 12 there, he also is a top 12 stat fit this week. He can hit it long off the tee and he shouldn't make that many bogeys. Hoffman ranks top 5 in the model this week, and has a 68% chance to make the cut this week.
The stand-out value play this week is Ryan Palmer. He has just been too good this year, and is too good of a stat fit to be priced this low. His comp course history does leave some to be desired but overall we are getting a top 20 play this low.