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PGA DFS: RBC Canadian Open Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)

This week we have the RBC Canadian Open which will be played (again) at Hamilton Country Club. We last saw this tournament played at this course in 2019, and although this course has went through renovations since then, the renovations did not drastically change how this course will play, thus a lot of the key stats from 2019 will still be key stats to look at this week.


Betting wise this does seem to be more of a simple week, whereas in DFS it feels to be a bit more of a toss up.


We have 4 solid outright bets, and one great longshot bet.


In DFS every lineup I have made thus far I did not like how it was closed out, so this week could end up being like last week where it was a very solid week betting wise, and in DFS just barely a bad week due to Andrew Novak and Chan Kim missing the cut on the number. Both will be golfers I might be on again this week, but let's go ahead and get into the deep dive.


*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

 

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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.



 

Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.


  • Birdie or Better % (BOB)

  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SGOT)

  • Total Driving (TD)

  • Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat

  • Par 4 Scoring (Par4)

  • 200+ Scoring


These key stats are based off of the 2019 results, golfers who exceled in these stats were more likely to make the cut, finish top 10, and win.


Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)


  • H1: RBC Canadian Open 2022

  • H2: RBC Canadian Open 2019

  • H3: RBC Heritage 2024

  • H4: Wells Fargo Championship 2024


The 2022 RBC Canadian Open had a course that was the most similiar to Hamilton Country Club, so I do think that can be important to look at this week. In 2019 this tournament took place at this course and that is why we are looking at that this week.


The RBC Heritage is a shorter track that has many hazards in play that is also a parkland style course. The same can be said about the Wells Fargo Championship. Now typically speaking I do not like to use Comparable Courses unless we have a week like this week where we really do not have course history to go off of. It is still best to refer to the Specialist data instead of using Comp Courses.


SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.


If it were not for how easy PGA DFS has been this season I would be grading this week as a red week because I do not like the lineups I have been able to get to this week. That being said that will be the same for everyone else as well, and given the big edges we have seen this season I do expect that to continue this week. So I will be treating this week like a normal week.


Weather:

We have slight potential for a delay on Friday due to storms, that is about as risky as the weather gets this week. Weather should not play a factor this week like it did last week.


Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)


3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.



Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

Picture 2 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 70% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

My Outright Bets:

  • Scottie Wire to Wire 18/1

  • Morikawa 12/1

  • Lucas Glover 66/1

  • Mark Hubbard 75/1 (originally 100/1)


Toying around with the idea of getting on Billy Horschel, Tony Finau, Thomas Detry and/or Harris English. All four are not typical golfers I'd like to get to, but this isn't a typical week. Normally I like to narrow my outrights to 7 golfers, but with Scottie this week I am not sure that is needed. If you're not betting Scottie I would be fine rolling with all 4. (Wednesday Add - Called out on live stream / outright video, Keegan Bradley 55/1)


Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most

Takeaways:

All three golfers are clearly the best options this week, they have tremendous form, are all great stat fits, and are all great specialists. In DFS I will be trying to get at least 2 of these golfers in all of my builds. Outright wise I expect them all the be in contention to win on Sunday.


They are all great outright bets, if I had to do placement bets I would do Conners and Noren to top 10, and Rory to top 5.


High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Takeaways:

Shane Lowry, Aaron Rai, and Mark Hubbard are all plays that should be very safe options as they are all coming in checking all the boxes this week. The concern that I have we these three is the lack of consistent upside from them. They do have upside though, and I do think we need to be going to target all three of them as well. They should be safe and provide some upside as well. I would be fine using all three as outright bets as well.


Adam Svensson has one major knock, and one slight knock. The slight knock is that he missed the cut at this event in 2019. The major knock is that he is a horrible stat fit. The Canadian golfer is however in good form making the cut in his last 7 starts. That makes him worth a look at this price.


Kevin Tway I was a little bit surprised by his price, and his price is what makes him a golfer I have found myself going out of my way to target this week. He is in the 6th best form in the field, with 3 top 25 finishes over his past 4 starts on tour. This is a track that he should play well at as well.


Patton Kizzire has only made 4 cuts this season, those 4 cuts were in his last four events though where his worst finish with 28th. He is coming into this event going solid golf, and this is what makes him a strong option at this cheap price tag.


If I am playing Rory this week I will be playing Kevin Tway and Patton Kizzire as well with him.



Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Takeaways:

Fleetwood, Mitchell, Kim, EVR, Thompson, and Pendrith are all golfers I could see put together a good week and end up in contention to win, they are all mostly either in great form or are great stat fits, in some cases the golfers fit both categories. I see them all as great upside GPP plays, but not great cash plays.


Henrik Norlander is another interesting play this week as he has made 4 straight cuts, with an average finish of 35th during that span. He ranks out 24th in recent form, and all other metrics that we have suggest that he should be a made cut or close to a made cut. He is someone at this cheap price tag I am happy to get to, but only when needed.


Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

Takeaways:

All these golfers I see as last man in a build type plays, nothing more than that.


Others I might be on: Aaron Cockerill, Troy Merritt, and Kevin Yu.

 

Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.


Cash: Core,

GPP: Mid Exposure plays + Burns + Dougherty


SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

This is a lineup that I think I like the most this week, as I can get my exposure to 3 safe plays that should also present winning upside. Mark Hubbard should be a safe play this week as well. Norlander we are playing to make the cut which I think he will do. Tway is the best value on paper this week.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.


Projected ownership will be available Tuesday Evening.



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