Maximizing Your PGA DFS Strategy for RBC Heritage 2024: Expert Betting Picks and Fantasy Golf Analysis. Giving you the step-by-step process to go about making the best decisions possible for this weeks tournament, but first a quick recap from last week.
Last week was another good week with top play Scottie Scheffler getting the win, along with that 19/21 golfers made the cut, and 5 out of the top 14 ranked players in the player pool made the cut.
This week is a very different week for DFS purposes as it is a no-cut event, and in a no-cut event we have to use a lot more game theory than most weeks to be successful. The easiest way to be successful is to concentrate on which golfers from the High Tier are most likely to give you at the very least a top 10 finish. This week we can easily see that will be Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. Then you want to pair those golfers with value plays that are the most likely to finish in the top 50% of the field. The reason this is strategy is successful is because we do not need to worry about golfers missing the cut, so the scoring difference scored for golfers that finish 40th-70th is not that great, and you can typically gain more points by focusing on the top end golfers that will get bonus points based off of where they finish.
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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Scoring (Combo Stat - Bogey Avoidance, Birdie To Bogey Ratio, Scoring Before the Cut) ESCR
Ball Striking (BS)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Par 4 Scoring (Par4)
Good Drive % (GD%)
This weeks tournament is all about golfers setting themselves up for the next shot. Golfers can get away with hitting ok shots, here and there on this course, but the more they do that the more they will get penalized. This is a course where golfers need to keep setting themselves up for birdie putts.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
We have seen over the past few years that even though everyone knows they should do studs/duds lineups on average to have success in DFS during no-cut events they do not, and that is because it get tough to pass up on plays like Corey Conners, or Shane Lowry who on paper are great plays, and plays that we would typically go out of our way to target. But due to the nature of no-cut events where maximizing your chances of getting 1 or 2 top 10 finishers is key, we are forced to go more studs and duds. That is the edge this week. The good thing is that they pricing is pretty soft to the point where we can fit Xander and Scottie into builds.
Weather:
Weather does not seem to be an issue this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
This week we have the most "good" outright bets we have had for an event thus far this season. This has been a sign of tournaments being easier to predict, so I thought that would be worth noting. This week its either you're betting Scottie or the field. Below are the golfers I would go with if I were to choose not to bet on Scottie.
My Outright Bets:
Xander 12/1
Wyndham Clark 33/1
Cameron Young 28/1
Ludvig Aberg 12/1
Corey Conners 50/1
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are easy plays this week as both are coming in checking all the boxes in terms of form, stat fit, course history and specialist data. I will be trying to get one or both of them in at least 75% of my builds. That is how good of plays they are on paper this week. The only worry would be a potential Masters hangover.
Ludvig Aberg doesn't have course history so he is technically not checking all the boxes this week but besides that he is an elite play. We have seen that Aberg does not need course history to have success. In lineups where I am not getting to Scottie I will be getting to Aberg.
Cameron Young is a little bit more of an upside play rather than a safe play, which for a no-cut event I am happy to do. Young has finished top 10 in two straight starts on the tour, resulting in him being top 10 in recent form. He is also top 10 or better in all the key metrics we have this week. Young has been someone that has been trending in the right direction for sometime but this is the best he has looked on paper thus far this season, as a result I think this could finally be the week in which we see him get a win.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
I view these golfers all as great secondary options to the studs I have listed above. I like these all because I could see them all in contention to win on Sunday. At the same time given their prices they are all more difficult to get to.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
My worry with all of these plays is that more likely than not they will not payoff their price tag, at the same time I do see all four having the upside to be in contention to win on Sunday, as all of them have done that at this tournament over the past 4 years. Again the issue this week is that we want to more do studs and duds, so the Low Exposure plays I will be more treating as core plays this week.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
You can easily see which 2 golfers out of these range I will be going out of my way to target. But why do i have Putnam, Detry and Webb in here?
Andrew Putnam has been a golfer that has given us great results relative to his price, and ownership plenty of times over the past year. He has a 14th place finish, and an 8th place finish on the PGA Tour recently, thus at this price tag I think he could provide massive upside.
Detry I am purely just trying to chase the recent upside we have seen from him.
Webb is a former winner at this event, and he is someone that has been playing better this year than he did last.
I see all of these golfers at the very least finishing better than what they are priced at which will be key this week.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Glover, Eckroat, Webb, Conners
GPP: Everyone Else
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Now this build is very much dependent on Scottie and/or Xander getting the win or at the very least top 5 finishes. This also depends on one of the four values greatly producing more than their price suggests. If this is too risky for you, you could easily jump from Xander to Young, and then move up from Putnam to another play.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
I do think this week could end up being a pretty big ownership leverage week just seeing that Clark and Conners are only around 10% owned.