The Zurich Classic is one of my favorite events this year, because it is a little bit different thus a little bit refreshing. For instance last week was a good week for DFS with the RBC Heritage, but there isn't that much that goes into that, it is basically just doing what we know will lead to success which is targeting the studs and duds. For the Zurich Classic you sort of have to work for it this week, due to it being a team event, and because of that this can create a pretty big edge for DFS and betting purposes.
We have seen that over the past few years this event has seen an average of 5% or less of lineups getting 6/6 across the cut line. Meaning that if you get 6/6 across the cut line you should be in for a good week. Knowing that you will most likely get 5/6 across the cut line you can pair a team like Xander and Cantlay, with a value team. I can this scheduling in a missed cut. The hope is the value team makes the cut. If they don't at least the top team will score enough points especially compared to other 5 out of 6 builds that did not target the top team.
What you need to know for the Zurich Classic
Team Event
Only one player per team will account for Fantasy Points
33 Teams and Ties make the cut.
Round 1 and 3 will be Best Ball
Round 2 and 4 will be Alternate Shot
Some NineToFive Golf Tools will not be working this week. (Mostly due to a lot of data coming in as "player/player" rather than just separate data points.
In the NineToFive Data, the Model Rank, Fantasy Points, and Cut % are based off of the team
In the NineToFive Data only one player has a fantasy score projection.
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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Scoring (Combo Stat - Bogey Avoidance, Birdie To Bogey Ratio, Scoring Before the Cut) ESCR
Ball Striking (BS)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Total Driving (TD)
Good Drive % (GD%)
Greens Gained (GG)
These are stats that I have used the past 3 years at this tournament to some decent success. The reason why I like using these stats is because we are just targeting "good golf" players need to set their partners up for success, to either be able to attack a pin or avoid a big hole depending on the day. By using the stats above we are able to minimize risk while always maximize upside.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
It seems like not many people are covering the Zurich Classic this week possibly due to people being lazy, and if people are going to be lazy this week this could create a big edge lineup wise.
Weather:
Weather does not seem to be an issue this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
We have 3 teams that are considered "Good" outright bets. Xander and Cantlay, Lowry and Rory, and Theegala and Will Zalatoris. It wouldn't really be hard to imagine any of those teams winning it, but I might just be going with Cantlay and Xander.
My Outright Bets:
Xander/Cantlay
Zalatoris/Theegala
Kim/Ghim
Pan/Yu
Morikawa/Kitayama
Lower/Wu
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
This week is a lot like last week to me in terms of I want to JAM in the top play as much as possible, and it is pretty clear that the top team this week is Cantlay and Xander. Cantlay has been a golfer that has been trending in the right direction, and Xander is the second best golfer in the world by most measures. They have both played this course extremely well together and that is because their games are very similar to each other. Neither is going to make too many mistakes and with that they can typically capitalize on their opportunities.
The next team that one should prioritize getting to is Chan Kim and Doug Ghim. Now this is mostly due to price, but it is also due to Kim being in some strong form making 8 straight cuts in a row including a top 10 finish last week. Both golfers are pretty strong stat fits. Ghim may not have played this course extremely well in the past but at least he does have experience in this event. Basically every team is going to be risky this week, and this is a risk at this price tag that I am willing to get to.
That will also be the case with the next few teams as well. Taylor Moore is in the 6rh best form in the field, looking like one of the strong options this week which is the opposite with what we have seen from this team in the past. In the past his teammate Matthew NeSmith was the ringer and Moore was the risky play this year NeSmith is the one that has not been playing well leading into this event. But the team has finishing 4th and 7th the last two years which is something I cannot ignore.
CT Pan and Kevin Yu are a team that I really REALLY like this week as I believe they provide winning upside. This is mostly due to Kevin Yu who is a golfer that is in the top of a lot of PGA Tour stats, but his issue is that he typically makes too many mistakes especially around/on the putting green. Him being paired with Pan who is a "safe" golfer is something that I really like this week. You have Yu being aggressive and scoring a lot and you have Pan being safe. This could end up being an elite combo this week. It is risky/reward but that is the week that we have.
The team of Justin Lower and Dylan Wu is the one team that to me on paper seems vastly underpriced. This is due to them playing in this event twice, missing the cut last year but finishing 19th the year prior to that. They are both good enough plays on paper, but both golfers have made at least 3 straight cuts on tour, and both golfers typically play well enough.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Rory and Lowry as a team is highly appealing, and I think this is the first time this year where Rory is actually correctly priced. He is a play that makes sense here, and it wouldn't be showing at all to see these two in contention to win. There games compliment each other extremely well as well.
Theegala and Zalatoris are team "get hot" as they are two golfers that when they are on they are on, and I could see this team potentially having a run a way win if they are on their game. The thing that I like a lot about this team is that both golfers have played in this event before. That could lead to a pretty big edge down the stretch.
Morikawa and Kitayama are my favorite Darkhorse pick to win this week. Morikawa has been playing much better recently finishing 9th and 3rd in his last two events. He has also played in this team event in all three years, although they have been bad starts here I still think that can be important over teams that have not made a start here. His teammate Kitayama has played well at this event finishing 19th last year. He is actually a better stat fit, and specialist than Morikawa this week. So basically if we get Kitayama playing like he has been this whole season, and Morikawa playing like he has the last two weeks this team would be tough to beat.
From there we have two teams that I think are worth looking at but a little bit too hit or miss to fully trust as core plays at their price tags, and I almost think that those two teams point to why I made the other two similar teams core plays.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
This range is basically team vibes, but in a controlled way. You have the Fitzpatrick bros who finished 19th at this event last year, and now we are actually getting Alex Fitzpatrick coming in playing well. It would not be shocking to see this team put up another good week here.
Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor played in this event together last year and the vibes were great as they finished 2nd. Team Canada is not coming in with the best form, and as a result they do feel a bit overpriced, but at the same time it would not be shocking to see this team produce a good result here.
Billy Horschel loves this event, and I am not sure it matters who his teammate is who will get them fired up and ready to go. Good thing for him is that he is coming in off a victory and 3 out of his last 4 starts have been top 12 or better finishes. His teammate has also made 3 straight cuts in a row.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
The high priced teams here are all a little bit too priced up.
The value based teams are all team that I see making the cut, or at least give us a good chance at a made cut.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Cantlay
GPP: Everyone Else
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Yes any build you end up on this week is going to lack safety and that is this build as well, but I think going with a lineup path along this route is the route to go.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
No ownership this week.