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PGA DFS: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson - Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)

Updated: May 1

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson formally known as the AT&T Byron Nelson takes place this week and it should feature a lot of birdies. The tournament winner shot at least twenty under par in all 3 years that this event has been held at TPC Craig Ranch. This will be an event that we will need to focus on golfers that can score, but what is unique about this course is that it has 13 holes with water hazards in play. So we will also need to look at golfers that will not make big mistakes.


Before we get into the top picks, bets, values, player pool and lineup process for this week let's do a quick recap from last week.


Last week I thought it was a big edge week on paper and that was the result that occurred, I ended up winning the Mini Max, as well at going 30-0 in Head-to-Head matchups. This is due to 4 out of of the 5 core plays making the cut.


To summarize the hot streak continued into 5 straight good events. Now the question is what about this week, what are the expectations for this week.


Well typically speaking these "easy" scoring events lead to the highest variance that we get in PGA DFS, thus these are typically events that I do not want to target as much as other events. However this week we are getting some good soft pricing on plays, and that will make the lineup process easier.


*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

 

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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.


 

Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.


  • Effective Scoring (Combo Stat - Bogey Avoidance, Birdie To Bogey Ratio, Scoring Before the Cut) ESCR

  • Par 5 Scoring (Par5)

  • Greens Gained (GG)

  • Birdie or Better % (BOB)


The concentration this week is just on golfers who can score. That is what has led to success in the past here, and that is what we should be expecting to occur again this week.


Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)


Years: 2023, 2022, 2021


SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.


Another yellow week this week, as it is a week where I could see there being a lot of success, but all it will take is one good play on paper to miss the cut, for this week to go from a good week or bad week. That is how much scoring matters this week.


Weather:

It is in Texas and the weather could change, but for now the weather is looking good.


Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)


3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.



Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

We have one good outright bet on paper this week. Which as we have seen this yearly this could be a way of calling out that it could be a more random week. I will say I do like Si Woo Kim as an Outright Bet.


My Outright Bets:

  • Si Woo Kim

  • Adam Scott

  • Mark Hubbard

  • Alex Noren

  • Tom Hoge

  • Hun An


I also don't mind Chan Kim and Justin Lower as long-shot bets but I would rather just bet them to finish top 40.


Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most


Takeaways:

The Core Plays to me this week are pretty straight forward. All the golfers are in great form, and some of the best form in the field, all making at least 3 straight cuts. All have made at least 2 cuts at this event over the past 3 years. The only slight concern is with Adam Scott where his not the best stat fit compared to his price tag.


Still he has been playing solid golf this season, and we should be able to trust Adam Scott to make the cut.


I think it is worth pointing out that Mark Hubbard being priced this low is a little bit strange, he does feel like a free square this week. I just hope that he isn't mega chalk because on paper he is too good of a play at too cheap of a price tag.


High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Takeaways:

The High Exposure plays are plays that are just missing a little bit of something for me this week, but still look like elite plays. Hun An has been too hit or miss recent, but he is a golfer that can get hot and score. I do expect him to have a good week, at the same time it would not be shocking to see him miss the cut. The same thing could be said for Stephan Jaeger. Jaeger however is a better stat fit, and has been a little bit more reliable this season. Both golfers rank out extremely well, and both golfers are plays that you should have exposure to in GPPs.


Keith Mitchell is a play that I do see more as a GPP only play as well, but besides his course history he is top 11 or better in all the other key metrics that we look at. I love his stat fit for this week, and he is someone that should be able to make the cut and provide a top 20 finish.


The only knock that I have on Chan Kim this week is that he has not made a start at this track, besides that he is looking like a solid play.


The only knock on Justin Lower is that he doesn't pop as much as I would like but at the same time there is nothing that would point to him having a bad week this week.


Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Takeaways:

Peter Kuest I worry could end up being a logical fade if he gets too chalky, but the last 4 times we have seen him on the PGA Tour he has made the cut. I say that because he has played poorly on the KFT this season. He also did finish 14th at this event last year.


Thomas Detry is a play that I worry I might not be on enough, but that is because he does feel slightly too high priced. He is sporting 3 top 20 finishes in his last 4 starts on the PGA Tour though, and does rank 4th in BOB % so it would not be shocking at all to see him have a big week this week.


Adam Schenk gets knocked this week for having terrible course history. He does however ranked top 5 in Recent Form Rank. So it would not be shocking to see him have a big week.


Thompson feels like a great GPP play as he ranks out top 15 in Specialist Ranking, and top 11 as a Stat Fit. He has made 3 straight cuts on the PGA Tour as well. He is looking like a solid GPP play.


Lanto Griffin seems to be trending in the right direction, and he just feels too cheap for a golfer that should be able to make the cut.


Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

Takeaways:

Jordan is clearly overpriced this week, but I still need some exposure to him as he has finished 2nd and 9th at this event.


The other three plays are just good enough plays at their priced.


Lower Exposure plays: Nate Lashley, Greyserman, Bridgeman

 

Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.


Cash: Core + Lower

GPP: Hun An, Jaeger, Derty, Michell, Kuest, Jordan


SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup

Not sold on this build completely, but it does seem like a build that will get 5/6 across the cut line.


Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

So I am currently overweight on Si Woo Kim, so I do hate that the Ownership leverage is telling us to potentially fade him. I will say Min Woo Lee at that ownership is an easy fade, and Tom Kim is an easy fade at that ownership as well. I am also pretty shocked at the love Jordan is getting this week. There is no need to play him. As a result of Jordan and Si Woo being so high owned it makes sense why Jason Day is a play you can be overweight on the field.


I will say I am pretty shocked that Hubbard is not higher owned, I would imagine that his gets corrected as the week progress, if not that could be huge. I also love that Davis Thompson is under 10% owned as well, now he is still a GPP only play but he is looking like one of the better GPP plays.

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