top of page

PGA DFS: The Masters - Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Ownership Leverage, and Fades)

This week we have the 2024 Masters tournament which on paper seems to be pretty easy to predict this year. We have a lot of soft pricing in both the betting market and in DFS. Leading to plays and bets that we are basically being forced into by "Vegas". I will breakdown those plays for you as well as get into my lineup approach for this week, my player pool, cash plays, GPP plays, and talk about the ownership.

If you guys enjoy this writeup, and have a Twitter account, a like/retweet is greatly appreciated. Linked here is my twitter:

A quick recap from last week. Last week went as expected meaning that it was a good week, with a 5 Core Plays making the cut, thus leading us down a profitable week, which was expected.


I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.

Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.


Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

  • Effective Scoring (Combo Stat - Bogey Avoidance, Birdie To Bogey Ratio, Scoring Before the Cut) ESCR

  • Ball Striking (BS)

  • Total Driving (TD)

  • Stroke Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G)

  • Bad Weather Scoring

In simple what we want to look at golfers that are both long and accurate, that do not make that many stupid mistakes. Also due to the weather seemingly being confirmed to be bad for at least 2 days I wanted to pull in "Bad Weather Scoring" a little bit more than I would each week (in the Specialist data). I do think that this could prove to be a key metric to be focusing in on.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020


Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

Another Yellow Green week for me as I do love the pricing that we are getting this week, and I do love just how many casual people are playing PGA DFS this week. The only thing that gives me slight pause is that year in and year out we get some sort of elite golfer missing the cut. Last year it was Corey Conners, the year before that it was Xander. That stuff is just naturally going to occur at a course that can sometimes even penalize good shots.


The biggest worry I have when looking at the weather, and putting an emphasis on it this week is that on Thursday maybe the rounds are all delayed and maybe a lot of the round 2 rounds do not finish until Saturday. Thus that would create a huge tee time advantage one way. Due to this I do think that it makes sense to make some builds on each side of the tee time waves.

Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.

Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

I am pretty much agree with a lot of these outright options as great outright picks. For me the ones that I like the most are Xander, and Hideki. (Reason as to why are listed below)

My Outright Bets:

  • Xander

  • Hideki

  • Cam Smith

  • Shane Lowry

  • Si Woo Kim

  • Corey Conners

Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most


Scottie Scheffler is going to be extremely difficult not to get to this week as he is coming in checking all the boxes, we literally do not have a bad data point when looking at Scottie as a play this week. the only concern would be his pricing, but for some reason in a smaller field event with soft pricing he is not at $13,000. This actually seems like some good value to me.

From there Xander Schauffele is a play that just makes too much sense, and in most situations he should be your highest owned golfer, as he should be the first player into your builds. The reason why this is, is due to him ranking as the 3rd best Specialist, tied for the best stat fit, and is in the 2nd best form (behind Scottie). The one knock on Xander this week is his missed cut at this event 2 years ago. That was more of a random missed cut, but still something to factor in, but he arguably should be the 2nd highest priced golfer this week, and we get him at below 10K. STEAL! He has been knocking on the door to win a bunch over the past year, and it just feels like things will come together for Xander to FINALLY get his big WIN.

Hideki is just such an easy click this week as well at such a cheap price tag. He has finished top 16 or better in the past 4 Masters including a win 3 years ago. He has great form ranking 6th in the field with an average finish of 6.5 in his last 4 starts. He is actually coming in as a better play than he was when I recommended him as an outright when he won the masters.

Shane Lowry is essentially Hideki but without the win recently on the PGA Tour, and a win at the Masters, but things could break extremely well for Lowry this week as he is one of the better bad weather plays in the field. He is also one of the best Hard scoring specialists in the field. The biggest appeal for Lowry this week is that he is the 4th best stat fit in the field, ranking top 10 in all the 5 key stats that I am looking at this week. Regardless of his result this is just the correct play at this price on paper.

Like Xander, Corey Conners has one knock, and that is a missed cut that this event. For Conners however his missed cut was last year, which is a little bit troubling. At the same time coming into this event last year he was coming in off of a victory, (which we tend to fade). Conners has been one of the safest golfers on the PGA Tour over the past year making 16 straight cuts. Prior to his missed cut at this event last year he had 3 straight top 10 finishes. This course clearly suits his game which is why it makes sense that he ranks out top 20 or better in all the key metrics. He should be priced at least in the 8K range thus he is simply too cheap.

High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)


I have taken an extremely risk adverse approach to Rory thus far this season, and it has not hurt me once thus far this season, even last week with how much cheaper Hideki was than Rory, it made sense to just play Hideki. Now this week I do think Rory makes sense. He finally should have that upside that people were trying to chase, and honestly that could have been by design. I think Rory has been purposely trying to peak his game at the correct time. He is clearly a little bit more of risk/reward based play due to his course history, but you are playing him for his upside to give you a Win or a top 5 finish. That is what you're trying to get out of him. I also think the LIV stuff be done and over will be pressure off his shoulders, and I think he will be able to swing freely this week.

Cam Smith is a strange one, his odds have gotten worse simply because he had food poison (apparently) at a LIV event last week. Another concern is that he has not had that many competitive events, but that is the case with all LIV golfers, and I also think that is why we are getting him at such an extreme price tag. Smith has great course history here finishing top 10, 3 years in a row prior to last year when he finished 34th. It is nice to know when Smith is not on his game that we should at the very least get a made cut, and when he is on his game he has the upside to win. He is also one of the best bad weather / hard scoring specialist in the field. He will be an anchor in a lot of builds this week due to his price.

Tony Finau has been very hit or miss this year, and his game does seem to be a little off more so than it ever has been coming into the Masters over the past 4 years. However he is still a top 10 stat fit, and does have great course history. It would not be shocking to see him put together another good year here.

Matt Fitzpatrick is a play that I have gotten to more and more as the week has progressed to the point where I am thinking about using him as an outright bet as well. If you look at this course history he has gotten better at each start at the Masters over the past 4 years. He is also one of the best bad weather / hard scoring specialist in the field. The biggest knocks on Fitzpatrick this week is his Stat Fit, and his Recent Form, which apparently seems due to a driver modification that was made that he did not know about. Since this has been corrected he has finished top 10 in two straight weeks. He is trending the right direction, and if anything he makes for a great GPP play. But simply put he is priced based off of how he was playing a month ago not based off of how he was playing up until last week.

Si Woo Kim would easily be a core play this week if it weren't for the windy conditions as he does tend to struggle in those conditions. Out of all the golfers that I have listed already he is the one golfer that is worse than the field on average. I didn't knock him too much still making him a High Exposure play this week, and that is due to how good of a play on paper he is this week. Making the cut in 10 straight starts with him form trending towards a victory. Overall he is coming into this event with the 7th best form. Besides his bad weather play nothing else is really alarming when it comes to his game. He is coming in checking all the boxes this as well.

Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.


Aberg has just been playing too well to not be in on in some form or fashion this week, but at his price he can only be considered a GPP only play.

Theegala however is looking like an elite option at a cheap price tag, and he is one of those golfers that when his game in on he can give us a top 10 finish, like he did last year at the Masters. This year he is a much better play on paper than he was last year at the Masters. I have toyed around with making him an outright bet as well but at the end of the day I just think he would choke under the pressure.

I do not really care for LIV golf stats too much, form many reasons, but in short they are incomplete, I do think they are worth monitoring and noting, but nothing that should get you on or off a play. The reason why someone like Patrick Reed is considered a good play is because he has tremendous course history here finishing top 10 3 times over the past 4 years, and no missed cuts. His specialist data tells us that he also plays better compared to the field in tougher scoring conditions. If you do choose to look at this LIV golf stats you will see his last two starts were good finishes. (Possibly making him even more appealing)

Russell Henley has great upside this week as he does each and every week, but I still do not view him as a safe play. His recent form points to why, finishing 4th, MC, 4th, and 41st. His course history here is appealing though finishing 4th last year and 30th the year before that. The whole point of playing Russell Henley this week is to chase his upside and not really care about his downside. The downside is he doesn't win you a GPP. The upside is that he does win you a GPP.

Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays


For Rahm the only reason I am knocking him is that he is just slightly over priced this week, but you still want exposure to him incase he wins this tournament back to back.

Clark is a first timer at this course, but watching his press conferences, about his prep for this week, he is probably more prepared than a lot of golfers who have only one start here. He is also a bit overpriced. Like compared to Fitzpatrick and Clark there isn't a huge difference, yet Fitzpatrick is more than $2,000 cheaper. That is where I am knocking Clark the most is with his price.

Cameron Young is another play that I think has the upside to win a GPP, but he is still to risky at this price as well.

Fleetwood is getting more and more steam as the week has progressed, and I worry he could come in too high owned. Still he is a solid play on paper. The biggest problem with him is that there are better plays around him.

English would have been one of my favorite plays this week if not for his missed cut last week. I still think he is vastly too cheap this week, and I still think that he makes the cut, but he is now more of a lineup filler.

Same goes for Taylor More and Austin Eckroat. All three golfers are very cheap, but I have barely felt the need to go out of my way to roster them.


Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week


(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core + Si Wood, Reed, Smith

GPP: Rory, Henley, Theegala, Clark


*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup

This week the biggest issue I have with lineup path is just having slightly too much salary for what I view as the best build I could make this week. Simply corrections would be going down from Cam Smith to Fitzpatrick. Or going down from Si Woo Kim to Taylor Moore. Either options are good options. But that is my current issue is getting my favorite lineup path in.

Again want to note that building based off of tee times could end up being pivot this week.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

Last week we ended up with a lot of golfers that were easy fades because they were just coming over owned, and that is what occurred. This week it is the opposite. Where Currently there isn't any bad chalk. However we do have some good leverage spots on a lot of the high end golfers. That is due to the ownership being as spread out as it is. I would see the ownerships that we are getting this week are some of the best I have seen. So again the edge could be more in the weather this week rather than someone being too high owned.


  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • TikTok


establish in 2018

bottom of page