Well we finally had the dreaded week we knew would eventually come after the long break in the tour. That being said the overall theme last week was Studs and Duds approach. All of the Studs that we were on made the cut. Bryson was an easy play, but he finished Top 10 again. Last week was a crazy week as a whole where only 7% of lineups on DK had 5/6 across the cut like. Every single mid/low tier play that was high owned missed the cut. Last week was not a normal week, and it is a week that rarely ever happens across the industry.
This week we get the Rocket Mortgage Classic played at Detroit Golf Club. This is the second year of this event. Meaning we do not have a ton of data to go off of. The "Course History" is compiled from last years results, and Donald Ross (Course Designer) comp courses.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED/Yellow
Still not a slate that we can overly attack, but it is the best slate that I believe we have gotten. Ownership maybe something to we have to watch out for. There are about 4 obvious plays this week, if they get too chalky I may like this week even less.
KEY STATS: Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B), Total Driving (TD), Ball Striking (BS), Driving Accuracy (DA), Par 5 Scoring.
Last year we saw that Driving Distance did not really matter. That Driving Accuracy was the best indicator off the tee. Birdie to Bogey ratio was a key stat for this tournament as well.
BETTING:
Fine betting on Bryson, Webb, or Hatton to win this week, just not in love with their odds. I will be chasing more long shot odds.
Winner: Doc +5000, Sneds +5,500, Mark Hubbard +12500, Stuard +12500, Tim Wilkinson +50,000, Trahan + 75000
H2H: Brian Stuard over Tom Hoge /// Adam Hadwin over Brian Harman ///
Top 20: Tim Wilkinson +1000
Group Winner: Doc +300
SLATE BREAKDOWN:
Bryson, Webb, and Hatton are all elite pay up for plays. As always if you have to money left over you should pay up for them. (Don't feel I have to write those 3 up, they are somewhat obvious plays compared to the rest of the field)
Viktor Hovland: Hovland has been great since the break, in 3 starts he has an average finish of 18th. He also had a T13 finish at this event last year. He ranks out as a top 10 plays, and grades out as someone who is highly likely to make the cut. Hovland is one of my favorite plays this week, I just wish he was slightly cheaper.
Sungjae Im: Im struggled two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage, and then last week he did not exactly play well. But just like DJ, these top notch players do not take long to figure out what is slightly off in there game. Im had a top 25 finish here last year, which is where I see him finishing again this year. He is a top 10 play, and he game really does not have a weakness this season.
Rory Sabbatini: Good ole SABS, not sure I love him as a play this week, but he has shown some decent recent form. He has made 5 straight cuts on tour including two straight cuts after break finishing 14th, and 21st. He made the cut at this event last year finishing Top 5. He also made the cut at one of the Comp courses I am looking at. My worry, and why he will only be a Low Exposure play is because he is not the best stat fit on paper.
Doc Redman: What I love about Doc this week is that his recent form has gotten better each week. Finishing 58th, 21st, and now 11th last week. What I dislike is his salary this week. Doc had been a top value play option for us a ton this season. I believe the salary increase is due to 1) Other people figuring out that Doc is a stud, and 2) the fact that he finished 2nd here last year. If he gets hot with his putter he could win this week.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin is a guy that is just a cut maker. He has made 9 out of 10 on the year. He is an elite stat fit this week, and it would not shock me if he gets a top 10 finish this week. If he had Donald Ross course experience (recently) I would be on him a lot more. Still I'd imagine this course plays a lot like some courses in Canada. (Where he is from). Hadwin is Top 30 in every stat I am looking at this week besides Par 5 Scoring. Meaning he should make the cut.
Brandt Snedeker: Sneds played horrible two weeks ago, then came out and got a 41st finish last week. We really do not have the full picture of Sneds form currently which is a worry, but because of that we are getting him at a nice price point. Sneds finished 5th at this event last year, and 1st at one of the Comp courses. Now he isn't Striking the ball the best right now, but he does rank out top 35 in Strokes Gained Total, and Birdie to Bogey Ratio. Meaning that if he figures it out he could easily have a top finish again.
Brian Stuard: Full Disclosure I like Stuard a lot more than I probably should, but this play stood out to me. He has made the cut in 3 straight events, including a top 20 finish last week. He had a 5th finish he last year, he also played this course a bit while at college at Oakland U. (30 mins from the course). He is an accurate player that does not make many mistakes. He should be player that makes the cut.
Mark Hubbard: Hubbard has 3 straight made cuts since the break, and he also grades out as a top 25 stat fit. He is essentially the play that Stuard is, just without the course experience. Both Stuard and Hubbard are close to being plug and plays given their salaries.
Harry Higgs: The only positive of Higgs missing the cut last week is that we get him at a really cheap price point this week. He had made the cut in the last 2 events since break prior to last week, and is a top 20 stat fit. He is a play that should make the cut this week.
DJ TRAHAN: Trahan is priced at 6.0K. He got off to a great start on Thursday, then really sucked on Friday. That is part of the reason why he is priced this low. It is very rare to find a solid stat fit at 6K. I mean Trahan could have a top 10 finish and I would not be shocked.
Tim Wilkinson: In 5 of Wilkinson's made cuts this year he has finished 32 or better in all but one of them. So when he does make the cut he is a great value. Last week Wilkinson played fine, shooting -3 just one off the cut. He is a top 25 stat fit, and play that I think will make the cut this week.
Stat Pull:
MODEL RANKING:
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
PLAYER POOL:
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Stuard, Glover, Hubbard, Hadwin, Hovland
GPP: Redman, Trahan, Varner, Sneds.
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Round 1 Showdown Slate:
This is an interesting slate, I never really liked to attack a Round 1 Showdown slate unless there is a weather/ tee time advantage. But we can pay up for some studs. Heck you can fit Bryson, Webb, and Hatton into your build comfortably.
Ranking Plays in Order:
Bryson, Webb, Varner, Wilkinson, Scottie, Hatton, Im, Hubbard, Hovland, Trahan, Doc, Stuard, and Duncan.
I think Bryson, Webb, Hatton, Trahan, Wilkinson, and another player is great.