Rocket Mortgage Classic this week, which takes place in Detroit, Michigan on a Donald Ross track. This tournament has been a weird one in the 4 years we have seen it, it has been "controlled variance." This is an event that features low scores, thus we tend to see more random missed cuts as the low scoring brings the rest of the field into play. But the last two years outright wise I have been on a total of 5 players that have finished runner-up. This shows that we still get a good amount of predictability.
In the below writeup I do not mention Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, or Collin Morikawa all of which I think are great GPP plays. I also think that Kim and Morikawa make for good outright bets. I was struggling to pay up for them which is why they are not in the player pool. I would say that I would be comfortable playing Kim and Morikawa as High Exposure plays as well this week.
This Weeks Video:
- Effective Scoring
- Ball Striking
- SG AP
- PAR 5 Scoring
We can see that Par 5 scoring and Birdie Or Better % are the most two key stats, golfers will need to convert on their scoring tries if they are going to make the cut and find themselves in contention. How do golfers give themselves scoring opportunities? By having good Ball Striking / Strokes Gained Approach. Good Drive % is not a huge factor in terms of upside, but it is a little bit more predictive in terms of which golfers will make the cut.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Rocket Mortgage Classic
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
I have mostly liked the builds that I have been able to end up on this week thus far, but it is a week in which we know to expect some variance so I do not want to go crazy.
The plays I will be on with be direct, but it is just being on the correct ones at the right exposures is the worry.
Another mostly good weather event. (Saturday possible delays)
US Open Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Travelers Championship Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama are two golfers that we have been rostering a ton this season, it seems like they have just been underpriced this whole season compared to our expectations for them. This week I would argue that Rickie is finally properly priced, but man this HAS to be the week for Rickie to finally get it done. He is coming in as the TOP play in the NineToFive Model. He has good course history here making the cut 3 out of 4 years. (the missed cut was last year). He is coming in with the best form, and is the 5th best stat fit. Should be and easy safe play.
Hideki has also had some success at this tournament making two out of three cuts going: WD, 21st, and 13th. Really when we look at Hideki there is nothing to worry about. Like with Rickie this sort of feels like the week for HIdeki to finally get his long-overdue win. Both have been playing great consistent golf, just one of them finally needs to convert, if I was only placing two outright bets these would be them. I also like them to both finish top 20. For DFS purposes that would be great as well.
Adam Hadwin has had some good results at this track in the past finishing 37th, MC, and 4th. In an event where we see more variance, it is tough to find a golfer that has elite course history with 0 missed cuts, and more than 2 starts. I like that Hadwin has shown upside here. He is a golfer that we can typically depend on to make the cut. Hadwin is a top 10 specialist, top 20 stat fit, and is in strong recent form compared to the field. In a normal week I would see him as a "shoulder shrug" play but this week with this field I am fine going out of my way to roster him.
Austin Eckroat is a player that has been coming in with some great form making the cut in his last 7 starts with basically of those starts being ideal finishes given this price. He does have course experience here as well, even though it was a missed cut that could end up helping him have a good week this week. It would not be shocking to see Eckroat find himself in contention to win this week.
Aaron Rai is a GPP only play because he has been way too hit or miss, and you simply cannot trust him in cash, but all in all makes for an interesting GPP play, and outright bet.
Kevin Yu I was really struggling with where to roster him this week because he is a such a good play, at such a cheap price. He ranks top 3 or better in the key stats that we are looking at including Ball Striking and Birdie or Better %. This really feels a lot like Nate Lashley as a play 4 years ago when he won. I love the price, and with that the only worry with Kevin Yu is fatigue from his surgery this past February. I believe that is why we saw him fall off over the weekend, but because of that we are still getting a great price on him.
Jaeger, and Suh are very similar plays, and although I agree that Jaeger should be higher priced it is strange that they have a $1,000 price difference when Suh has shown a little bit more upside recently. Both are good plays this week and strongly project to make the cut. My only worry is that I wouldn't be too shocked to see Jaeger finally miss a cut, as he has not been finishing the best lately.
If Mark Hubbard posted a good round last week, he would most likely be priced right where Jaeger is at this week, and because of that missed cut we are getting him at an extreme discount. Hubbard really only has one good start at this tournament finishing 12th 3 years ago. Hubbard is a solid play across the board this week minus the less-than-ideal course history, and the missed cut last week.
Doug Ghim has made 4 straight cuts in a row, and is a top 20 stat fit. That is the appeal to him as a play this week at this price.
Carson young has been playing some good golf for about two month now, and this price as a whole just seems way too cheap for him, I hope this is not a trap because he is looking like a perfect cheap value option for us this week.
Dylan Wu was a let down last week, but still did not play too bad. He still ranks out as the 29th best in recent form. He is also a top 10 stat fit this week. Given the field that we have this week if he does what he did last week he should be able to make the cut.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Ludvig is getting a lot of hype this week, and he is at a terrible price with the amount of hype he has. I could see him end up being to high owned, and I would rather play someone like Hun An who not only is cheaper but ranks out as a better play.
Adam Schenk has played well at this tournament in the past, and that could partially be because of his midwest ties (Indiana). Now he is coming in missing the cut in his past two starts, but this would be an ideal bounce-back spot for a guy that had just finished 7th, and 2nd 3 and 4 events ago.
Nate Lashley is a former winner at this track, and really since that point had not been playing all too well, that has changed this year and he has been playing much better so it is no surpise that he is a top 15 stat fit, and ranks out top 20 in recent form even coming in missing 2 cuts in his past 4 starts. (Tells you the field we have). Lashley is a good GPP play.
Hodges and Baddeley are very solid shoulder-shrug plays this week. If you end up on them I am happy with it.
Chez I like as a play simply due to the strong recent form, whereas Ahskay I like because of the strong stat fit.
The other three golfers just make for solid values given their price.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Rickie, Hideki, Hadwin, Eckroat, Yu, Young, Jaager, Suh, Hubbard, Hun An, Baddeley, Byrd
GPP: Rai, Wu, Ghim, Schenk, Lashley Morikawa, Tom Kim
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
This is a build that I like just I have not decided where I want to make a pivot from.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
It is early but right now it seems like we are getting a lot of strong leverage this week, and if this ends up being the case on Wednesday evening I might find myself attacking this slate a little bit more than I expected because this would lead to some big edges!