Well last week worked out, ended being one of the better weeks of the season actually, kind of sucks that it happened on a low entry week, but sometimes that is the case, can't complain about cashing. Now we have a new season, and in two weeks we have the US Open smacked in the middle we have the Safeway Open this week. Last year Cameron Champ was a play that we were able to predict to win, which simply means the stats we were looking at were the correct stats. This week the field bad, but whats worse is DK's pricing really does not have much logic behind it. Makes this week interesting, one I want to attack in GPP's because it should be a low week of 6/6 lineups which means if we do get 6/6 it is going to be a huge week!
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED/YELLOW
0 Players Checking all the boxes, yet there are some stand out plays. Higher Risk week, that could pan out.
KEY STATS: Bogey Avoidance (BA), Total Driving (TD), Strokes Gained Approach (SG A), Par 5 Scoring (Par 5), Total Putting, (TP), Ball Striking (BS)
BETTING:
WINS:
Varner +3000, Davis +4500, Tringale +6000, Redman +4500, Hadley +7000, Rodgers +9000, Ventura +10000, Schenk +7000, Hubbard +50000
SLATE BREAKDOWN:
This tier is major Yikes!!! Lots of player I do not feel comfortable paying up for including Si Woo, and Phil. Lowry an Steele are fine plays, and I think Spieth grinds out a made cut here once again. Just not much to love. Streelman has made 7 cuts in a row as well, and could top 10 here.
Doc Redman ($9,200) - Redman is going to be a hit or miss play this week, but I am thinking he is going to hit this week. We have seen that when his game is on he can absolutely go off and score. He is a top 5 stat fit as well. His only course experience at this course was last year where he had a missed cut. He still shot under par, but it wasn't enough to make the cut. Hate that he is in my main build but that is the week that we have.
Harold Varner ($9,100) - Varner is a stand out play this week. He missed the cut at the Northern Trust, but still played well there shooting 2 under par. Before that he had a T7, and T29. His last 3 finishes have 17, 59, and 15th at this course which is by far the best in the field! He the second best stat fit in the field. I fully expect him to contend for a victory this week!
Chez Reavie: Reavie seems like a safe play here, which is crazy because he ranks out as a 45th stat fit. It is the course history that stands out three straight top 35 finishes. He has made 8 out of his last 10 cuts with only one of those missed cuts being poor finishes. I feel like Redman has more upside but Chez is safer.
Cameron Davis ($8,900) - One could say Davis should be the highest priced player on the board this week, aka if Si Woo is the highest priced player simply due to his recent form then so should Davis. Davis has an average finish of 22nd in his last 4 events. He made the cut here in 2018, but missed the cut here last shooting a 76, 68. So he can score on this course obviously, he may have just one one bad round last year. Davis is a top 10 stat fit, and I am treating him as such! Still wish he had made the cut here last year to have full confidence in him.
Tyler Duncan ($8,400): Duncan has made 9 out of his last 10 cuts, with the only missed cut coming at the PGA Championship. He has made the cut here in his last two starts with a 56, and 69th finish. Not great, but still made cuts. He also isn't the best stat fit. We are really paying up for a made cut here, and I do not love it. However if he was $1,000 cheaper I'd be all over him.
Will Gordon ($8,200): Gordon is essentially the same play strong off the, great in approach, can score, if he gets hot with his putter he can make the cut and potentially get a top 10. Just not too likely this week.
Mark Hubbard ($8,100): Hubbard is by far the best play this week. Feels a lot like getting Munoz at under 6K last week. Hubbard had a 13th finish here last year and a missed cut 4 years ago. Hubbard had a great year last year, and sort of just kept getting better as the season went on, and hopefully that continues into this season. If it does it would not shock me if he wins this week. He seems due, and this is the exact course that could happen at. He is a top 20 stat fit, and has made 5 straight cuts
Patrick Rodgers ($7,600): Rodgers is technically checking all the boxes this week, 3 straight made cuts at this event, 5 straight made cuts on tour, and he is a top 23 stat fit. He also made 20/27 cuts on the season last year, sort of tells me that he should make the cut. I just worry about his upside this week. But still in a week where we want to get 6/6 across the cut line Rodgers makes a ton of sense!
Cameron Tringale ($7,500): Tringale is basically the same play as Rodgers, except he is a slightly better stat fit, ranking top 10! The only * with Tringale is he techinally missed the cut at the PGA Championship due to signing the wrong score on his card. If he had not he was in position to potentially top 30. Even with that his last 2 finishes have been T29, and T3. He makes for a great play this week. Rodgers, and Tringale make a ton sense this week.
Wesley Bryan ($7,100): Bryan is playing great golf since his return making the cut in his last 4 events, including three straight finishes of T31 or better. He should make the cut again this week. Do not really get his price point this week either.
Chesson Hadley ($7,000): Hadley is one of my favorite plays this week, if he can just cut back on the bogey's (which is a lot to ask) he will have a top 10 finish. He finishes 23rd here last year, and missed the cut the year prior. He has made the cut in his last 2 events, and has not shot over par since the break (on a tournament). Love the price point, and love the upside!
Scott Stallings ($6,900): Stallings had been a go to play for us this break up until the Northern Trust where he missed the cut. Now this week we get him at an event where he has missed the cut two times in a row. I think he will make the cut again this week.
Adam Schenk ($6,900): Schenk is a high variance play this week, if he wins I will not be shocked, if he misses the cut I will not be shocked. He is the 5th best stat fit priced in the value tier, he also has made the cut in his last 6 events. Very risk reward with Schenk this year
Ventura ($7,000): Technically not a value play, but he has finish under par in every tournament since the break. with only one missed cut meaning he has made the cut in 4 out of his last 5 events. He is a top 45 stat fit, and he made the cut here last year. Seems like a sneaky play.
Roger Sloan ($6,700): Low exopsure play this week, but he has been sneaky decent making the cut in 3 out of his last 4 events, and has also shot even or under par in every tournament but the first one back from break. He has made 2 straight cut here too.
Stat Pull:
MODEL RANKING:
Uploading Tuesday - See Stat Sheet*
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
PLAYER POOL: RELEASED ON TUESDAY.
Player Pool Breakdown: XANDER IS A CORE PLAY - RIGHT AFTER BERGER
Player Pool is rank in order
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Chez, Rodgers, Byran, Tringale, Hubbard
GPP: Varner, Redman, Davis, Hadley, Schenk
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
RELEASED ON TUESDAY.
Commentaires