In this write-up I will be covering both tournaments this week, and because of that it will be a little bit less text-based, and more photo-based. I will be touching on picks and plays where the data does not speak for itself. I will start with the Scottish Open at the top, and that will be my primary focus. I will jump into the Barbasol Championship at the bottom of this page. The Barbasol writeup will be out Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.
Also want to point out that this week it does seem like we are getting a lot of discounts on DP Tour-based players for both tournaments. This will make this week a bit risk-reward as that it just the nature of a lot of DP Tour plays.
Lastly some personal news, my wife and I are expecting our first child within the next two weeks, I will send an update out on Discord and maybe on Twitter. When this occurs I ask for your patience with data updates and responses to questions.
This Weeks Video:
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- Total Driving
- Good Drive %
- BOB Ratio
- Good Drive %
This tournament has been unique in the fact that it has been played differently in the past seasons in terms of which key stats led to made cuts and winners/ I think a lot of that is due to the weather. The weather that we are projected to get is about the same as it was last year. As a result, I will be focusing on how the tournament played last year. Last year we saw 200+ scoring, Good Drive %, Total Driving, and BOB ratio were some of the most crucial stats thus those will be the key stats that I am looking at this week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Scottish Open
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
I have found builds to be very difficult to trust this week, and I think that is due to simply ending up on a lot of DP Tour players due to them being too cheap. This does make me feel a little bit uncomfortable.
Weather:
The weather report is very interesting this week. There is a lack of consistency between the PGA Tour weather report and the DP Tour weather report. The takeaway is that it will be windy. I am currently labeling the weather as "Bad" (15-20 mph winds) but might bump it up to "Worst" by Wednesday if the weather gets worse.
Scottish Open Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Outright Bets:
Xander 14/1
Cantlay 12/1
Hatton 20/1
Smalley 60/1
Bjork 110/1
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Scottish Open Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
The Core Plays this week come straight from the data tag Core Plays.
Xander, Cantlay, and Hatton are very straightforward plays on paper, and should in theory be easy sweat free plays. I do find it pretty easy to fit 2 out of the 3 into builds as well.
From there, Alex Smalley, and Alexander Bjork feel like great cheap plays as well. The only pause that I have with Smalley is the fact that he failed to win last week, although given how Straka played in the final round on Sunday finishing runner-up probably doesn't feel like too much of a disappointment.
Bjork has been playing great on the DP Tour finishing top 10 4 straight times, and has great course history. The stats that we have of him are from the DP Tour but given those stats he looks like a great play.
Fitzpatrick has been a little bit hit or miss, but this is a course/tournament that he seems to love. I expect him to make the cut, I just slightly worry about his upside.
The biggest worry with Wyndham Clark this week is that he is not the best in poor weather situations. Although given how well he has been hitting the ball this season maybe the windy contributions will not be as big of an issue this week.
High Exposure
Takeaways:
Once again the plays that I am on here are taken directly from the NineToFive Cheat Sheet and the "High Exposure" data tag plays.
The thing is I agree with these plays. Scottie struggled last year at this tournament and this is the only worry for him as a play.
Rory has been playing some stress-free golf since the PGA/LIV news broke, and his play in terms of consistency has been a lot better. Although he missed the cut in his last try at this course I think he makes for a strong play again this week.
The biggest worry with Rickie is how he will respond after coming off of a winning week. I could see this being a natural letdown spot sandwiched in-between a major doesn't help as well. If he doesn't bring his A-game like he has it would not be shocking.
Tommy Fleetwood is coming in with weird form missing two cuts and finishing top 5 in the other two events. Fleetwood has had tremendous course history here finishing 4th, 26th, and 2nd. I get why the data like shim this week.
Doug Ghim is a play that people might not get excited for but he is a play that does make sense when considering the price. All in all he looks too cheap.
Mid Exposure
Takeaways:
Both Adam Scott and Justin Rose feel a little bit too cheap this week, and they are both plays that should make the cut. They make a lot of sense in fair-and-balanced-based builds.
Aaron Rai won this event 3 years ago, but I think it is worth noting that the field was kind of bad when comparing it against the field we have this week. I also want to call out that this win was when the event took place in October.
Rai still makes for a great GPP play.
The next two golfers are familiar faces to the NineToFive player pool, and I see them giving us a good chance at a made cut.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
I actually really like all 4 DP Tour values this week. I think they all make for great lineup fillers as they have all been playing great golf.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + High Exposure
GPP: All other plays
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
On paper this is a great build.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
I love that JT is coming in over-owned currently and that two of the plays in the sample build above are coming in as great leverage plays. That could be huge.
Barbasol Championship:
As some of you know these secondary events are the events that I love because it seems to be the events in which we gain the biggest edge. This is because people are not paying as much attention and because other databases do not go as deep as my database. Thus we typically see a nice little edge.
That being said this is very much risk/reward I have had several of members win GPPs in these secondary events, and others lose money with the only difference being one player, we know if PGA DFS that can typically be the case, but that seems to be amplified in these secondary events.
I do want to call out the extremely low made-cut probabilities for basically every golfer. We have 0 golfers with over an 80 chance to make the cut. For the Scottish Open there are more than 10 golfers.
I do want to note that because a lot of the stat that are being pulled in are from the DP Tour, or from stats of golfers that were playing in less than stellar fields a lot of the top-priced plays might read out as "bad" stat fits. That is the tough part about this week. Someone like Lucas Glover would not be a good stat fit on paper this week simply because he is playing in better fields thus he would be a worse stat fit in those fields. Golfers playing in worse events would benefit stat-wise. This is why a lot of the DP Tour players are popping stat fit-wise.
A lot of this tournament is targeting golfers that have either been playing extremely well on the DP Tour or targeting golfers that have been playing solid on the PGA Tour. Golfer that have been making cuts or golfers that have been close to making cuts.
Player Pool:
Good luck with newborn sir! Life will never be the same and in a good way.