This tournament is normally a tournament in which we see a lot of high variance, possibly the high variance that we will see all season. This comes down to two main factors: 1) Early in the season, 2) Easy scoring course. Both of these lead to a lot of random results. You can have one a player shoot -3, or -4 and still miss the cut. Meaning you could have a player play well and miss the cut. This is my long way of saying that "Core Play" is a loose term this week.
Strokes Gained Approach
Birdie Or Better %
Par 5 Scoring
Below you will see the top outright bets this week. They will be sorted based on how they are priced in DFS (Draftkings).
Will Zalatoris - 22/1: Willy Z had a top 5 finish at this event last year, which somewhat kick started his great run. One thing I notice last week was that he said he was much more motivated to play well this year because he did not get to play in the playoffs last year. At this point of the season that is something I think is worth paying attention to. On top of that Willy Z is ranking out as a top 5 pick in the 925 model this week sporting some solid starts in his last 4 events. He is a play this week that has a great chance to hit a win this week.
Sungjae Im - $9,200 - Core Play: Now my worry with Sungjae is going to be his lack of SG AP, and his BOB %. But I am not all to worried about that with him as he is sporting some good recent form. If we pull up his player profile (below) we can see that his game really favors this type of course. The only problem with Sungjae is that he has lacked upside lately.
Corey Conners - $8,800 - High Exposure: The fine line this week is that I like Conners this much more than I do Casey, which is just strange but all in all Conners is in better recent form, and we can see that his approach game is always strong. Conners last year had all but 7 of his 26 starts end up as top 25 finishes. I like Conners a to make the cut this week even though in two starts he his best finish was 68th.
Joaquin Niemann - $8,300 - High Exposure Play: I like Niemann a ton this week basically my only worry is his lack of quality finishes down the stretch last year having 0 good starts during the playoffs. Niemann though has finished 13th, MC, and 10th at this tournament which is something that I like to see this week. Overall this just should be an event that Niemann goes out makes the cut and ends up with a top 30 finish. Had he been in even been recent form I would have made him a core play.