The tournament this week is a lot more difficult this week compared to last. The pricing is tighter, and the format of the tournament itself makes it difficult to predict. The tournament is played on 3 different courses for the first three-round, and then there is a cut, followed by the final round. Someone who only plays 3 rounds could outscore someone who plays 4 rounds. Scoring will be a huge factor this week, which will be reflected in our Key Stats this week.
Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better % (B.O.B)
This Week's Strategy: Limit how much you play this week especially in cash. We have 0 plays this week that are checking all the boxes. Last week we had at least 8. There are a few value plays that are fine this week but come with more risk.
*By playing value plays you're typically reducing the % chance to get 6/6 across the cut line.
Slate Confidence: RED - Either we are going to have a great week or a bad week. This is due to the fact that we are trimming down our player pool. I like the plays I am on this week, the only problem is that we have no players checking all the boxes. This means that this should be a rough week for everyone else as well. Which could very well yield some good results for us.
SLATE BREAKDOWN:
TOP PLAYS THIS WEEK
High Tier: I do like Rickie this week, if I have the salary leftover I will pay up for him.
Sungjae Im: Im sort of choked last week down the stretch but he still had a great week leading to his 11th straight cut made. Im is a top 10 stat fit this week as he ranks top 40 in Total Driving, Ball Striking, Strokes Gained, and B.O.B. Im also finished 12th at this event in his first start.
Charles Howell III: Howell has basically made his career via the West Coast Swing. Nothing proves that more than this tournament where his average finish in the last 4 years is 19th. But this isn't the same Howell we have always seen he is somewhat struggling off of the tee, and somewhat struggling to make birdies. Still, he ranks in the top 25 this week, and should be in for another made cut. He has made every cut this year minus the RSM Classic where he shot - 2. So even if he does miss the cut after the 3rd round it shouldn't result in you being dead in the water.
Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler has an average finish of 21st across 7 tournaments this year. This ranks as one of the best this week. Scheffler is also a birdie maker ranking as the best in B.O.B in the tournament. He is also 13th in Total Driving and 10th in Ball Striking. I think that he makes for a great GPP play. He is not a cash play due to his lack of Tournament History.
Mid Tier:
Brian Harman: Harman is starting to round into his old self, after a rough year last season. At this event, he had an MC here last year, but before that, he had a T20, T3, and an 11th finish. Overall he isn't popping that much in the stats, but also it shouldn't be a concern. He has made 3 straight cuts, and 6 out of 7 on the year.
Alex Noren: Noren is going to be one of my highest owned players, which is scary because he does not have any event history here in the last 4 years. (Sums up this week). But Noren has made 6 straight cuts, including the T32 last week. Noren is top 50 in Ball Striking, Total Driving, Strokes Gained, B.O.B, and Par 5 scoring. Noren actually ranks as the second-best Par 5 scorer in the field.
Russell Knox: Knox is the only player this week that is checking all 3 boxes. He is in good current form, has good event history, and is a good stat fit. He will most likely be my most owned player again this week. So far at this event, he has finished T18, and T29. He has made 6 straight cuts, and ranks as a top 20 stat fit this week. His game overall this year has very little weaknesses.
Low Tier:
Harris English: Besides the MC that English had at the RSM Classic (-2) he was on an absolute tear. English has 4, T6 or better finishes on 6 starts this season. He ranks as a top 3 stat fit this week as he is top 15 in Total Driving, Ball Striking, Strokes Gained, GIR, and B.O.B. English has finished T51, and T11 in his last 2 starts here.
Daniel Berger: Berger finished 12th at this event last year, besides that he has not had a start here in the last 4 years. Berger, however, ranks 33rd in B.O.B, and 19th in Par 5 scoring. He should be able to go out and have a good week this week. Other than his horrible start at the Houston Open Berger has two top 20s and 4 T40s. I think in this field Berger will get another T20 or better.
Nick Taylor: Taylor has 3 straight made cuts at this event followed by one missed cut. He is a top 10 stat fit this week, with every stat that we are looking at this week being T62 or better. Factor that in with his strong recent form Taylor makes for a great play this week. (Yes he had a missed cut at the RSM but he shot - 3 that week)
Harold Varner: Varner has grinded out 7 straight cuts in a row, and about half of those events were not events that favored his game. This event is, but his event history does not exactly tell us that. Varner has a T18, and then 3 straight missed cuts. Did he finally figure it out last year? I am betting on that this week. Varner is T41 or better in B.O.B, Par 5 scoring, Strokes Gained, Ball Striking, and Total Driving.
Value Tier:
Mathew NeSmith: Stat wise NeSmith is essentially Russell Knox, where his game does not have a weakness thus far. He has made 3 straight cuts in a row as well. He lacks course history, but I think NeSmith is going to make for a great play this week, and will probably be my highest owned value play this week.
D.J. Trahan: Trahan once again is a top 5 stat fit. Where he gets knocked this week is his horrible course history. He has not made a cut here in his last 3 starts. This is why he is still a value play for us this week. He has made 4 straight cuts, including 3 of those being T30 or better. Trahan makes for a great GPP play this week because if he does make the cut we know he will exceed his price point.
Maverick McNealy: McNealy has played in this event once (last year), and missed the cut. But McNealy is has been playing some great golf have made 6 straight cuts. He ranks as the 2nd best B.O.B player in the field and also ranks 28th on the season in Par 5 scoring. If that continues this week McNealy will vastly outperform his price.
For the rest of the plays in the player pool with exposures scroll down a bit!
Stat Pull
*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course.
MODEL RANKING:
* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.
As you can see we still have players that
do not have enough rounds this year to qualify for the stats. This hurts the stat model somewhat as well. The more numbers we have available the more accurate this will be. Still a good reference tool any week.
PLAYER POOL:
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is a lot weaker than last week. The Core Plays this week essentially grade out as what would have been Mid Exposure Plays last week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Noren, Knox, Taylor, Berger, Tringale, Rickie, Sungjae
GPP: Trahan, English, Harman, Lashley, Varner, Baddeley
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
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