We have an event at the same exact course as last week, which should in theory make things easier. The only worry is that the course will play slighlty harder than what it did last week, still the golfers should be able to adjust accordingly. This week will be a lot easier to make a build to your own desire unlike last week, where it felt like we were forcing players into our build. This week we have a ton of great plays at any given price point.
Last week it was a Red/Yellow week due to how closer the whole 7K range was, and the fact that it was looking like most builds would only lead to 5/6 across the cut. This week it should just be a matter of getting the right combination of plays, and not get unlucky.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Great Price Points, Recent Form, Course History, and enough Data to go off of. Should be a solid week this week.
KEY STATS: Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B), Total Driving (TD), Ball Striking (BS), SGT2G
What we have seen at this course, is that people that play it smart will do well. Plan where you want to hit your shots, and execute that, and you will make the cut.
Cantlay, Xander, and Hovland are all top end players I would bet on that have short odds to win. (Wait thats what I wrote last week, yes they are still solid plays this week).
Winner: Webb + 2200, Rickie +3500, Berger +4000, Woodland +4500, Sergio +8000, Hadwin +9000, Redman +15000, English +17500, N. Taylor +175000
Top 40: Scott Piercy +300, Norland +225, Merritt +225, Stuard +250, N. Taylor + 175, Enlgish +175, Hadwin + 110, Glover +110, Sergio + 100
H2H: Webb over Rahm /// Berger over Reed //// Streelman over Conners /// Hadwin over Kisner /// Redman over Todd ///
Obviously the high tier is loaded, there really isn't a bad play (honestly). I wouldn't stress too much about the top end of this pricing range. I do really like Bryson though (obviously) if you like lower value plays and want to pay up for him go for it. Not sure we need to this week though.
Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay had so many putts/shots that just burned the edge of the cup last week. We shall those putts start to drop on Sunday, and he ended up getting a top 10 finish. Cantlay has had three straigh top 10 finishes at this course, and has had 4 straight T17 or better finishes. He is a top 10 play this week.
Xander: Xander has finished T14 two straight times at this course. His driving accuracy is a little of a worry, but he ranks 9th in Bogey Avoidance, 4th in GIR, and 8th in Ball Striking. He has not missed a cut since the break, and I feel like Xander is due to win an event here shortly.
Viktor Hovland: Hovland has an average finish of 14th since the break, he finished 3rd last week, and is a great stat fit. The only worry with Hovland is that we are paying up for him a little this week, and we worry about "burn out" which I do not think will matter for the young player.
Webb Simpson: Webb at this price will be tough to pass up. He has only played this course once in the last 4 years where he finished just T67. Webb has been elite this season however, 7 of his 9 starts on tour have been top 10 finishes, plus he has already won twice on tour. He had one bad round at the CSC, the first round after break where he was able to bounce back with a 69. He lowest stat that we are looking at is 20th. I fully expect Webb to top 10 again. I would probably bet on that as well.
Tiger: Oh Draftkings ... Pricing Tiger at 9K on DK sucks! He will probably be chalk now, and honestly he probably should. This is a course that he has dominated in the past, and also recently finishing 9th last year, and T23 the year before that. He has looked great in his limited starts this year as well. Up to you what you want to do here. I will play him some!
Gary Woodland: Woodlands stats finally proved true, he like Cantlay saw some shots go right by the edge of the cup. He was playing truly elite, and it was nice to see the results match the stats. His lowest stat this week is 64th in Driving accuracy, the rest of the stats are all 36th or better. He has missed a cut in the last 5 years, and I do not see that happening again this week. He too is a play I would bet on to top 10.
Daniel Berger: Our boy Berger has been a stud this year, and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he too won this event. Now the only worry with him is that he doesn't have course history here in the last 4 years. In Bergers last 4 events his lowest finish is 5th!!! He hasn't shot over par since the Houston Open! He is an elite stat fit in great recent form. Would be a core play with course history. (good course history)
Rickie Fowler: I want Rickie to be a little bit more consistent day to day, but he has made 2 straight cuts not including the 22nd finish last week. The 22nd finish last week was actually his worst finish in the last 4 years here. His stats are trending in the right direction, and he could contend this week.
Abraham Ancer: Ancer is playing the best golf of his young career, especially since the break, making 3 starts with an average finish of 9th! He has only missed two cuts this year, and 0 recently. In two starts at this course he has made the cut, but finished T65, and T57. Not great but they are still made cuts which is all we want. Ancer is a top 16 play this week.
I can't write up everyone, there's a ton of great GPP plays.
Sergio Garcia: I think the last time Sergio was in a write up of mine he finished +15 at the Masters. Still Sergio's game has been trending in the right direction making 10 out of 11 cuts, with his only MC being the first event back from break. He then finished T32 , and T5. Maybe he can drop some putts to ahve another good week. Paul Casey is $100 more and is the exact same play! Also Niemann is $100 more and has a slightly better chance to make the cut, just wory about his upside.
Doc Redman: Redman is a top 15 stat fit this week, and is in great recent form, since the break he has an average finish of 27th. Redman played this course for his first and only start in 2018 shooting an opening round 77, he then came back and shot a 70. Mixed result of rounds there. Not sure I like him in cash, but he makes for a solid GPP play.
Harris English: English is back! English is another one of those guys who struggled in the first round back from the long break which led to him being a chalky missed cut at the CSC. A majority of English's finishes have been top 20 finishes, and he could easily do that again this week. He is a great long shot bet to win as well. His lowest stat fit is DA at 75th, everything else is 18th or better. Enlgish doesn't have course history or else he'd be a core play.
Adam Hadwin: What is with this price??? Almost the opening round leader, finishes T35, and price drops $800 on DK? Weird, but this is price and play that just makes too much sense. He is checking all the boxes. Top 10 stat fit, 3 straight made cuts in a row at this course, and 5 straight made cuts on the season. This is a great price point for a made cut.
Poulter/Glover: Both have been great since break, and both are fine plays at their price points. They have an good chance to top 30 this week.
Nick Taylor: Taylor had one great round, and one horrible round, shooting an opening round 67 followed by a round 3 76. He bounced back on Sunday to shoot 71. It was actually somewhat a disappointing finish. Still Taylor did what you want from a value play which is a made cut. He has now finished T48, and T49 at this course. He has been great this year, and ranks out as a top 20 play. I think he makes the cut again this week thus he is a great play!.
Zach Johnson: 3 straight made cuts at this course, and his game is coming back around. Seems like he should be priced higher for a guy that should make the cut.
Troy Merritt: Merritt has two straight top 22 finishes here, and has been great since the break making all 4 cuts, including a T8 finish two weeks ago. He is a player that when he is on he is very on, but it can be quick to disappear. He makes for a great hit or miss play this week.
Henrik Norlander: Norlander finished T31 last week, making it 3 straight made cuts in a row. He grades out as someone that should make the cut as well. He simply seems too cheap for that.
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Hadwin, Webb, Cantlay, Woodland, Hovland, Berger, English, Woodland, Rickier, Glover, Poulter
GPP: Tiger, Xander, Hovland, Streelman, Merritt, Conners, Doc
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.