The last major of the year is upon us, and that has me very excited to get into this week of fantasy golf. DFS-wise I love how DraftKings is pricing the slate, where they are pricing golfers based on how good they are compared to the field rather than pricing them based off of a pricing structure.
This is very refreshing, and I feel like we are getting less golfer that we are focused on playing, and we are actually playing "the game within the game". I believe that this will help to create a pretty big edge this week in DFS. Simply because this should raise the gap between being lucky and making a good build. Basically, we have less "Shoulder Shrug" plays, and more conviction plays because of the pricing.
Like last week with the Barbasol Championship, I will be covering the Barracuda Championship at the bottom of this writeup, and that will be out later most likely on Wednesday.
Last week I stated on here that my wife and I are expecting our firstborn child soon. We now know that she will be born on Friday or Saturday. With that, if I am unavailable Friday, Saturday, or Sunday this will be the reason as to why. Right now I am planning on having data updated for next week's tournament at its normal time on Monday. If this needs to change I will make you aware on the discord chat.
This Weeks Video:
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- Total Driving
- Good Drive %
- B2B Ratio
- Good Drive %
- Ball Striking
This course is going to feature some tight lines for the golfers, especially the ones that try to hit the ball far as the fairways tend to get tighter the closer a golfer is to the hole. This will be a very fun set-up this week because it will be a week where golfers (probably) will be able to tear up the golf course if they are hitting the ball accurately, but if they are struggling they errors will be compounded. This is due to the lack of rough this week, and the amount of fescue, if golfers are struggling to hit the fairway or the green they will be seeing themselves struggling to make par. That is why I am looking at B2B ratio as well.
Worth calling out that all the data that I am looking at this week will be "+" stats. Which simply means I am including stats from the DP Tour as well.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
H1 - Open Championship 2022
H2 - Open Championship 2021
H3 - Open Championship 2019
H4 - 2023 Majors
I do think that the open results in the past are good signs of which golfers were mentally prepared to play a course with these types of conditions. But I also want to look at how golfers played in the majors thus far this season.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
I do hesitate to go "hammy whammy" this week just due to the change in pricing because as a result, we are naturally making some worse builds than any other major would call for but to me, that is the edge. That is where I get excited about attacking this week.
Weather:
The PGA Tour nor the DP Tour have the Weather Report going on their site so I resort to google. I have seen this change a lot already this week, and I think that should be the expectation is that the weather can change fast and change how the course will play. The biggest defense this course will have is if it gets windy if not it should be easier to score on.
The Open Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Outright Bets:
Hatton
Fleetwood
McCarthy
Xander
Smith
Hovland
Lowry
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
The Open Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Once again this week I am taking the Core Plays from the "Data Tag" "Core Plays". While also adding in Hatton and Fleetwood. I can see why the data was not ranking Hatton and Fleetwood as Core Plays though. Hatton missed the cut at the Open Championship two years ago and that is what is getting him the slight knock. Personally, I do not think we need to worry about that. He should be a great and safe play this week.
Why Fleetwood is getting knocked is because he has two missed cuts recently, which I would say is a valid reason to worry about him as a play, but at the same time he should be a safe play this week as he has proven that with his results at the majors this season and his results at the past 3 open championships. I think these two make for great starting points in a lineup.
No real shock that Scottie is coming in as a Core Play this week, by all means, if we can afford to fit him into our builds we should be trying to do so. Now I wouldn't say force it, but we do have some good values this week that will lead us to be able to fit him into our builds. Simply put he is coming in checking all the boxes.
Cameron Smith is the defending champ, who has played well at the past two majors, and he continued that good play on the LIV tour with a victory in his most result event. Yes that is LIV golf, and I do feel like we are getting a strange price bump with him from that win, but Smith is looking like an ideal play this week based on the data available. It seems like we are catching him while he is peaking, and I think the expectation is that he will be in contention to win this week.
Xander, Hovland, and Rickie are all plays that are easy to love this week as they have all been playing some extremely good and consistent golf this season. All 3 have found themselves in contention to win the Open Championship at some point over the past 3 years which should bring good vibes to them. All in all the biggest potential issue with these golfers is that they have been playing too good of golf and I guess it wouldn't be shocking to see them have a random bad week.
From there Shane Lowry is popping even though I would say he seems overpriced, again that is where I like the pricing this week because in a normal week, It would be strange that he is in the 9Ks this week, even though based on how good of a play it is probably correct. Some might be worried about rostering him this week because of the shocking price tag, but he is someone that has been playing some extremely consistent golf making the cut in his past 6 starts on the PGA Tour, and making the cut at the past 3 Opens. He makes for a strong play in fair and balanced builds.
Denny McCarthy has played well in the Majors thus far this season. Sure he doesn't have any starts at the Open over the past 3 Open Championships but he is one of the best Specialists in the field. In theory, he should be a good fit for this type of course. He has been a little bit hit or miss this season, but when he has hit it has been a top 10 finish. I really do not think that is out of the equation this week, his game fits someone that could finish top 10, at the same time the safety in him is in his price. If he does "miss" and has a missed cut this week it won't hurt too much given the cheap price tag.
High Exposure
Takeaways:
Rory doesn't get too much of a knock as a play he is the second-best golfer in the field, and the only worry I have with him is that he might be putting too much pressure on himself to win especially coming in off of a win. Also, we likely have to choose between either Scottie Scheffler or Rory, and I just feel more comfortable going with Scottie or at the same time I think I'd rather game Smith, Xander, and Hovland at their prices. Personally, I do think that Rory is very "comfortable" right now, and I do think that he will be in contention.
Patrick Cantlay is getting knocked this week because he missed the cut on the number last week. This was due to him having a terrible week putting. He should be able to have a good week though. Although he has been a little hit or miss at the Open finishing 8th, MC, and 41st in his past 3 starts.
Wyndham Clark, is a play that I love for "fair and balanced" builds as we have easily fit him into our builds. He finished 76th at this event last year, and obviously won a major earlier this season. He is having a career year, and seems to be the last of this season "elite" golfers that we can be on. Worth noting that he is the 4th best specialist in the field as well.
From they we getting into the "safe" plays given their prices. Conners is something that should be able to play well this week like he has at the past two Open's finishing 28th, and 15th in those events. Conners is also top 30 or better in all the 4 key metrics. Very good lineup filler if you're in this price range.
Ryan Fox is also one of those golfers that I think will be a solid lineup filler, and probably will be low-owned. He has played well at the majors thus far this season and has made 5 straight cuts. It would not be surprising to see him have another top-40 or so finish this week.
Alexander Bjork and Andrew Putnam are both at strange price tags mostly given their recent form. It is clear that they are better golfer / fits than the golfers are them. The question I have is do we go out of our way to fit them into our builds given their too cheap prices. I think that is an option. Like with McCarthy, if one of them misses the cut it is not that penalizing given their price.
*Adding in Rickie as a High Exposure play. The worry is that Rickie could make some bogey's but he is a golfer that will continually put himself into go spots.
Mid Exposure
Takeaways:
I mentioned how Cam Smith's price was strange earlier, and that is because when comparing him to DJ, and Bryson he should probably be slightly cheaper. DJ is someone that has had great success at the Open Championship finishing 6th and 8th the past two years. He and Bryson are two players that I could see winning this week depending on how they are hitting the ball, equally if they struggle with their accuracy they could easily miss the cut. Given that they have played well on the LIV Tour recently, and given that they have played well in the recent majors I think they make for great GPP plays.
Min Woo Lee has been solid recently, but his price does feel a little bit inflated this week, still, I think that he will make the cut.
Oosty is another one of the LIV golfers who have been playing extremely well. But will that carry over this week is the question. I feel like Oosty should be the same price as a golfer like Conners as I few he as a similar style of golfer. The reason we are getting him at this price is because we have not seen that much of him. I feel like this could be like getting Bryson at a cheap price in the last major, or like getting Brooks at a cheap price tag in the first major.
Langsaque has been playing well on the DP Tour, and given how well he has played there this price seems too cheap
Macintyre is a golfer that has played well at the Open championship finishing 34th, 8th, and 6th. He has finished 2nd, and 4th in his last two starts. Sure it was one really good round last week, and he was kind of playing with house money in the round but I still think we can get a made cut out of him.
Ramsay is another golfer that has been playing way too well on the DP Tour recently to warrant a sub-6K price tag. If you're playing him you're playing him to potentially get the finish he gave us last week which was a 42nd-place finish.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, and Tom Kim are all players that are tough clicks and only golfer that one would get on when entering 20 or more lineups but it would not be shocking to see them in GPP winning lineups. Both Morikawa, and Young played in "get right" events, and it worked out for both of them with Morikawa finishing 2nd, and Young finishing 6th in his. Both have had good results at this tournament and both could have good results again. Tom Kim on the other hand has been hit or miss recently, and he is just tough to trust because of that, but that is also why we are getting a cheap price tag.
Matthew Jordan is a golfer that is a member at this course and has made 6 straights in a row on the DP Tour. He did have a closing round of 80 last week. A lot of golfers who were not in contention struggled. Still, he would be an easier click had he not shot on 80 on Sunday. He still makes for a very interesting click this week, especially given this price.
Daniel Hillier followed up a win with a 54th-place finish last week. He seems to be too cheap for a golfer that has made 3 straight cuts in a row including 2 top 3 finishes.
Richard Bland is an England golfer that has been playing well on the LIV tour, and also has some good form using the recent form that he have for him on the DP Tour, and PGA Tour.
Maciel Siem finished 15th at the Open two years ago, and has made 8 straight cuts on the DP Tour. seems to be another strange price here.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
*Brian Harman added in as a Low Exposure Play*
*Rickie Fowler as a High Exposure Play
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + High Exposure, Oosty, Bland, Macintyre, Siem, Jordan
GPP: DJ, Bryson, Young, Kim, Morikawa
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Really do not know how my lineup will look at the end of the week, but I do think it will hold this construction in some sort of way. Going with 3 "safe" plays and getting in on the discounted plays.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
I think the ownership will change a lot this week from this first look, but as it sits it does seem like we are getting some good plays and some cheap ownerships.
Barracuda Championship:
How do I see your slips