Last week was one of the best weeks in a while! 5 of the top 6 rated players finished T9 or better. With the 2nd overall rated player Tyrrell Hatton winning it all. The best part about last week is that it was rated a Yellow-Green week. Which means that I attacked that slate the most out of all slates so far this year. It seemed like everyone else did as well!
This week we have The Players Championship which typically is an easier week to cash in with all the casuals playing. But with this being basically a major for the golfers we see top names tend to choke more then they should at this event. All in all I am not too worried about the variance that is presented, and I think this will be a slate that we can attack.
Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Total Driving, Bogey Avoidance (BA), GIR, and Long Iron +200.
This Week's Strategy:
Cash: I want to load up on the 9K, and 8K range this week, but Daniel Berger, and Ancer's price might make me adjust that strategy as the week goes on. They are both basically $800 too cheap.
GPP: I will start a lot of my builds out with Bryson, and Webb then branch out from there. I will be stretching my GPP ownership across all price points, and lineup types this week.
Slate Confidence: Yellow/Green - This slate I will be attacking as well. Although I will not be attacking it just as much as last week. Still, with all the casuals that typically play this week, I will be attacking it aggressively both in Cash and in GPP's.
Rory, and Rahm have been in a league of their own basically this whole year. You can and should pay up for them in builds if possible. Rahm is my favorite of the two this week.
Bryson DeChambeau: Bryson is a guy that people tend to like to dog, I get it, but it does not matter at all in PGA DFS. Play the guys that are popping stat-wise. When Bryson has been in play this year for us he has an average finish of 7th. I say that because there were a few events where we were not using him or using him aggressively. This week he is a top 10 Stat fit and ranks top 11 in the model this week. He is in great recent form and has an average finish of 28th here in two starts. I think that will be his floor this week.
Webb Simpson: The very first thing I did when the salaries came out was look where Webb was priced this week, and I could not believe that he was priced this low. Webb has had one bad week. His last event where he has never played well at. He has typically followed that up with great golf here finishing T16, 1st, and T16 in his last three starts. He is in great current form and is BY FAR the best stat fit. His lowest stat this week is putting where he ranks 18th. There are some golfers in the player pool this week whose best stat doesn't even rank at 18. I honestly do not know how or why he got priced down this much, and I worry about how chalky he will be.
Hideki Matsuyama: Hideki I like a lot to make the cut, which at his price point I will take. Hideki has good course history finishing T8, MC, T22, and T7. He is a top 15 stat fit, and ranks out well in my model. Before last week at the API Hideki eight of ten events finish T16 or better. He is a play that I am not going out of my way to grab, but happy to end up on.
Gary Woodland: Woodland is Webb Simpson just slightly worse. He has ok course history-making 3/4 cuts with two top 30 finishes. He is an insanely good stat fit. Ranking Top 10 in BS, TD, Par 5 Scoring, BIR, Long Iron, and Bogey Avoidance. He ranks 59th in Total Putting. 6 of his 9 starts this season have resulted in T12 or better finishes. I think Woodland makes for one of the best plays given his price point.
Collin Morikawa, Matt Kuchar, Ian Poulter, and Ryan Moore are all plays that I will be on this week. It is just a matter have how much. I am struggling to find plays that I can be on with conviction is this price point range.
Billy Horschel: Billy Ho, is just one of those players you could play every tournament without doing any research, and there's a good chance he will make the cut. He is just a cut maker. Billy Ho has been a staple for me this season as a result. (Also he is always underpriced). Billy Ho has finished T25, T37, MC, and T28 here. He is Top 35 in BS, TD, and Total Putting. He has made the last 5 cuts on the season as well. He ranks out very similarly as he did last week. A player that should make the cut.
Harris English: English does not have a great course history. I will not be on him that much as a result. But I do love the stat fit and the recent form. Also, DK priced him down again. Harris is a Top 5 stat fit this week, but only ranks T30 in my model due to his course history. Adam Hadwin is a play right by English that ranks out well as well.
Abraham Ancer: Ancer seems like a very sneaky play this week. He is a solid stat fit ranking top 20. He is 16th in BA, he is striking the ball well, and is good with the long iron. Ancer finished T12 here last year. Ancer has made 10 of 12 cuts on the season. I think he could be a high upside GPP play. Originally I was thinking about being on him in cash, but I have since got off of that idea.
Daniel Berger: Berger is so underpriced this week. I do not get it. Typically when a play like this stands out this much they have either made a Top 10 or choked on the last two holes to miss the cut. (Really hoping that does not happen this week). Berger is a top 7 stat fit, and ranks 18th in the model. The great thing about Berger is the his game currently does not have a weakness for this course. His lowest stat rank that we are looking at this week is GIR where he ranks 75th. Every other stat is T55 or better.
Lanto Griffin: What may get missed is that Lanto Griffin lives in Ponte Vedra Beach. Which is where this event is taking place. Aka he gets to play this course a ton. He does not have any tournament history but obviously has played this course. He ranks as a top 20 stat fit, and ranks out as someone who should make the cut in my model. He has made the cut in his last 4 starts on tour.
Other values that stood out, Scott Piercy - I would be on him but his recent bad press seems to like it could be affecting his game. Tringale / Rodgers are players that I think will make the cut. Joel Dahmen, and Harman are both values that I think hold huge upside but are very risky.
Harold Varner: Varner has fine course history finishing MC, T7, T35, and T57. He is a top 10 stat fit, and a top 20 play in my model this week. Even in his missed cuts he has played well, which is something that I like to see in a value play. He has been in good form recently making 3 straight cuts. If he makes the cut it would not shock me to see him T15 or better.
Nick Taylor: Nick Taylor is once again a great value play with huge upside!. He ranks out as a top 10 stat fit, and top 20 in my model this week. He finished T16 here last year. His recent form has been spotty since he won, but I absolutely love his upside. Heck, it would not surprise me if he goes out and wins this tournament. He is a very similar play to when we were on him when he won at Pebble Beach. Very much like Varner is missed cuts have all been good missed cuts where is barely missed the cut.
Jhonattan Vegas: This price point really stands out to me. This is a player who can't putt, and as a result, he is making bogeys. If he finds his game with his putter this week he could absolutely go off. He is 16th in TD, 28th in BS, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 56 in GIR, and 43rd in that long iron sat this week. Course History: T3, T41, MC, and T57. Vegas has made 5 out of his last 6 cuts. In those made cuts his average finish is 27th.
*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course. Stat Fit is the second column from the end, Model Rank is the last column.
* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.
The more weeks we are into the season the more this will be accurate.
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: WEBB, BERGER, WOODLAND, HIDEKI, BILLY HO, SUNGJAE, KUCHAR
GPP: TAYLOR, VARNER, VEGAS, DAHMEN, SCOTT, XANDER, ANCER
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.