I have always viewed The Players Championship as the BEST week for fantasy golf that we get all season, and I think that will again be the case this week. Given that we see this course every single year we know what to expect in terms of key stats, and what type of golfers tend to do well. The only slight issue with this week, is the course demands a good shot on basically every single hole, golfers that are not on the top of their game this week could end up struggling more than any other week. This week is both easy to predict in terms of golfers that do well, but we can almost guarantee that we will have some shocking missed cuts.
Basically if the golfers we expect to do well are on their game they are more likely to do well compared to golfers that are not projected to do well.
Now the toughest part about this week is that none of the golfers that are pay ups give me any sort of confidence that they will pay off their prices. The biggest problem I have had this week is actually having too much salary left over, which I guess in a loaded field is not the worst thing. That could end up just being the easy way to get unique. You guys will see what I mean as I get deeper into this weeks breakdown.
I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
Ball Striking (BS)
Total Driving (TD)
GIR/SG AP
The unique thing about the Florida swing is that all the events seem to have the same key stats which is probably why we see "Florida Specialist" tend to do well at Florida based events. Again golfers being on top of their game is key this week, and more so golfers that are not going to make mistakes are going to be the ones that do the best. Accuracy is always key at this event but due to the length Total Driving and Ball Striking are slightly better than looking at accuracy only stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2019. Given that we are using the 2019 results which are 5 years ago you can choose to ignore those results. The reason I am including this is because golfers playing this course tend to do better than those golfers that do not. In 2020 the tournament was canceled after round 1 due to covid.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red / Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
So wtf does a Red/Green ranking mean? Well this week I do think that it will be very tough to get 6/6 across the cut, and I expect it to be tough to get 5/6 across the cut. We have some randomness that we just need to prepare for. That is why it is Red. That being said we are getting some really good cheap plays which in theory should make this week easier. This is also a week in which if you do get 6/6 across the cut line in your builds you should have a massive edge over the field.
Betting wise I do think that we are getting a lot of good numbers on golfers to make the cut, top 40 and top 20.
Weather:
In the past few Players Championships we have seen where weather played a major factor into who played well, leading to a big AM/PM advantage. Given the projected weather for this week that will not be something that happens this year.
The tee time advantage thing is something to pay attention to when you are looking at H2 and H3 for course history. Golfers very well could have just ended up on the poor tee time time split.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Last week we saw we had a lot of statical outright bets, the most of the season actually, and we are right back to the norm of the season where we are only getting to statical outright bets. It really wasn't surprising that last week Scottie won, given that this data piece suggested that it would be a more predictable week. This week like the rest of the season this tool suggests that it could be harder to predict. I might find myself chasing more longer odds this week as a result.
My Outright Bets:
Doug Ghim 110/1
EVR 120/1
Tom Hoge 70/1
Keith Mitchell 100/1
Sam Burns 40/1
Tony Finau 60/1
Will Zalatoris 30/1
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
I do want to call out that I do think everyone but Conners I view as good outright bets, I also want to call out that the reason why I am considering these golfers Core Plays is more based on their prices this week as a lot of these plays are too cheap compared to how they are projected to play.
Let's start with the two pay ups. Had I not watched Sam Burns last week I would probably have more confidence in him actually. That is because I saw him put himself in great spots off the tee time in and time again, then just fire off some terrible approach shots right when he got into contention. At the same time he did continue his strong form that he had been in, and ranks as the 3rd best golfer in form. Burns is one of the closest plays to a golfer checking all the boxes this week. He has made 2 out of 3 cuts here, he is a top 10 stat fit, specialist, and top 10 in recent form. Simply put he is just a very logical play at this price.
Tony Finau is looking like one of the best pay ups expect he is priced at $8,500. Finau has went 2 for 4 at this event making the cut but in the two events that he has made the cut over his past 4 starts here he did finish top 25 which at this price is great. He is coming in as the 4th best stat fit in the field, with really no weak points in his game. He has made 10 straight cuts in a row, and besides the missed cuts at this event he really pops as a great play.
Conners is another very cheap play that looks really good minus one missed cut at this event last year. He seems like a very logical play given his price. He also has a great made cut % at this cheap price tag.
Tom Hoge on paper is one of the best values that we have this week. The concern that I have with Hoge is his Total Driving and Ball Striking being below average in the field, but he does rank out top 20 in B2B so that has not exactly led to many mistakes. he is one of the few golfers in the field without a missed cut here in the past 4 starts here. (Harman, Denny, and JT). He is coming in with extremely strong form making the cut in his past 7 starts and showing upside in those finishes. At his price he is simply the correct play this week.
Another correct play at their price is Keith Mitchell who has made 3 out of 4 cuts here. Now he is a little bit more difficult to trust, but at the same time that is why he is cheaper. He is the 7th best stat fit in the field, and we know when he is on his game he can provide top 20 upside. Which he has done at this course in 2022, and he has done that in his past 3 starts on tour.
Lastly EVR is a core play because of his price, but he has been playing well recently making the cut in his past 3 starts, and his missed cuts recently have not been bad missed cuts. EVR finished 13th at this event 2 years ago, and if you look at his stat fit for this week that would suggest that he should be in for another solid week this week.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
I am knocking Scottie slightly this week, he is coming in off of a win, and he is the defending champ at this event, those are two things that we typically do not like to chase, but to me the biggest reason to knock him this week is the price. Last week he was too cheap not to have a ton of him (way more than the field), especially given the size of the field. This week given his price, and given his results at this tournament he could end up not paying off his price tag. He is actually somewhat looking like he could come in over owned this week, and I think that simply comes down to his price being a little bit too high.
JT I was debating making a Core Play, but when we look at JT, and look at Hoge they are basically the same play yet Hoge has been more reliable and is cheaper. I feel like this sums up the tough parts of this week. But really JT is a great play across the board. He is top 30 or better in all the key metrics.
I have been ending up a lot on Viktor Hovland but he has not been hitting the ball as well as I would like especially for a golfer at this price tag. But he does have one of the longest made cut streaks going, he has finished top 10 two straight years at this tournament and he is a top 5 Specialist. He is still a great play, that we need to get to but he could end up disappointing.
Aberg is really popping stat wise, the only big worry that I have with him is that he has not made a start here. Still that has not really mattered with him this year.
Shane Lowry just seems like a good enough play, but he also feels slightly over-priced, Still he makes a lot of sense as a play.
Hun An has been playing great golf and besides a missed cut at this event 3 years ago he really pops based off of all the key metrics we are looking at It is funny when you compare Hun An and Lowry, you can see the issue we have this week, I get why Lowry is higher priced, but at the same time Hun An is the slightly better play on paper.
One of my favorite GPP plays this week is Doug Ghim. He has been a little bit hit or miss, but his missed cuts have not been bad, and he has made 4 straight cuts and they have been top 20 finishes. On top of that he is the BEST stat fit in the field. He has also shown that he can produce at this track when he is on his game with a top 10 finish here just two years ago.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Will Zalatoris I am slightly knocking for no reason other than I still worry about potential fatigue. I have found myself choosing between him and Hovland a lot to close out my builds, and I have choose Hovland a little bit more but at the same time it does feel like a small difference. Zalatoris played in this event last year finishing 71st, and I am pretty sure he was banged up at that time, so we can kind of right that off. He has also finished 26th, and 21st at this event.
He has certainly felt like a golfer that should have already won an event this season, and honestly this feels like a great spot for him. Again there is a little bit of risk.
Talking about risk what were people thinking with Min Woo Lee last week, as he was chalk and they were completely ignoring how risky of a play he was. He is someone that just seems to be a hit or miss option, and this week he is popping up more than he did last week, and I don't mind the idea of getting to him a little bit more as the field will probably hate him.
Si Woo is a former winner here, and has great course history, he is looking like a very solid lineup filler.
Alex Noren is really popping in everything but course history. He is one of my favorite punts this week.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
This range is all just golfers that I am ok to get to if I need to. basically if I like my builds and I am at their prices I will play them. That is the only way I am getting to them this week.
PS S/O to Garnett for the 90/1 win last week!!!
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core+High Exposure + Willy Z
GPP: Everyone else
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
This is an issue that I have been having the whole week (much like last) is closing out the build. I am fine with Clark, and Homa as plays, but the data tells us Aberg and Lowry are some plays that we should be going out of our way to get to. I have had this issue with every build process this week.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
With Scottie soaking up so much ownership it is no surprise that a lot of the top end golfers are coming in undervalued. At the same time I do LOVE the ownerships on Conners, Hun An, and Finau. I personally think Keith Mitchell not being above 10% is laughable.