The last event of the Florida swing is here in the Valspar Championship. This is an event that we have seen played at the course year in an year out, so we will have a good idea of which golfers we should be targeting. On top of that this course tends to play like the courses that we have seen the past few weeks, so golfers that we have been playing and trust this month we should be able to go back to with confidence.
The issue with this week is I think we are getting a ton of similar plays at various price tags, all of which are not all to safe this week. I have found my safe going with more of a studs and duds approach, mostly because when I go fair and balanced I do not like the lineups I have made.
I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
Ball Striking (BS)
Total Driving (TD)
GIR/SG AP
Par 5 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
Another course and tournament where we want to be looking at golfers that are not really going to make mistakes.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2019. Given that we are using the 2019 results which are 5 years ago you can choose to ignore those results.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red / Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Honestly this week feels a lot like last week in the sense that I think the norm this week will be 4 out of 6 across the cut line, but if you do get 6/6 across the cut line you should be in for a big week.
Weather:
The weather is something that we need to pay attention to, more so for showdown purposes. Thursday seems fine, but Friday could really determine edges on the main slate this could be more random. But for Showdown we should know where to attack.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
My Outright Bets:
Doug Ghim 60/1
McNealy 57/1
Burns 11/1
Perez 85/1
Schenk 59/1
JT 14/1
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
I think that it is worth calling out that Xander is the only statistical core play that we are getting this week, and I do think that he should be treated as such. He is the only golfer that is coming in with no data concerns. The one concern we have from him is that he was in contention to win for 4 straight days, and on top of the leaderboard for all those days. That can be mentally taxing. My question with him is will he be sharp this week. I think he will, but even if he is not I still think he will give us a made cut.
Sam Burns really made it hurt last week, after giving a lot of my lineups life with a low one on Saturday he then proceeded to have a terrible back nine in round 4. Granted he did not have his A game last week we can see that, and he didn't have it two weeks ago, and he was still able to make the cut there. Stat wise he is coming in checking all the boxes as well, minus the descending form. I think its pretty easy to fit both Burns and Xander into builds, and I think I will end up doing that.
Finau is basically a good enough play across the board this week. He is the cheapest of the great plays that we are getting. The biggest concern with him is that he has not made a start here in the past 5 years.
Doug Ghim is playing great golf with 5 straight finishes of top 20 or better. He is again the best stat fit in the field this week. He has a top 30 finish here last year, and a missed cut 3 years ago. His missed cut is the biggest data concern but at this price he is too cheap to not play.
McNealy is someone that I did not expect to be a Core Play for me this week, but here we are. This is due a little bit to the week that we have where a lot of plays are too risky, and he could be too, but he is also a stand out play compared to others. He finished top 40 here last year. He has made 6 straight cuts on tour with a couple top 10 finishes mixed in there, and he is top 30 or better in all the key metrics that we look at.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Harman got hot on the weekend, which he has been known to do in some biggest events, but this is not really a big event, and it would not be shocking to him not show up with his A game. He does feel a little bit too risky at this price, but there is no denying the upside he has.
Keith Mitchell was one of the most tilting golf plays last week, late in round 2 he was 1 off the lead, and then from that point on he was trash, finishing as the worst golfer to make the cut. I am hoping that was just a case of letting a tournament get away from him. That is really the biggest concern from him as a play. He is still a great stat fit this week still in very strong form. Still looks like a great play.
Aaron Rai, and Moore feel like the same plays to me, except Moore is in slightly better form. I really like the idea of ending up on these two to close out builds.
Perez is a value play that just seems way too cheap, he made the cut at this tournament last year, and he has made 3 straight cuts in a row on tour. He is a good stat fit, heck looking at all the metrics he pops ranking top 40 in all of them. He in theory is a play that is too cheap, and a play that makes too much sense in lineups with Burns and/or Xander.
Campos is a play that I chasing due to his stat fit, and solid finishes recently. he does rank out as a golfer that won't make the cut, but at his price that is worth the risk I believe. That is what we are hoping for him as a play is a made cut.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
I think JT can bounce back fine this week, heck we saw him do that the last time he struggled. He has elite course history, and I think we are fine to go back to JT this week. Still we do have to knock him slightly.
Sungjae Im is a little bit priced up but he is a good enough play as well. The same could be said for C Bez. Both are good enough plays.
The one golfer I have struggled to rank this week is Lucas Glover, because on paper he looks like a pretty good play, but at the same time it is Lucas Glover and he just feel hard to trust.
Stanger and Springer are golfers that have played well over their past 3 events, and are popping stat fit wise. I do think that they can present some upside in GPPs.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
I feel like these plays all speak for themselves, they are all a little bit too risky given their prices, but they all look like good plays as well, and plays that I want to be on in some capacity.
Adam Schenk is the one play I worry that I should be on more than I am, which is why I am making him and outright bet, because I think there is a path where he puts things together and presents some big upside.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core+High Exposure
GPP: Everyone else
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
I am glad with the way I did last week's lineup process post, because you either ended up on Clark, or Aberg as plays most likely which would have led you to profitable week.
This week it is a little bit more risk/reward, the first lineup you will see that it is very much a studs and duds build. If one of the payups does not give us at least a top 20 or better finish that could mean this lineup sucks.
The second lineup is much more fair and balanced, but I do not think that it is all that much safer.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
The thing will this week is it does seem like a lot of people are going to be on Doug Ghim, he is sort of just the obvious play. I really hope he stays at this ownership and does not get higher, because than we would have to think about fading him. Dahmen is looking like someone that could come in over owned as well.