Last week was a much better week. Hit Webb Simpson at +3000 (Monday's odds), and 10 out of the 11 top plays made the cut. Harris English finished T17, Tyrrell Hatton finished T3, and Webb Simpson won. Matthew NeSmith, and Doc Redman both easily finished Top 40 which were bets I suggested as well. Billy Horschel was lone missed cut on the high end, but he still played well missing the cut on the number. Had a fair amount of people saying they cashed on the showdown slate as well with two members getting a top 10 finish on separate days. We look to continue last week's results into this week!
This week is looking like a true studs and duds week. We have a ton of great plays on the top end, and a few value plays that should not be value plays. The Mid Tier Section is not that strong this week as well. All in all, the difficult part of this week seems that it will be getting the correct combinations of plays on the top end to go off. You will see this approach in my Player Pool this week!
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED/Yellow
I am not ready to get rid of the RED tag just yet. It is still the 3rd week back from a long break, but also it is a week in which the best lineup approach seems to be studs and duds. That is always a little bit riskier. Still, I think we can attack this slate a little more than we did the last two weeks. I still believe we are about 3 or so weeks away from a possible "Green" week.
KEY STATS: Birdie or Better % (BoB), Par 4 Scoring, and 125 - 150 Range, Total Driving (TD), Ball Striking (BS), Total Putting (TP)
BoB is not a stat that I will be looking too deep at this week, but if the last two weeks are any indication the tour wants low scores, and thus I think we will get easy pin placements as well. This course only has two Par 5s so Par 4 scoring will be key. A lot of Approach shots to the green will end players with a 125-150 Range.
BETTING:
Winner: Byson + 1400, Rahm +1800, Woodland +5500, Harman +10000, Cam Champ +17500, NeSmith +20000
H2H: Mark Hubbard over Brice Garnet,
SLATE BREAKDOWN:
Honestly, this Tier is just loaded this week, Rahm, and Bryson Stand out, but the rest of them are all in play! Rory, Webb, JT, Brooks, Cantlay, Xander, and DJ are all great plays.
Bryson DeChambeau: This is a course that Bryson should absolutely be able to dominate this week! He has an average finish of 22nd at this course in 4 starts. He is the 5th best stat fit in the field this week. He is a great Par 4 scorer ranking top 10 in that. He ranks top 20 in Total Driving, and Ball Striking. His two starts since the break have both been top 10 finishes. Bryson stands out as someone who should win this week.
Jon Rahm: Rahm had a respectable T33 finish on a course that did not really suit him. Now he is back at a course where he had a T25 finish in 2016. He is top 20 in all the stats we are looking at this week besides the GIR % from 125 - 150 where he ranks 73rd. Rahm should make a push at a top 10 this week.
Patrick Cantlay + Xander Schaufelle: These two are grouped together 1 because their price point is very close, but 2 because they are basically the exact same play. Cantlay has two Top 15 finishes, where Xander has a MC, and T14. But Xander has at least played, and Cantlay will have his first start. They are both top 6 stat fits. There's no huge difference here, and I would be happy landing on either one of them as plays.
Paul Casey: Casey has an insane average finish of 7th at this course in his last 4 starts. His game had started off somewhat slow this season but picked up towards the end. He ranks top 10 in Total Driving, and Ball Striking. The annoying part and my worry with Casey is he makes a lot of bogeys because of his poor putting skills. This could hinder him this week because this is his first start back since the break.
Gary Woodland: Woodland is once again a great pick this week. He has made the cut in the last 2 events, all without really playing too well. Woodland once again should be a safe option to make the cut. He is still a top 10 stat fit. He did play this course in 2016 where he finished T38.
Bubba Watson: Watson had found a way to make the cut at two courses that did not suit his game, now he gets a course that obviously fits him. He is a 3-time winner at this event and will be looking to get another victory. Bubba is priced $500 more than Woodland, so I do not think we have to go out of our way to get him, but he should make for a great play. Do not be if surprised Bubba finishes top 10 this week!
Tony Finau: Finau has two top 35 finishes in the first two events since the break. Finau has a MC, T17, and T25 finish for his course history. He is a top 20 par 4 scorer, and should make the cut. If he does I see a top 25 finish for Finau.
Joel Dahmen: Dahmen has made 13 out of 15 cuts this year, and has been playing great golf recently. He finished Top 20 at the CHC, and T48 last week at the RBC Heritage. (shot +4 on Sunday). Dahmen choked on Sunday last week, but maybe the nerves of being in a position to win got to him. Dahmen has a T43, MC, and T62 finish here which also isn't great. But he is a great par 4 scorer. I think he is a fine low exposure play this week.
Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler is a great GPP play this week. He can't putt, but every other stat is T28 or better this week. If he gets hot with the putter he could push for a top 10 finish. Scheffler hasn't played here before, and WD last week. He did finish T55 at the CHC two weeks ago.
Brian Harman: Harman was the only eye-popping play for me this week that was not a value play. Harman has great course history with a T8, T6, T35, and a MC. His stats keep improving on the year, and he has made 12/14 cuts on the season. He played the last two weeks and finish T28, and T23. He is a great play at this price point!
Matthew NeSmith: NeSmith once again is a great stat fit, once again is a great play. His price has some how went down again this week. His game does not have a weakness, thus given the price point I think we will have to try to fit him and/or some of the other value plays into our builds this week.
Cameron Champ: Champ played here last year, and missed the cut. But at least he has some course knowledge. Given Champ's stat fit, and his ability to go low his price of 6.8K on DK seems way too low. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Champ won this week. Champ is a top 10 stat fit, and he played well at the CHC finishing T14. (Which is a course that he shouldn't have played that well at).
DJ TRAHAN: Trahan is priced at 6.1K on Draftkings. He will be a low exposure Value play, this is a course that sets up really well for Trahan. He ranks Top 26 in Ball Striking, and Total Driving. He is also top 50 in Par 4 Scoring, and GIR from 125 - 150 range. He is a deep flyer that I could see my self putting some bets on to Top 40 as well. He ranks as a top 15 stat fit this week.
Doc Redman: Redman is a top 25 stat fit this week, he made the cut last week finishing T21, and at the CHC finishing T58. Given his stat fit, and his current form I think he will make the cut again this week.
Harry Higgs: Higgs has made the cut in 9 out of his last 10 events. He is a top 20 stat fit, and ranks out as a value play that should make the cut.
Mark Hubbard: Hubbard has quietly been playing some great golf this season making 12 out of 16 cuts. Including both at the RBC Heritage, and the CHC. He typically will have one poor round during a tournament, but if he cleans that up he could finish Top 20. Hubbard has only played here once where he finished T43.
Stat Pull:
MODEL RANKING:
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
PLAYER POOL:
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Harman, Woodland, NeSmtih, Bryson, Finau, Fitzpatrick
GPP: Rahm, Scheffler, Champ, Dahmen
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Round 2 - Showdown Picks:
It was pretty obvious that there was an Early Tee Time advantage on Thursday. I fully expect the players that struggled on Thursday who had a late tee time to go out and play a lot better Friday Morning. Those will be the players I target on the Showdown slate. (All Picks are in order)
Justin Thomas - Struggled in Round 1, should regress back to the mean round 2. Top 20 in Early Round 2 Scoring
Gary Woodland - Good value at his price point, should be a lock to go under par.
Tim Wilkinson - Top 20 in Early Tee Time scoring in Round 2. He is a good stat fit, and is…