This is going to be a very interesting week, as DK, FD, and Yahoo have all done a really good job with their pricing. Now we still get some great value, but there are many "alike" plays priced the same. I think that as a result ownership will be more spread out this week than most. (Minus one play that Draftkings is forcing us to play this week.)
Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Total Driving, Par 4 Scoring, and Bogey Avoidance
This Week's Strategy: (Staying the same as last week)
- Cash: We can build a really safe build by building out of the 9.5K to 7.5K range. The likelihood of getting 6/6 across the cut line is the highest it has been all year. But if you believe 5/6 will be the norm and you want to get more upside in your build you can play one value play, and hope they make the cut.
- GPP: Play the core plays / high exposure plays - mix and matching them with the High Tier, and Value Tier.
*By playing value plays you're typically reducing the % chance to get 6/6 across the cut line.
Slate Confidence: Yellow - I really like this slate, and hopefully the chalk/easy plays do not fail us like they did last week.
TOP PLAYS THIS WEEK
High Tier: Jon Rahm, and Rickie are both fine pay up for plays if you want to go that route. I see both of them getting around a T10.
Webb Simpson: Simpson has finished T20, MC, 2nd and T14, which is relatively good course history. But what I really like about Webb is his recent form, and his stat fit. His last 4 starts have all been top 10 finishes. He is top 5 in Strokes Gained total, Total Putting, GIR, Bogey Avoidance, and Par 4 scoring. He has also made 16 straight cuts in a row. I really like the upside for Webb this week.
Hideki Matsuyama: Hideki had an off week last week, finishing T45 but that was his 6th straight made cut in a row. Hideki has great course history finishing T15, W/D, 1st, and 1st. He obviously really likes this course and should be locked into excel again this week. If he gets hot with the putter he could win this event again.
Bubba Watson: The more I look at Bubba this week the more I like him as a play. He has finished T4, T40, MC, and T14 at this event in the last 4 years. He is coming off of a top 10 finish last week. Bubba is actually playing some great golf this year ranking top 35 in both Total Driving and Ball Striking. He has also been putting great this year ranking 6th in total putting. Bubba makes for a high upside GPP play.
Sungjae Im: Im's price point is shocking to me this week. This is the play that I fear will be chalky, but it is too easy of a play not to play. Sungjae ranks T50 or better in Total Driving, Ball Striking, Strokes Gained Total, Total Putting, Bogey Avoidance, and Par 4 Scoring. He finished T7 here in his first start last year. Im is also in great form making his last 13 cuts. 6 of his 9 starts this PGA season have been T21 or better. At his price point across the industry that is (T21) all we need from Im.
Brandt Snedeker: Sneds is going to be a fine play this week. He has made 10 straight cuts in a row and has made 3 straight cuts at this event. He is never going to overwhelm you with his stats but he is ranking 17th in Bogey Avoidance, and 7th in Par 4 scoring. He has one of the highest likelihoods to make the cut this week.
Ryan Moore: Moore is an elite stat fit this week, and typically when he is an elite stat fit in a week he goes out and gets a top 10 or misses the cut. Moore has missed the last 2 cuts here but made the two cuts prior to finishing T61 and T11. He is a big boom or best play.
Brian Harman: Harman has made the cut here 3 out of his last 4 starts. The lowest stat that we have for Harman this week is 111 in GIR, other than that his lowest stat is 73rd in ball striking. But he also ranks top 25 in Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Scoring. The greens here are easy to hit, so GIR should not bee a huge factor. Should note too that Harman is 11th in Proximity. So when he does hit the Green he is dialed in. The point of Harman's stats is that he really does not have a weakness. Harman has also made his last 4 cuts with his last 3 being T32 or better.
Daniel Berger: Berger missed the cut at this event last year but before that had made 3 straight cuts finishing T11, T7, and T58. He is T26 in Total Driving and 44th in Ball Striking. Berger has 6 starts on the year only missing one cut. 4 of his starts have resulted in T25 or better. I think that is what we will get out of Berger this week.
Russell Knox: Knox (as we know) has made the cut in his last 8 starts. Most of these have resulted in around a T30 finish which is all we will as for a play at his price range. Knox is a top 20 stat fit this week. He finished T10 here last year, and missed he cut the year before that.
Denny McCarthy: McCarthy I like a lot as a play this week. I wish he had a little more course history. He has only had 1 start at this event in the last 4 years finishing T33. He has made 9 straight cuts with 3 of those finishes being top 10 finishes. He is a great stat fit this week.
Harry Higgs: Harry Higgs in terms of stats is an elite stat fit he is ranking T50 in every key stat that we are looking at this week. He is a player who has been trending upwards seemingly the whole year, and we saw that come to fruition last week with a top 10 finishes. With how well his stat match up this week it would not shock me if he did that again this week.
Brian Stuard: Stuard has nothing elite about him this week minus his pricepoint. He has made 9 straight cuts in a row, he has made 3 straight cuts at this event. He is also T70 or better in every stat that I am looking at this week. Stuard is price $700 too cheap.
Doc Redman: Redman is a great stat fit again this week. Still love his upside.
For the rest of the plays in the player pool with exposures scroll down a bit!
*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course.
* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.
The more weeks we are into the season the more this will be accurate.
Player Pool Breakdown: The plays this week are properly presented where they should be unlike last week when I stated the "Core Plays" were grading out as Mid Exposure plays. This week is the exact opposite.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Webb, Im, Hideki, Knox, Snedeker, Harman, Berger, McCarthy, Bubba, and, Na
GPP: Ryan Moore, Hadwin, Higgs, Lanto, Palmer, Hoge, and Redman
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.