The Wells Fargo Championship will be an elevated field event this week which means that it will be a 70 man field event. It will also be a no-cut event. Both things as golf betting fans we hate to see, but it is what it is. For DFS purposes this has actually created a decent edge. We know that we should be doing studs/duds builds for no-cut events, and people just continue to choose not to do that.
The only issue this week with the Studs and Duds approach is that we do not have Scottie, or Aberg, that does make it a much tighter week in terms of who we will be on, and we are basically being forced into playing 2 of Rory, Xander or Clark.
The values that we are getting this week are pretty easy to get onto, and I will touch on those plays in this writeup.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Bogey Avoidance (BA)
Greens Gained (GG)
Ball Striking (BS)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
The issue this week is that this is a no-cut event, in no-cut events we tend to just need to look at scoring based stats, which is different how this course typically plays. We know the key stats above are the correct key stats to be looking at based off of past years here, but the issue is that this year could end up playing different.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Years: 2023, 2021, 2019 (Tournament did not take place here in 2022, and in 2020 the event did not take place due to covid.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Personally I am putting a bigger emphasis on attacking the Myrtle Beach Classic as I see bigger edges there as it is a bigger field event. The Wells Fargo Championship just isn't doing it for me this week, I like the lineups I have made, I just do not love them.
Weather:
The weather looks like it will not be an issue.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
My Outright Bets:
Si Woo Kim
Xander
Clark
Matt Fitzpatrick
English
Top 20 Bets:
English, Eckroat, Taylor Moore
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Xander, and Rory are the two clear cut pay up plays for us this week. The one worry that I have with Rory is that if he gets off to a slow start I could see him start to look forward to next week. Still I think the fact that he is coming in off of a win is huge for him mentally. That will be a feeling that he wants to keep rolling. My bet is on him to show up mentally this week.
Xander at this point is just a simple plug and play until he lets us down. Rather, Rinse, Repeat for about the 45th straight event.
What to do with Wyndham Clark, he is the 2nd best stat fit in the field, and is the defending champ. He has shown upside at events like these recently. He is the 3rd best option on paper, and I do think we should treat him as such but I do think that there is a big gap between him on Rory/Xander.
Now if we are going to fit two studs into our builds we need to find at least 2 values that will outproduce their price tag, and I view those two golfers as Taylor Moore and Austin Eckroat
Taylor Moore is technically coming in off of a missed cut on the number from the Zurich Classic, but that is a team event, and we don't care too much for that missed especially since Moore still played well. Moore is a solid stat fit across the board, and he has course history finishing 27th at this event last year. He is a very strong value play on paper.
Eckroat also has course history finishing 64th at this event last year. He is actually in better form, and is a better stat fit than Moore, I just like Moore better as a play but they are basically the same play, and both make a ton of sense in studs and duds builds.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
The big reason as to why I like Andrew Putnam is A) he has barely let us down when we have been on him, and B) because he should be able to finish better than his price tag. He is a golfer that would probably rank out better had it not been for his recent missed cut a team event. He is too cheap, and I will be rolling with him a lot.
From there Si Woo Kim, Adam, Scott, and Matt Fitzpatrick are all golfers that I could see winning this week, and all look like great plays on paper, I just do not want to load up on too many golfers at their prices. Still I have had to use all of them in builds thus far this week and have felt pretty good about those builds.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Conners has just been extremely solid for over a year now, basically at this point if Xander, and Conners are playing they will be golfers I am on that week. The big worry with Conners typically is that he doesn't hold upside but he is coming in off of a an 11th place finish, and he also finished top 10 here last year. He makes a lot of sense, and he is very cheap.
English is a golfer that has been somewhat hit or miss, and I do see a path where things come together for him to win again, which if why I am on him this week. He is a solid enough play across the board.
Schenk and Kirk are getting knocked for their slightly bad course history but I still view them as good plays.
Hadwin is more a play that I like to try and capture some upside as he has two top 10 finishes over his past 4 starts. His game however doesn't fit this course.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Taylor is another play that I am making like Hadwin just in hopes of getting lucky with some random upside. In a small field event it wouldn't be shocking to see one of those two pop.
Glover has struggled at this event, and that is why he is only more of a shoulder shrug play for me this week.
Young and Fleetwood are both a little to priced up for me, but they could return top 10 upside and it would not be shocking at all.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Putnam
GPP: na
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
So you see the appeal of going with a lineup like this. We get to me what are the 3 best values, and then Conners who should be safe, paired with Clark and Xander who are two of the 3 best plays this week.
I wanted to get to Rory instead of Clark, but the last player in the build would be Jake Knapp who I don't mind, or Nick Taylor who I also don't mind but Taylor would be leaving a lot of $ left over.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
With it being a smaller field event the ownership tends to not get too crazy, and that is what we have this week. Really how the data sees things this week is how I also see things.
