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PGA DFS: WM Open 2024 - Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive

We have the Waste Management Phoenix Open this week which should be a pretty straight forward week for fantasy golf. This is an event, and course that we have seen a lot over the years and we know what type of golfers tend to do well here.


Overall I think this week is somewhat like last week where the golfers we want to be on are pretty clear, the elite plays that we have are pretty clear. The difference this week is that I feel like we have a ton of "shoulder shrug" golfers, which will make this week extremely interesting in DFS.


 

First I do want to call out that I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.




Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.


 

Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.


  • Total Driving

  • Ball Striking

  • Good Drive %

  • B2B Ratio

Pretty simple for the key stats this week, golfers that are hitting it long, but more accurate are going to not make many mistakes and are going to make birdies when they need to.


Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)


Last 4 years. (event history)


SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow The only issue that I have had this week is closing out my builds. I keep ending up on a player that I feel like is a shoulder shrug play.


Weather:

Pretty ideal weather week. Wednesday rain could lead to Thursday being easy to score on.


Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)


3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.



Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

My outright bets will be:

Like last week we have only one golfer that meets the data threshold for a typical winner on the PGA Tour. (Scottie missed cut four years ago is costing him). I do agree that JT should be an outright bet this week.


I'll add in Wyndham Clark to get an actual win this week. Byeong Hun An has been playing extremely well and this should be a good track for him.


Others: Conners, Poston, Noren



Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most

Takeaways:

I agree with all the Core Plays that we are getting expect for Adam Scott simply because we have not seen much of him thus far this season. To me he is a little bit too risky.


I will also be considering Scottie the best play this week after Justin Thomas who I would also consider a Core Play. Not exactly sure why the Data Tag doesn't have those two as Core Plays, but I will be treating them as asuch.


I think what the data is telling us to do this week though is go fair and balanced. We can get golfers that have done well at this track, that are in good form and are elite stat fits into our builds. Starting Poston, Hun An, Conners, and Noren seems like a very logical start.


High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Takeaways:

I really view these three golfers as my three favorite plays on paper, and I think they should be treated as such. That is what I will be doing.


Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Takeaways:

Sam Burns is a little bit to hit or miss two trust more than this so I do agree with the data that he is a little bit unsafe.


Eric Cole has not made a start at this tournament yet in his career thus far. But he is a top 10 stat fit he should be a good play. Same can be said for Bhatia who has basically been the same thing as Cole lately. So I'd just rather play Bhatia at a cheaper price.


Hadwin, Moore, and EVR are all solid options at their price tags. All plays that I am more than happy to end up on. But that's the key I am ending up on them.


Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

Takeaways:

The plays that I want to target the most out of these golfers is Si Woo Kim, Beau HOssler, Kevin Yu, Hadley, and then a little bit of Ryder and Hardy.


Si Woo Kim feels and looks like on paper like a pay that is safe. He has made 5 straight cuts in a row on tour, and 3 straight at this track, each time improving.


Beau Hossler had struggled at this track prior to last year, but with his top 20 finish last year, attached to his great form I think he is a great play this week.


Kevin Yu is a Scottsdale resident, and on top of that he is a great stat fit, and he has shown massive upside.


The other plays are plays I will use if I need to.

 

Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week


CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.


Cash: Core + High Exposure + SI Woo

GPP: Kevin Yu, Bhatia, Burns, Beau


SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup


The lineup below is a great example of the issue I am having with this week, 5 really good plays on paper, and then one iffy play to close out the build.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

(Currently going through updates this fall)


Another week where I do not really think any golfer is a clear fade, rather we are getting some good leverage spots to be higher on than the field, and for the second straight week Wyndham Clark is the top ownership leverage play.


If Cantlay and Hovland indeed come in that low owned as does Clark this could end up being a huge week given the projected leverage that we are getting this week.



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