This season is off to a great start, and last tournament continued that streak with Core Play Collin Morikawa getting the WIN! We hope to continue that this week with the World Wide Technology Championship which will be being played at a new course this year. The course is a Tiger Woods course designed that has wide fairways, a little bit longer in length, and has unique paspalum greens and fairways. I expect that this will be a scoring fest as there are not too many hazards and the course seems to set up more like a "resort" style course.
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
- BOB
- SGAP
- BS
- SGT2G
- SG OT
I think will how wide the fairways are and the length of the course we are going to see golfers that gain strokes off the tee will be the ones that are successful. These golfers will need to be making birdies though.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Although this tournament will take place at a new course I still feel like looking at tournament history will be the most accurate this week. This is due to tournament dynamics, players will be traveling to Mexico, and the process of doing that will stay the same, and looking at the course it still will seemingly play like a resort-style course.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
I actually like this week due to some solid discount plays that we are getting, so for DFS purposes I think I will be attacking this week more than I normally do. For betting purposes, I won't be going too crazy simply because it is a no-cut event.
Weather:
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
I completely agree with the data about Jaeger, and Glover being great outright bets, but I am having a hard time getting to Kirk.
I would rather bet on Aberg, Spaun, Hossler, and Champ to win this week. I also don't mind the idea of chasing Davis Thompson as an outright bet.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
This is the first time all fall season that I have felt very good about all of the Core Plays, and maybe that will mean that they struggle this week, but I don't think so.
Aberg has just been playing so well since he has joined the PGA Tour, and also in the fall.
Theegala has finished top 20 or better in his last 4 starts, and has a victory mixed in there. You look at his stats and there are no weaknesses.
Stephan Jaeger is the second-best stat fit in the first, and because of that I do think we could see him have an upside week. The issue with Jaeger has been his lack of top 10, top 5 finishes, that could be the worry at this price but at the same time he is a golfer that we fully expect to make the cut.
I do feel weird trusting Lucas Glover this much, but he has been vocal about being mad about not making the Ryder Cup, so he will seemingly be motived to play well. He is in the best form in the field, has played well in Mexico in the past, and is top 12 or better in all the key metrics this week.
Spaun feels like an elite starting point this week. He ranks out top 3 in recent form rank, and he is coming in off of a top 10 finish. He ranks out top 25 in Strokes Gained OT, and T2G, and he has also played well in the past.
The biggest issue with this range is that it seems like we will only be able to fit one of them into our builds.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
This is another range where I am feeling better than I have all of the fall, as these plays all feel great.
Beau HOssler is a top 6 stat fit, and has been playing well this fall, the issue with him is that we are better and safe plays priced around him, this is what makes him harder to get to thus that is why he is a high-exposure play.
Akshay Bhatia ranks out top 12 or better in 3 of the key stats this week, ranking out as a top 10 stat fit, on top of that he ranks out as a top 10 player in recent form rank. He makes a lot of since in a fair and balanced build.
Matt Kuchar might not have the best upside but I believe the reason why the data loves him in 2 fold, his consistency as a golfer, and how well he has played in Mexico. Kuchar is not someone I expect to be in contention but should be a safe play.
Davis Thompson is one of my favorite plays for GPPs, simply because he is great off the tee, and is the best ball striker in the field. I think he has some of the best upside compared to his price.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Bombers that are not safe compared to their pricing is the theme in this range, I feel like I do not have to say more.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Picture one is players I still feel we should be going out of our way to target this week, whereas the second picture are golfers that I am fine ending up on as I think they have a good chance to make the cut.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + High Exposure
GPP: Young, Champ, Gotterup, Duncan, Merritt, Montgomery, Blair
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
I do see this more as an upside GPP build but it is a build that I like.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)
