Hard to believe but the last week of the regular season is here with the Wyndham Championship. The nice part about the Wyndham Championship is that it has a "type" in terms of which golfers it likes to favor, the issue is that the field is pretty bad.
It will be an interesting week given that we virtually have 0 safe plays this week. To me this is where the edge will be, if you get the correct lineup combo or a good lineup combo it will have a greater chance of taking down a GPP.
This Weeks Video:
- Effective Scoring
- Strokes Gained - Putting, and Approach
- Good Drive %
One of the rare things about this tournament is that good putters tend to play really well here. We never see SG Putting pop up as a huge predictor like it is this week. That is partially due to most of those good putter being good at being accurate both off the tee and hitting greens. In simple that is what it takes to play well. It is more import to hit the fairway then to bomb it at this track.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
The tough part about this week is having too much money left over with builds. We get so many similar plays to golfers that are priced up, this is what makes the build process difficult this week.
The weather makes it look like we are going to have some easy scoring.
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
The Open Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Stephan Jaeger is a player that I really like this week, and the data does too. He is in the best recent form in the field making 11 straight cuts, and more recently has been showing upside. Jaeger has went 1 for 2 making the cut at the Wyndham Championship but the missed cut with 4 years ago, and the made cut was a top 15th place finish last year. The worry with Jaeger is his SG Putting, he will need to be better there if we are going to get a top 10 finish out of him. He should however be a safe play.
Justin Suh is basically a cheaper and slightly worse version of Jaeger as a play. Suh has made 8 straight cuts in a row. The difference is that Suh is a much better putter. I am pretty shocked that we are getting Suh at this price.
Andrew Putnam is a play that fits the mold of golfers that typically play well on this track. He is a great putter, and is not terrible in SG AP, or BOB. Putnam has went 1 for 2 at this track over the past two years with the most recent being a top 30 finish last year. He has made 6 straight cuts in a row.
To me Russell Henley, and Denny McCarthy are very similar plays yet we get Denny at an extreme discount in comparison. They both have had 3 straight great finishes at this tournament over the past 3 years, and have had the same for their recent form. Henley has been someone that has dominated this course though making 4 straight cuts in a row and that is why we are getting him at a higher price. Both make for high upside plays.
J.T. Poston has made 4 straight cuts in a row including 3 top 10 finishes mixed in there. He has also won at this tournament 4 years ago so he has shown that he can play well. I think that he makes sense to pay up for.
Eric Cole ranks top 10 in BOB % and top 20 in SG Putting, it would not be shocking to see him extend his made cut streak to 8 this week, more so it would not be shocking to see him have a really good finish as well. He will need to hit some fairways and greens though.
Ben Griffin is a NC guy so his top 10 finish last year at this tournament does make some sense. If we look at his game log we will see that he really has not had that many terrible starts. Sure he has missed some cuts but they were not extremely bad missed cuts. He is also a golfer that is a good scorer ranking out 11th in BOB%. I do expect Griffin to put together a good week again this week.
Chesson Hadley has made 4 straight cuts at this tournament, and has made 3 out of his last 4 cuts on the PGA Tour. Both include a top 10 finish. He also is an NC guy as well. I feel like this should both be a safe play, and a play that holds some upside.
Aaron Rai is a top 10 stat fit in the field, ranking out 36th in BOB, 4th in GD%, and top 20 in SG AP. He will need to make some putts if he is going to have a big week, which is not impossible as he has shown recent upside finishing top 10 just 3 events ago.
Norrman is a golfer that has made 4 straight cuts in a row. He ranks 3rd in BOB% so another strong week could easily occur this week, but I see him more as a shoulder shrug play.
Brendon Todd has made 2 straight cuts at this tournament, and 3 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. Todd ranks top 40 or better in 4 of the key stats that I am looking out, in terms of players in the field this week that is extremely rare. He is a play that could hold some strong upside this week.
If Kevin Yu can just not be terrible at putting he could win this week as he has been strong in BOB, GD%, and SG AP. We have seen the upside from him, heck we saw it last week for most of Saturday until he then started missing a bunch off putts.
I don't get the price of Knox this week, 6 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour, and 4 straight at this track. Now sure he is not an elite play by any means but this could very well be a cheap made cut.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Hun An has made 3 straight cuts on the PGA Tour include a top 5 finish two starts ago. Hun An has good course history as well finishing 35th, and 3rd. Like many golfers mentioned that aren't Core, or High Exposure plays Hun An's worry this week is putting.
Hadwin is a worse version of Todd on paper this week (strange price difference), he is a play that we could easily see have a strong week.
Ramey, and Daffue were both golfers that we were on last week, and they both delivered results that were expected. They have both made 6 straight cuts in a row, and they have a good chance to do that again this week.
Players that are lineup fillers, but not players that I want to go out of my way to play.
Glover and Hubbard were extreme disappointments last week, but I do not think they were the wrong plays considering the field last week, however we should adjust and drop them slightly which is why they are coming in as lower exposure plays. Both are at good enough prices.
Noren and Lashley are just shoulder shrug plays that are good enough to end up on. I did not want to leave them off this week.
Ryan Gerard could pop this week if he can make some putts.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this wee
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Jaeger, Suh, Putnam, Hadley, Todd, Henley
GPP: Poston, McCarthy, Cole, Rai, Yu
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Right now this is a build that I like but do not love, granted it will be difficult to love a build this week.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned: