Rocket Classic 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

This week we have the Rocket Classic (formerly known as the Rocket Mortgage Classic). For PGA DFS purposes, it will be a little bit more difficult to build lineups that have a good 6/6 %, but we are also getting a lot of soft pricing. The soft pricing will allow us to make seemingly good GPP lineups. For betting purposes, we have several clear good bets, but after that, one could make a case for plenty of good long-shot bets.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

Again I like this week for GPPs, but not so much for cash, I do think that is a week where we will know which players are going to do well, but we will also get enough random missed cuts from golfers.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

• Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5

  
  

This course is all about creating scoring opportunities. We have seen this course enough now, and we know which key stats to look at. We just need the golfers to be hitting the ball well this week, and it will be a good week.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Another week where we have the potential to have some early rain in the forecast which could end up making the course play a little easier than it normally does, that is if we get the rain. If not the course could end up playing firm and faster than it typically does. On Sunday there could be potential for a weather delay, and that would be something we need to pay attention to for showdown purposes.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Patrick Cantlay 35/1

• Collin Morikawa 35/1

• Keegan Bradley 40/1

• Wyndham Clark 60/1

• Alex Smalley 75/1

• Rickie Fowler 65/1

All bets are the best bets on FanDuel

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

TBD

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• TBD

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

I am fine running out of 5 of those bets. The one concern is whether or not Si Woo Kim is healthy, if he is getting him at 33/1 odds on average is pretty huge.

I actually do not hate the winner w/o market this week (Cantlay, Keegan, Morikawa, and Griffin). If you do that golfers like Harry Hall, Max Greyersman, Alex Smalley and Keith Mitchell are in play.

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

We have 3 Core Plays this week but I personally don't think any of them are as ideal as we would want. They all have the best made cut likelihood in the field, but it is only around 79% likely for the 3. They all are great stat fits, specialist, that have all had good results at this course.

Patrick Cantlay have been a little bit too hit or miss lately to fully trust that they will pay off their price tags, and Keegan is coming in off of a win.

This right here a good example of why I view this week as more of a GPP only week, there is more risk here than normal but also all three of these golfers could win and it would not be shocking.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I think I will be treating Ben Griffin and Max Greyserman more as Core Plays and that is partially due to their price. Playing them in a lineup makes this week a little easier to navigate. Ben Griffin is arguably the best golfer in the field this week, he is the 6th best stat fit, has solid course history, and has played both great golf but smart golf as well. The one slight issue I have found with Griffin is that is form is descending, and maybe one could argue that Griffin isn't this type of golfer, that he is due to go back to his norm, and in a week where he is a clear-cut click maybe he finally is a let down.

Max Greyserman has made 9 straight cuts on the PGA Tour all of which have been around Top 40 finishes or better. He also finished 31st at this event last year. The biggest concern with him is that is he only the 30th best stat fit in the field. Still top 30 or better in all the key metrics, I like that a lot.

Chris Gotterup is someone that could win this week and I wouldn't be too shocked but he is also someone that could miss the cut. He is a little too risky for me to trust as a High Exposure play, but I do like his ceiling potential.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Now this range I do think calls out the potential for GPPs this week. None of these plays are perfect but basically all of them are plays that I could see winning, and it would not be shocking, but like everyone other golfer I do think they could all miss the cut as well, and that is the week that we have.

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