top of page

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)

Picture One: Sorted by Sportsbook Edge - This compares the books line against the average sportsbook line. This is where we are gaining positive EV on a bet. In the first one BetOnline is giving Min Woo Lee a 52% chance to beat Bhatia. Whereas when we pull in the average for other sportsbooks they are giving him around a 55% chance to win that matchup. Thus Betonline is slightly undervaluing this matchup compared to all other books thus we have a slight edge.

Picture Two: This is the same process as state above just using the NineToFive data.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.


I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.

Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.


Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

  • Birdie or Better % (BOB)

  • Ball Striking (BS)

  • Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)

  • Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat

  • Par 5 Scoring (Par5)

  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G)

This tournament is all about scoring, and looking at stats that point to scoring. This is also when we see this be such a hit or miss week.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

  • Course History Last 4 Years


Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

The pricing is very soft this week which has led me to attack this slate a little bit more as I find it easy to make good bets and good lineups. That also is a little bit of the issue this week as well, due to it being a high scoring and easy scoring event we will see more random variance, that being said the golfers that project well and are playing well tend to finish as expect a little bit more frequently. It is a very hit or miss week and I just think it is best to embrace that. Know that you will make some bets and lineups that will be terrible but the opposite will happen as well.


Wednesday rains could lead to the course playing easier than expected this week as the greens are mostly going to be a little bit softer.

Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.

Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

Only 3 golfers that meet the threshold of good outright bets and I already have exposure to all of them. Rai has come down from 40/1 to 30/1 on most sites but I still think he makes for a good outright bet.

  • Noren

  • Thompson

  • McNealy

  • Mitchell

  • Jaeger

  • Kim

  • Pendrith

  • Kizzire

  • Wallace

Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most


I do really like the idea of making fair and balanced lineups as the anchor to most builds as this is where we are getting the best bang for our book. Now I do want to point out that this week we didn't have a single golfer that met the data threshold of being an actual "Core Play" but to me I am happy to treat these three as Core Plays.

McNealy has one knock and that is that he missed the cut at this event in his last start here which was in 2022. But he has a top 10 finish at this track over the past 4 years, he is also coming in off of a top 10 finish, and he is one of the best scores in the field ranking top 10 in BOB %. He should be a safe play that provides upside.

The biggest knock on Aaron Rai would be that he ranks out 56th in BOB % so we will need him to score a little bit more this week. Rai is just an elite data option for this week. He is top 5 or better 3 of the 4 key metrics that we look at for predictably. HE IS WINNING THIS WEEK! (hopefully)

If Aaron Rai doesn't win this week I could see that be because Keith Mitchell finally puts it all together. Mitchell is the best stat fit in the field this week, and is coming in with some of the best form in the field ranking 11th in the field. Mitchell has popped a bunch this season, and has provided good results, but this week he should be able to give us a great result. I have no idea why he is this cheap, and he should be the most owned golfer in the field this week.

High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)


This range does have some slight concerns but the only reason why I didn't make Jaeger and Pendrith Core Plays is that I wanted to put an emphasis on how cheap the actual Core Plays are this week. That being said both Pendrith and Jaeger really pop this week, and both of them I expect to have great weeks.

Thompson I view more as a GPP play this week as he has a recent missed cut, but that is also why we are getting him at such a great discount, so that almost negates the risk associated with him as a play this week. He is also someone that I could see put it altogether and be in contention to win.

One of the more obvious plays this week is Matt Wallace, you could argue he is just as poorly priced as Keith Mitchell was. He should be a cheap safe upside play.

Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.


Tom Kim is tough not to like this week, especially if you ignore his missed cut at this event last year, and one might do that because he finished top 10 here the year prior to that. He is coming in with the best form in the field, and also is someone that can score ranking top 10 in BOB %.

Noren would be an elite option had not missed 2 cuts out his past 3 starts, and that form is why I am knocking him as much as I am. He is a still a great bet to win, but I think that due to his price in DFS this that he is a little too risky.

Mark Hubbard and Adam Svensson are two golfers that have both been on great made cuts streaks, thus natrually they are going to rank out pretty well especially in this field. The one concern that I have from Hubbard is that he has struggled at this track for the most part. He did finish top 12 here 4 years ago. Whereas Svensson has finished 40th and 24th here. I think he is the safer option of those two and should be a safe cash play.

Troy MONEY Merritt is BACK this week! or should I change his nickname to Midwest Merritt? Born and raised in the Midwest Merritt has played extremely well at this event ranking 6th in the field in course history, with no finish being worse than 17th. The nice thing about Merritt is that he is coming in playing fine, which his price wouldn't suggest. Just 4 starts ago Merritt had a top 10 finish. He is someone that at this price his upside can't be beat. He is a great GPP play this week, and I think he makes for a solid top 20 bet.

Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays


I view Cameron Young as more of a GPP only play, as I do Chris Kirk that is why they are only Low Exposure plays for me. Ben Griffin I view as more of a shoulder shrug play. The rest are all solid value plays that all pop whether that being for form or stat fit. They are make for great GPP plays.

      Lower Exposure

High priced golfers that I will be underweight on from the field but still want exposure to, and more GPP only plays.


This range really just highlights how loaded this field truly is the this week in terms of value.


Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)


(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core, Jaeger, Wallace, Svensson, Hubbard

GPP: Thompson, Noren, Young, Tom Kim, Kizzire


*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

My biggest concern with this lineup is really Thompson, and also this lineup might be pretty popular as it seems pretty obvious.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

This week I do see being a decent ownership week, for both avoiding golfers that are coming in over-valued, as well as getting on golfers that are under-valued.

For example there is no reason that Bhatia should be higher owned than Jaeger and Rai, both are better plays on paper. I assume this is just recency bias, that almost feels like and easy pass. I will same I am also happy that Matt Wallace and Keith Mitchell did not pop up as coming in over owned. I like the idea of being at least double the field on Svennson and Hubs.


  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • TikTok


establish in 2018

bottom of page