Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
Total Driving (TD)
Ball Striking (BS)
Greens Gained (GG)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years event/course history
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is a tough week because we are getting a lot of golfers that are not good stat fits, not good in recent form, and not good with their course history. On top of that a lot of these golfers we haven't seen in a while. The more time a golfers has off the more random their results will be too predict.
I will be slightly favoring golfers that have played in the fall swing. (Procore Championship)
Weather:
Good weather for this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
- Patrick Fishburn - Chan Kim - Ben Griffin - Justin Lower - Patrick Rodgers - Rico Hoey - Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svennson, Henrik Norlander
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
One of the best ways to look at how random this week could be is that the data is giving us 0 Core Plays. I think that really does a good job of summarizing this week.
I do not see a single player that we should be treating as a core play as well, rather they are a decent amount of players that I am going out of my way to target.
The two players that I am on this week as Core Plays are two golfers that I think are the safest plays especially given their prices.
Patrick Rodgers has been very reliable lately, making the cut in his past 8 starts on the PGA Tour, the issue is that he hasn't shown much upside, only having one top 10 finish in that span. He has made two straight cuts at this this event. Overall I think we will be getting a made cut at this cheap price tag.
Adam Svensson has had a better finish at this event in each start over the past 4 years. Svensson has also made 3 straight cuts on the PGA Tour coming in off of a 12th and 6th place finish.
The issue with both golfers is that they are not elite stat fits.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Patrick Fishburn, Chan Kim, and Rico Hoey are all plays that really like this week, and that the data really likes, all of them have been in great form, and are all great stat fits. The biggest concern with all of them is that they have not made a start at this tournament.
Nick Hardy I like a lot for the same reason I like Patrick Rodgers, and Adam Svensson. Hardy has good course history, and has made 3 straight cuts. I think there is a good chance that we are going to get a cheap made cut.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Hughes, and Griffin are two players that have been in solid form recently, and both have played well at this tournament in the past. The biggest worry with them as plays is that they are not the best stat fits, thus I think they might be a little bit too pricey.
Jhonattan Vegas is an elite stat fit and is in some of the best form in the field. I worry that I should be on him as an outright bet as well. He makes for a great GPP play, and he makes for a great play in a fair and balanced build.
Meissner is coming in off of a missed cut, and he does not have any course history, besides that he is a great play. He still makes for a great GPP play.
Justin Lower has made 2/3 cuts at this event over the past 4 years, and has made 7 straight cuts on the PGA Tour, and he is ranking top 30 or better in all the key metrics that we look at. Lower should be a great play for us this week.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Mitchell is a little bit too pricey this week for me, I think paying up for him could end up being a lineup mistake. That really my knock against him.
Hubbard has not been playing well lately basically finishing just inside the cut line or just missing out on making the cut. I would argue if he still plays at that level this week that he will make the cut this week, given that the field is not as good this week. Hubbard does have good course history here would should help his chances.
Doug Ghim I would like over Justin Lower if his course history was better, but it isn't bad course history (relatively speaking). He has is a great sit fit, and has made 3 straight cuts. He is a very solid option for us.
Coody I think he gives us a chance at a cheap made cut.
Lower Exposure
Final lineup options, around 5% ownership, and fomo plays.
Takeaways:
All these plays are plays that I do really like, and as I mentioned the margin this week is a lot smaller than normal weeks. I just click the golfers I have already listed a little bit more.
Norlander is one golfer that I have gotten on more as of writing this, and I made him an outright bet. I think he is a great longshot but, and I could argue at his price he could be used in a cash build as well.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Hardy, Lower, Ghim, Hoffman, Norlander
GPP: Hughes, Spaun, Mitchell, Hubbard
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Again just chasing more of a "safe" builder on paper. I really like this lineup path. We are getting a lot of recent made cuts, and good course history.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
McCarty is a golfer that has played a lot lately on the KFT Tour and has played well there we three wins over the past 3 events. My general strategy is to avoid these type of plays especially when the field also like them. It is not a needed risk.
I will say I am a bit bumped that Coody and Hardy are getting around 10% ownership as I view them as good plays. But it is not like they are extreme chalk.
Sam Stevens is a play that I don't might and seeing that he is not being properly valued will lead me to be on him at around 10% this week in 150 lineups. From there I love that Ghim is undervalued as well.
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