Scottish Open 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

We have two tournaments this week, the main one I will be covering is going to be the Scottish Open, but the Cheat Sheet and and the PGA Lineup Builder does have all the data needed for the ISCO Championship (LETS GO KEVIN ROY).

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

For DFS purposes i do like both slates that we are getting. The only issue that we have is that Scottie is pretty difficult to get into builds, and if we fade or are underweight on Scottie and he finishes top 5 then that is where this week could get ugly. The reason why we might not be on Scottie as much is due to the middle salary golfers being the most appealing golfers, and playing them in the same build will likely lead to a higher 6/6 %. When playing Scottie we are basically forced into playing some risky DP Tour players.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2

• Seaside Style Courses (Strokes Gained Total) (Seaside) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

• Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5

  
  

Due to the weather playing a factor in how this course can play we do not always get a great sample of what stats we can use as key stats for predictability. The one stat that has been the best though each year has been total driving. The rest of the stats are more general stats for the week.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Based off of the weather reports we have gotten it doesn't look like it is going to play a factor.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Scottie Scheffler 16/1

• Collin Morikawa 50/1

• Robert Macintyre 55/1

• Corey Conners 65/1

• Justin Thomas 55/1

• Sam Burns 60/1

• Sepp Straka 70/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Matteo Manassero

• Si Woo Kim

• Bud Cauley

• Tommy Fleetwood

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Nick Taylor beating Tom Kim -110 Draftkings

• Harry Hall beating Harris English -115 Draftkings

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Tommy Fleetwood 22/1

• Ryan Fox 66/1

• Nick Taylor 90/1

• Lee Hodges 125/1

• Collin Morikawa 25/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

If you have caught any of Xander's pressers this week it will not give you a ton of confidence that he will be having an elite week. That being said his comments were a lot like Viktor Hovland's before he won. I will be treating Xander as more of a Mid Exposure play.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Scottie is getting knocked in the data for his missed cut at this event 3 years ago, besides that he is all systems go. Basically every other data point that we have for him this week is top 20 or better. We should be able to play him with confidence.

After that it is easier for me to tell you the play I do not like as a high exposure play, and that is Maaverick McNealy. He has made 3 straight made cuts in a row, but overall he is in the 31st best form in the field. He is not a bad play on paper by an means but considering the price I would rather prioritize every other golfer in this tier more. I will be treating him as more of a Mid Exposure play.

I do worry that there isn't much value in Macintyre, Burns, Fox, and Greyserman as they are correctly priced, but that is the week that we have and I am happy to click on all of them.

The player that stands at the most pricing wise this week is Nick Taylor. He is basically are easy click. So if history repeats itself he will either miss the cut with a mistake on 18 of round 2, or give us a late Sunday outright tease. Jokes aside his is in great form, has played this course well, and is a good stat fit. Given his price he is a strong and easy click.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

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