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The 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM: Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.


For the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2025 from a Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) perspective, here's what you need to know:


  • Cut: There is no cut for this event. All professionals will play through all four rounds.

  • Field Size: The tournament features a limited field of 80 players. This is due to its status as a PGA Tour Signature Event.

  • Courses:

    • Pebble Beach Golf Links: This iconic course will host the first two rounds along with Spyglass Hill, and then all rounds on the weekend (Saturday and Sunday).

    • Spyglass Hill Golf Course: Professionals will play here during the first two days of the tournament alongside amateurs in a Pro-Am format.



2025 Season Results:

Betting Units Won in 2025: 38 (Includes all bets called out either on video, X, or on this write-up)

Weeks Cashed (profit) in DFS: 3/4= 75%


*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

 

I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.


PGA DFS: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM 2025 [Core Plays, Outright Bets + First Look Build]
Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections.

To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.


 

 Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.


  • Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (Combination Stat - Bogey Avoidance and B2B) Key Stat 1

  • Par 5 Scoring (Par4) Key Stat 2

  • Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

  • Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 4


This is a tournament that is typically about limiting mistakes, and we see that echoed in the key stats that pop for this event. It is somewhat of a straightforward week stat fit wise, we just need the golfers to show up who will be good stat fits.


Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)


  • Last 4 years Course History (Event History)


SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED / Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.


This week is a strange week because we have a few golfers that played on TGL on Monday night, and just how prepared will they be to play well here at least for the first two rounds. Those golfers are: Adam Scott, Rory, Tom Kim, and Keegan Bradley. All of those golfers would be golfers that we would be considering as plays this week but I may just be writing them off. We also have Scottie back for the first time this season, and his first competitive event back after a long time. We also do not know how much his hand injury will effect his ability to swing and control the golf ball. Or was this just an over-played injury to get him out of events early on in the season.


For No-cut events we know to target the studs and duds approach to produce successful DFS lineups. The issue is the best option this week is arguably Patrick Cantlay, and he is too cheap.


I worry that the lineup path this week is somewhat too easy, but also I am not getting to Scottie this week and if he goes off that could mean that this does not end up being a good week. But not being on him leads to the easy lineup path.

 

Weather:

Last week the weather was not projected to play a big role, and then the wind came in, and that ended up being the main story. That could be the case again this week where the wind doesn't seem to be a factor but being a seaside course that could quickly change. The reason why we see stats like Total Driving and Ball Striking tend to matter more here is due to that weather as well. So if it does play a role at least we are in a way already accounting for it.


  Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)


TBD


3 Ball Bets Round 1:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets


TBD


Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

We have one + EV bet this week for the Tournament, and that is Corey Conners to beat Taylor Pendrith on BetMGM. Although the NineToFive Data likes Pendrith over Conners, the BetMGM line is an outlier. If you want to avoid this bet as a whole you could as well.


  Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)


Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical

 thresholds used to determine winners.

I know for sure that I am betting on Pendrith from this list, and I think that I want to bet on Collin Morikawa, and JT. But from that point on I think I am ok passing up on Conners, Keegan, and Hideki.


My Outright Bets:

  • Taylor Pendrith 50/1 FanDuel

  • Patrick Cantlay 20/1 FanDuel

  • Beau Hossler 70/1 FanDuel

  • Collin Morikawa 14/1 FanDuel

  • Justin Thomas 16/1 Betonline, BET365


  Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

My Takeaways:

I have a ton of builds with Cantlay, Morikawa, and Sam Burns. I do view all of them plus JT as the players we should be going out of our way to target. With Scottie the concern with him would not be putting up a top 5 finish which is what he needs to do to pay off this price tag.


     Data Tag: High Exposure

 Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

 My Takeaways:

The slight flaw for Taylor Pendrith is a recent bad finish where he finished 45th, and his 49th place finish at this event 3 years ago, besides that he is an elite option on paper, and is someone we should be targeting a lot this week.


Again the issue with Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley are that they played the TGL on Monday, and had to take a play to Pebble Beach either that night or on Tuesday, thus leading to not that much prep this week. Two golfers that would be easy clicks on paper are two golfers that I will most likely be staying away from both in betting on for DFS.

(I will still target them in 150 lineups)


   Data Tag: Mid Exposure

 Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

 My Takeaways:

I do want to get to JT a lot this week, and I will be treating him more as a high exposure play this week. Looking at JT as a play it does call out how good of options on paper Beau Hossler, and Russell Henley are especially for chasing upside, In a normal week were we wouldn't be going out of our way to do studs and duds they both probably be in my main build.


I have been burnt by Beau in the past enough to say he is an easy outright click, in regards to how I viewed Jason Day as an easy outright click 2 weeks ago, but Beau has been someone that has been knocking on the door, and if the trend continues were we continue to see more random outright winners then Hossler has a good chance to be one of those golfers.


Sepp Straka would be a a pretty elite option this week if not for him coming in off of a win, but he took last week off, and he should be good to go this week. I think the mid exposure tag is perfect for him.


Rory and Fleetwood are tough clicks to me, as they are making their first starts of the season this week. Those two and Aberg are tougher clicks to me given their prices, especially compared to the other options we have around their price tags.


    Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

 My Takeaways:

Jason Day, Harry Hall, and Tom Hoge are all golfers that are "Shoulder Shrug" plays. Plays that I am happy to end my builds on.


From there I would agree we should get to some of Conners, Hideki, and Poston. Not elite options but also would not be shocking to see them pop.


Other plays I am getting too: Sam Stevens, Rickie Fowler, Nick Taylor, Thomas Detry, Lee Hodges, Keith Mitchell.


This week is a week again where we will need to be doing studs and duds, and it is pretty crazy to me that we are getting Hodges at almost the min price. Given his form, and Stat Fit, plus having course experience he makes for a great value play. He should be able to out produce his price tag. On top of that if you're someone that is looking for a long-shot bet Hogdes is a great options. 150/1 for a guy that has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 7 starts is pretty crazy. An easy bet for him would also be 4/1 to top 20. If that doesn't hit I can live with it.


Rickie Fowler has been playing better golfer lately, both him and Keith Mitchell should be able to score enough to be able to out produce their price tag. Mark Hubbard should also be a safe option to out produce his price tag, but I do worry that he does not hold as much GPP upside as Mitchell or Fowler.

 

Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.


Cash: Cantlay, Hodges

GPP: Hossler, Henley


SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

I actually really like the first look build above, and I would like the Optimal Lineup from the lineup builder as well if not for Keegan and Scott play at TGL on Monday. But I think it is worth calling out the ownership for that build. Very low for a limited field event.


I tried to make the chalkiest "good" build and that was Morikawa, Cantlay, JT, Hoge, McCarthy, and Rose which really is not terrible.


Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder

PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE

From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.

I am actually pretty shocked at the ownership for Taylor Pendrith, seems like a clear cut play, and I assumed that he would be chalk. I do not see any of the golfers this week as "good" data related fades in terms of ownership.


That is all for this week. Good Luck

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