The 2025 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

Betting Units Profit in 2025: 67.53

Events Cashed in DFS: 8/14 = 57% (7 pushes)

H2H Bets: 83/127 | 25

3-Ball: 96/214 | 24

FRL: 9/117| 28.1

Eric's Outrights: 4/144 | -51

Prop Sites: 88/136 | 41.43

925 Outrights 8 | 60.5

2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

LATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I like the pricing this week for the most part, and it does seem like a fair and balance week lineup wise which I like. But doing that we do end up targeting some golfers that do not have course history which is a slight worry. The other worry is the ownership and the price for Scottie Scheffler who is the top play this week. But he is extremely high priced and he is also the highest owned by almost triple the next best option. Playing Scottie does open up a path where getting 6/6 becomes extremely difficult. I get playing him in GPP with the NineToFive optimizer where you can randomly get to other golfers and hope to get a correct combination to get 6/6 but for hand builds it is a little bit ugly.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 3

• Par 4 Scoring (Par4) Key Stat 4

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 5

  
  

It simple this is a second shot golf course. Ball Striking + Strokes Gained Approach are the best stats to use targeting that.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

The winds do not look to be that bad ranging from around 15-17 mph winds on Thursday and Friday. This is enough to slightly factor in the wind. We should pay attention to any potential weather split come Wednesday evening (for Thursday and Friday) As it sits right now it just looks like the golfers that have the AM tee times for both days will have the slight advantage.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Tommy Fleetwood 40/1

• Aaron Rai 45/1

• Maverick McNealy 40/1

• Jordan Spieth 35/1

• Hideki Matsuyama 40/1

• Robert Macintyre 50/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Ryo Hisatsune

• Kurt Kitayama

• Alejandro Tosti

• Jake Knapp

• Steven Fisk

• Rico Hoey

• Kevin Yu

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Robert Macintyre beating Ben Griffin -111 BetMGM

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Good outright bets have now won 6 straight events in a row. From this point on I will mostly just be betting on these golfers.

Bets:

• Scottie Scheffler 2.4/1 Pointsbet

• Tommy Fleetwood 25/1 Draftkings

• Daniel Berger 22/1 FanDuel

• Si Woo Kim 40/1 most books

• Aaron Rai (possible outright bet) 33/1 FanDuel

• Ryan Gerard 70/1 FanDuel

Data Tag: Core Plays

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