The 2025 Memorial Tournament: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- 5 days ago
- 8 min read
This will be a quicker version of the weekly write-up. This is due to me spending a lot of my time working on updating the 925 Custom Model for Fantasy Golf. A tool that I am excited to get out to site members. This will hopefully be available by next week. Below you will see a picture of some of the updates I have made to it. The goal with the updates is the modernize the current Custom Model page, make it easier to user on mobile devices, make it easier to use and implement for each slate, and lastly I would like to use this structure to update all the tools minus the PGA DFS Cheat Sheet that is more data extensive. I do not want to release this until it is completed though. I will let members know when this has been updated.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I mention my issue with this week in the video, but I'll touch on it again. We really only have one safe play this week and that is Scottie Scheffler and he is priced that way. Every other golfer comes with some risk with how they are priced. We are being forced into playing Scottie, or going with fair and balanced builds. Most lineups regardless of lineup structure will about about a 20-24% likelihood to get 6/6 across the cut line. So basically we should be getting to Scottie and figuring it from there. That leads to a pretty annoying and ugly week for DFS.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Greens in Regulation (GIR) Key Stat 3
Par 5 Scoring (Par5) Key Stat 4
Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 5
This is a course that typically plays as a harder scoring course, but with the event style where almost 70% of the field will make the cut we need to target golfers that are going to score thus that is why a stat like Birdie or Better % pops a little more than Birdie to Bogey Ratio (which we would typically use for harder scoring events). This is a longer track, but it is unique where it sets up more as a second shot course. We see Ball Striking be a key stat mostly due to the need to hit greens. Golfers that are finding the green are not making mistakes, thus they are the golfers that will play the best.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
We have another week where rain will most lead to the greens playing a little bit softer. On Thursday we could see some easier scoring if this ends up being the case. But looking at the Friday weather forecast where we are getting 15mph winds could lead to some weather advantages. Basically we want to be targeting golfers that have AM tee times on Friday. Now if this were a full tournament field event that would mean more, but with it being a limited field event it is not as drastic as an advantage as it could be. But looking at golfers that have later tee times on Friday it kind of sucks. Bud Cauley, Jhonattan Vegas, and Matti Schmid were my favorite value plays this week, and they get the latest tee times. This also makes golfers like Xander, Hovland, Aberg, Hideki, and Morikawa more difficult to pay up for. This could further makes us end up on Scottie.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Xander 25/1
Moikawa 251
Daniel Berger 40/1
Scottie 12/1
Corey Conners 45/1
Please note do not bet FRL bets on BetMGM this week, their odds are terrible.
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Sam Burns beating Nick Dunlap
Scottie beating Sepp Straka
JT Poston beating JT Poston
Bud Cauley beating Harry Higgs.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Xander beating Scottie +265 Casesars
Tommy Fleetwood beating Patrick Cantlay -110 DK
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Bets:
Scottie Scheffler 3/1
Tommy Fleetwood 40/1 FD
Corey Conners 30/1
Sepp Straka 45/1
Shane Lowry 40/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
The worst data put that we have coming in for Scottie is that he ranks 8th in the field in GIR, and finished 8th at an event 4 starts ago. He is a core play.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
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