The 2025 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

Betting Units Profit in 2025: 51.5

Events Cashed in DFS: 8/14 = 57% (6 pushes)

H2H Bets: 80/121 | 25

3-Ball: 88/202 | 17.9

FRL: 9/112| 34.1

Outrights: 3/134 | -46

Prop Sites: 83/129 | 36.43

2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

We have soft enough pricing to really make whichever lineup path you want work including getting two of Rory, Scottie, Bryson, and Xander in a build together. This week will really come down to weather or not the values end up showing up. You will see this reflected in my studs and duds sample lineup at the bottom of this write-up. The one concern I have have is that although the pricing is soft in spots, we aren't getting any projected free squares this week. The safest play that has the most upside while being priced poorly is Corey Conners, and that is basically it. That is what makes this week interesting.

Giving the course conditions leading to limited practice rounds I will be targeting golfers that have course experience here a bit more.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1

• 200 Scoring (200+) Key Stat 2

• Greens Gained GG) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SGOT) Key Stat 4

• Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 5

  
  

With heavy rains occurring on the course I type this that should lead to the distance off the tee playing an event bigger factor than it normally does, as the course as a whole could play softer thus balls will not run out as much. We should see Strokes Gained Off the Tee, and 200+ Scoring be more pivotal due to that. After that we know what to expect golfers that are successful are going to pepper the greens, and not make that many bogeys. In simple we want to target golfer that are long off the tee but also golfer that are smart. (Think Xander)

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

We have seen this course the past 4 years, but in 2022 the Presidents Cup was played on the course so the Well Fargo Championship was played on a different course. So we will be looking at the 2024, 2023, and 2021 results for this course as well as the last 4 results in majors on average for H4.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

After the Wednesday rain the weather should not play a factor. Like last week I do think the opening round could be the easiest scoring due to the green being softer and the most receptive it will be.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Rory 16/1

• Scottie 16/1

• Xander 33/1

• Cantlay 45/1

• Fleetwood 50/1

• Conners 60/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Power

• Mitchell

• Kitayama

• Straka

• Olesen

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Justin Thomas Beating Bryson +160 BetMGM

• Xander Beating Jon Rahm +105 BetMGM

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

5 out of the last 6 winners on the PGA Tour have been considered "Good" Outright Bets which as the season progresses we should continue to expect those type of data points to be accurate. I actually like all 4 a decent amount, and if you find yourself betting on Scottie and Rory at 5/1 adding in Patrick Cantlay, and Tommy Fleetwood or other golfer that you like does make sense.

Below are the bets in order of how I would go about betting on the golfers. If you're betting on Rory and Scottie you could also try the w/o markets for the other golfers listed.

Bets:

• Scottie Scheffler 5/1

• Rory 5/1

• Patrick Cantlay 45/1

• Tommy Fleetwood 45/1

• Xander Schauffele 22/1

• Justin Thomas 22/1

• Corey Conners 70/1 FanDuel

• Bryson 10/1 DK

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