The 2025 RBC Canadian Open: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

This will be a quicker version of the weekly write-up. This is due to me spending a lot of my time working on updating the 925 Custom Model for Fantasy Golf. A tool that I am excited to get out to site members. This will hopefully be available by next week. Below you will see a picture of some of the updates I have made to it. The goal with the updates is the modernize the current Custom Model page, make it easier to user on mobile devices, make it easier to use and implement for each slate, and lastly I would like to use this structure to update all the tools minus the PGA DFS Cheat Sheet that is more data extensive. I do not want to release this until it is completed though. I will let members know when this has been updated.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

Yea another Red week, but I was tempted to make it a yellow week. I do like some of the lineups I have been able to make but that is more because I know for everyone this week it is going to be a difficult week. Rory and Conners are the clear-cut pay up plays but they are not too high priced whereas a lot of the weeks we have been dealing with what to do with a golfer that was priced in the 12K and up range.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Strokes Gained Differential (SG DIF) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Par 4 Scoring (Par4) Key Stat 4

• Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 5

  
  

This is a new course this week so we do not have any key stats to go off of. The key stats for me this week are just general assumptions with how the course is going to play. This is a longer track with thicker rough, and strategically placed bunkers. This leads me to believe this course could end up being more of an accuracy based course.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Due to us not having course history i will be looking at these comp courses using the tournaments:

• Charles Schwab Challenge 2025

• Memorial Tournament 2025

• Travelers Championship 2025

• Wyndham Championship 2025

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Again rain on Thursday, what is this season. At least we are not getting heavy winds on Friday. So yea again the course could end up playing softer than expected due to the early rain. With the lack of wind maybe the course as a whole ends up playing easier than I expect. I do think due to the morning wave we will not need to focus on any weather wave for FRL betting or showdown purposes.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Rory 16/1

• Conners 35/1

• Lowry 40/1

• Macintyre 45/1

• Keith Mitchell 55/1

• Taylor Pendrith 40/1

• Harry Hall 55/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Chris Gotterup +100 over Alex Noren Draftkings

• Shane Lowry over Ludvig Aberg +100 BetMGM

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Due to this being a new course I am including in possible outright bets in this week as well.

Bets:

• Corey Conners 20/1

• Shane Lowry 22/1

• Robert Macintyre 28/1

• Taylor Pendrith 28/1

• Sam Burns 28/1

• Nick Taylor 45/1

• Harry Hall 45/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

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