The 2025 U.S. Open: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

The U.S. Open seems to be the easiest week on paper to narrow down who to be on for PGA DFS purposes, and that is due to extremely soft pricing. The struggle that I have had this week is with Outright bets. I know I am getting to Scottie and Bryson this week (go figure), but after that I can make a solid reason to get to 15 more golfers as potential outright bets. I have 3 longshot bets that I like and two golfers that are known for not getting it done.

The nice part about the US Open is that although this tournament is played at a different course each year we know exactly what key stats to look at. When a course is chosen it is chosen knowing that the course will play with fast greens, extremely thick rough, the course will be a longer track, and typically there will be hole being played incorrectly to increase the scoring total (making a Par 3 play at nearly 300 yards). This has led to some extreme success at this event.

Outright bets that we have hit at this tournament:

• Bryson DeChambeau 2024 - Pinehurts

• Wyndham Clark 2023 - LACC

• Matt Fitzpatrick 2022 - The Country Club

• Jon Rahm 2021 - Torrey Pines

• Gary Woodland 2019 - Pebble Beach

Now the only reason I am calling this out is each year I stick to the same script with what stat to look at for this tournament, the past results is what gives me confidence that this will be a good week.

It is worth calling out that only T60 and ties will make the cut so even though the lineup process is straight forward for PGA DFS we can still expect a low 6/6 %.

Also in other news the NineToFive Custom Model that I have teased is not in beta and available for site members. I will be working on a how to use video shortly. In the mean time if you are enjoying the tool, or have any updates you would like for this tool let me know in the NineToFive PGA Discord.

Again the goal of this tool is to curate the data as much as possible so that it is as straightforward as possible for you to use. I think I have succeeded in doing that. My next goal will be to update a lot of the current tools (minus the Cheat Sheet) that holds the same style and functionally. These updates will make all of the tools much easier to use on mobile devices as well.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: GREEN

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

For PGA DFS purposes this is a straight forward week. My only concern for max entering is I am a little bit too dialed into the easy value plays. If some of them bomb well that could end up turning what looked like an extremely easy week into a bad week. That being said there are enough ways to differentiate lineups that I feel confident I can make good, and different lineups.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Strokes Gained Differential (SG DIF) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• 200+ Scoring (200+) Key Stat 4

• Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 5

  
  

So what we know about the US Open is that is not just bombes but golf that also hit the fairway that are the golfers that are the most successful, it needs to be those two stats combined, and thus we are looking at Total Driving. With that Ball Striking is also key. Those two and Bogey Avoidance are ALWAYS the key stats for US Opens. From there we just need to look at which golfers are playing good golf. Golfers that are in good form tend to be the ones that play well here even more so. That is because the course is set up to favor good shots and penalize bad ones. Lastly with the thick rough and the longer track golfers will find themselves hitting longer irons into greens thus we are looking at 200+ Scoring.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Due to us not having course history i will be looking at the past 2 US Opens, plus this years Masters and PGA Championship.

• H1: US Open 2024

• H2: US Open 2023

• H3: PGA Championship 2025

• H4: Masters 2025

• -------------------------

• H5: US Open 2022

• H6: US Open 2021

• H7: US Open 2020

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

We can't draw many conclusions from the weather report in terms of if it will make a difference of who we should be on. But the Friday storms could potentially cause delays. If this occurs then the we could see some random results with players having to stop and start. A hot golfer could lose momentum. Also if we do get rain the course could end up playing softer than expected. If the greens become receptive this course could end up playing easier than expected. If that happens that does bring the rest of the field slightly.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

Most of the best numbers are on DraftKings

• Tommy Fleetwood 45/1

• Harris English 70/1

• Xander Schauffle 33/1

• Bryson DeChambeau 20/1

• Shane Lowry 50/1

• Patrick Cantlay 45/1

• Taylor Pendrith 70/1

• Keegan Bradley 65/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

TBD

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to ninetofivesports.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

Subscribe Now