The 2025 Valero Texas Open: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Explore The 2025 Valero Texas Open: Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value. Get insights on top picks, bets, and lineup strategies.

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

Betting Units Profit in 2025: 98.43

Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/11 = 54% (2 pushes)

H2H Bets: 61/91 | 21

3-Ball: 74156 | 32.9

FRL: 8/73 | 51.1

Outrights: 1/79 | -31

Prop Sites: 56896 | 24.43

2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

Valero Texas Open: PGA DFS Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Values + CORE PLAYS DraftKings

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow:

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

This is a week where we are getting 4 "Core Plays" on paper in Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners

and Denny McCarthy as all three golfers are coming in with good form, good course history and are good stat fits. The issue is that they are all priced above 9K making them tough to fit all into one build. Going McCarthy and Bradley does start the lineup off well though which then allows you to get good enough golf plays from that point.

The issue lineup wise this week is the same as it has been for the past month, no matter what lineup construction I have I do not like the last golfer I am closing my builds out with. That leads me to believe that getting 6/6 will be once again very difficult. That being said we do have enough solid value options this week that we know are good plays enough on paper given their price tags.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie To Bogey Ratio (E2B) Key Stat 1

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 2

• Par 4 Scoring (Par4) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Tee To Green (SGT2G) Key Stat 4

• Strokes Gained Total (SGTTL) Key Stat 5

  
  

The one interesting this about this week is that the key stats that pop are all general key stats, it calls out that basically any type of golfer can win demanding on how that golfer is hitting the ball. We do know by looking at the data that Birdie To Bogey Ratio pops the most, and Par 4 Scoring pops a little more here than other spots. After that we just take a look the top 3 key stats.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

• Last 4 years course history.

  
  

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

I like the fact that we are looking at the same wind throughout the whole tournament around 14mph winds. A slight chance of rain on Thursday could soften up the course and make it play a bit easier, but I do not think it will cause the course to lose its identity like we saw last week and at the Cognizant Classic.

Valero Texas Open PGA Tour Weather Report

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

• Tommy Fleetwood 35/1

• Patrick Cantlay 35/1

• Denny McCarthy 45/1

• Si Woo Kim 50/1

• Keith Mitchell 50/1

• Bud Cauley 60/1

• Sam Stevens 60/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Steven Fisk

• Matteo Manessero

• Bud Cauley

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Tony Finau beating Jordan Spieth +106 BetMGM

• Patrick Cantlay beating Hideki -105 Bovada

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

All 3 good outright bets I am fine getting to the only one that I find interesting is JT Poston. Keegan Bradley, and Tommy Fleetwood are easy clicks.

Bets:

• Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 Most Books

• Corey Conners 16/1 Most Books

• Denny McCarthy 30/1 BetMGM

• Keegan Bradley 28/2 Bovada

• Patrick Cantlay 18/1 Most Books

• Daniel Berger 35/1

I was close to getting to Bud Cauley and Lee Hodges as outright bets because they are great plays on paper but when push comes to shove I don't know if they will have what it takes to win, thus I like them as placement bets.

Bud Cauley 2.4/1 to top 20 PointsBet

Lee Hodges 3/1 to top 20 Draftking and FanDuel

I also like the idea of getting to a little bit of Mac Meissner who is a Texas guy that finished 10th at this event last year, and has been trending form wise making 3 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. I like the idea of him more as a made cut bet at +100 on PointsBet.

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

Pretty simple and easy two see why these golfers are all coming in as core plays. The issue would be fitting 3 of them into a main build, in GPPs I will be mixing and matching these 2 of these golfers into different combinations of builds. They are all safe and all hold upside.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Now this is where I disagree with the data a little bit Jordan has played really well at this course but given his price and given the fact that we have 4 better options than him at similar price tags he seems like more of a lineup filler rather than someone I want to go out of my way to target.

Akshay, I like slightly more than Jordan Spieth as does the data. 3 Top 10s in his last 4 starts, with a victory at this tournament last year. Yea he really standout, and now that I am writing this I actually agree Bhatia should be a High Exposure play.

McNealy and Hall are both a little bit too risky for me to fully trust as High Exposure plays, they have made 2 straight cuts each at this event and both rank out as top 10 Specialist so i understand the appeal. They both hold enough upside, but it is the risk of them missing the cut that worries me.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

The reason why Daniel Berger and Patrick Cantlay are not High Exposure plays is simply because they do not have Course History here, I am willing to overlook that given how good of stat fits both of them are and how strong of form both of these golfers are in.

Keith Mitchell has really been trending towards a win for almost a year now, it wouldn't be too crazy to see that happen this week where he has two top 20 finishes in two starts here. He ranks top 30 or better in all the key metrics. The thing I am really wondering with Mitchell is can he have the FRL for 3 straight events now?

The rest of the golfers listed here are all fine options given their prices. I personally like Lee Hodges, Victor Perez, and Bud Cauley more than Rico Hoey, Sam Stevens, and SI Woo Kim, but also I get the appeal for those three golfers as well. Just because I like Hodges, Perez and Cauley more given their prices doesn't mean that Si Woo, Hoey and Stevens are bad clicks either.

I view Sam Ryder as a good GPP play but bad Cash option, I also think Putnam is more of a shoulder shrug play.

Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.

I just mentioned how much I like Hodges, Perez, and Cauley as they are all great stat fits that and are all in great form considering their price.

I think Perez is one of the few clear outliers in terms of price this week. He has made 4 straight cuts in a row now, made the cut at this event last year, and stat fit wise does not really have a worry. I view him as a cash play, and as a result I also think he is a great made cut bet at +100 on PointsBet. I don't want to push my luck too much but he is 3.5/1 on PointsBet as well to Top 20 which to me seems close. He has finished 18th, 22nd, and 18th in his last 3 starts so it is intriguing.

I have closed out a decent amount of builds with JT Poston, Ryan Gerard, and Jake Knapp they are golfers that are appealing but also not golfers I feel the need to go out of my way to get to so I am happy the data agrees.

Salinda, and Hoge are both a little too cheap for golfers that have made 4+ cuts in a row which in years past was not saying all too much but this year we have had a lot of random missed cuts so you could chase their made cut streaks.

I will say Gary Woodland is an interesting GPP only play I think I will try to get to him maybe closer to 7% of my builds knowing fully that he could miss the cut but he just finished 2nd last week and has two top 10s here in 2022, and 2021.

Player Pool

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

*Mason Anderson is a golfer that I did close out a build with where I really liked my first 5 golfers and clicked on him because of the golfers I thought he had the best chance to make the cut. He has made 4 out of his past 5 cuts on the PGA Tour 3 of those made cuts being T61 or worse though.

Cash

• Core Plays + Perez

GPP

• Bhatia, Aberg, Woodland, Hoey, Ryder, and McNealy

Sample Lineup

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

I like this lineup but as you can see I closed my build out with Berger, and Hall both find options this week but Berger has 0 course history here in the last 4 years, and Hall has missed the cut in 3 and 4 events ago. Hodges is still a slight worry being that this is his second start after returning from injury.

Slight pivot would be to go to Bhatia over Berger an then go with Gerard instead of Hall.

Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):

From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder

Gary Woodland makes this lineup a GPP only lineup. I would actually consider Griffin more of a GPP only lineup as well.

Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage

Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.

I am looking at the ownerships and they all mostly seem correct, I do not see a glaring error. Jordan is being over-valued for sure but the he does love his Texas Tracks.

Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! The NineToFive Membership is only $10 a month, which will give you access to all the tools available on the site.