The 2025 Valspar Championship: Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- Mar 18
- 10 min read
Welcome to our breakdown of the 2025 Valspar Championship! As one of the PGA Tour’s most anticipated events, this tournament brings together top-tier talent, challenging course conditions, and plenty of betting opportunities. In this post, we’ll dive into the core plays you can’t ignore, the best bets to consider, our lineup-building process, undervalued value plays, and the full player pool to watch. Whether you’re a seasoned DFS golfer or just here for the thrill of the wager, we’ve got you covered with insights to elevate your game plan for this Copperhead classic. Let’s tee off!
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 111.3
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/9 = 66% (2 pushes)
H2H Bets: 57/80 | 26
3-Ball: 71/144 | 34.9
FRL: 7/66 | 42.1
Outrights: 1/71 | -21
Prop Sites: 52/82 | 29.3
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
Make sure to subscribe to the NineToFive Golf YouTube Channel. Link is below.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red/Yellow:
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is another week where on paper we are not getting that many "safe" options, and most of the golfers that we will be targeting are golfers that I would consider "GPP Only" plays. Some of the safe golfers that I like to make the cut do not hold as much upside as I would like as well.
This will be a week in which I expect a lot of variance. The best way for me to sum up my expectations for this week is that I think 4/6 will be the norm; there really shouldn't be a golfer that is chalk. The only one great golf play that we have considering their price tag is Taylor Moore, but Taylor Moore has a PM tee time and as of writing this, it looks like we could be getting a significant tee time advantage that I will touch on in the weather portion of the write-up. I expect to have about half of my lineups to be pretty bad this week, but the lineups that do well could and should have a better chance at climbing the GPP leaderboard. Basically, the increased variance typically creates a bigger edge for the good lineups.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Birdie To Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 1 - Combination Stat for Bogey Avoidance and Birdie to Bogey Ratio.
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 4
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 5
The course has added some length to it this year but overall I am still expecting it to play the same. We should be targeting golfers that are "smart" golfers. Golfers that do not make many mistakes, and set themselves up in good spots are the golfers that tend to made the cut and also win here.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Now depending on where you look the wind report might be showing it to be a little bit higher, the one main thing is that on Thursday it is currently projecting to show an advantage for the AM tee times. Enough so that we might have to plan to make some AM/PM and PM/AM only lineups with a majority of those lineups coming from the AM/PM waves.
Right now I am planning on going around 55% of lineups with the AM/PM tee times, 20% with the PM/AM, and then 25% normal. We know that weather can change, and delays from the PGA can be a little random. Just two years ago we have around 4 events in which we had a known projected tee time advantage for a wave only for the the event to get delayed thus causing the edges to dwindle.
Given how much odds have shifted for golfers that have the AM/PM split I might end up getting to 90 of lineups with AM/PM only by lineup lock. If you're wanting to attack this way remember to use the NineToFive Custom Model, select "Extreme AM Emphasis" Export that data then upload it into the Lineup Builder. That being said the NineToFive Fantasy Projections are already accounting for the golfers odds to win and make the cut so that will already be somewhat reflected
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Sepp Straka 30/1
Keith Mitchell 75/1 Bet365
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1 Fanduel
Nicolai Hojgaard 80/1 Bet365
Kevin Roy 100/1 Bet365
Michael Kim 50/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Kevin Roy - 2.41
Jake Knapp - 3.17
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Sam Burns over Jordan Spieth -118 BetMGM.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
I am right there with the data I will be betting on these two. They are two of the better options this week. Both of them are on the favorable side of the potential weather advantage as well.
Bets:
Tommy Fleetwood: 16/1 Bovada - 11/1 FanDuel
Sepp Straka 22/1 Bovada - 18/1 FanDuel
Michael Kim 40/1 Bovada - 30/1 FanDuel
Taylor Moore 80/1 FanDuel (If the weather report is wrong this becomes a great value)
Kevin Roy 125/1 Bovada (Can't quit this dude. He has the favorable weather split, is a Tampa guy, and had 12 place finish here last year.
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
I agree that Tommy Fleetwood is the safest play this week on paper, but typing that out feels ugly. If he can't get it done this week with his projected advantage at a course where he is checking all the boxes it my never occur for him.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Justin Thomas and Shane Lowry both have the PM/AM weather split, and as a result I will be knocking them down to at least Mid Exposure Plays, that will be the case with all golfers that have the PM/AM weather split. Now that being said just be checking the weather so we can make adjustments if needed.
Sepp Straka is perfect as a High Exposure option. He has a missed cut three events ago which was still a 69th place finish. He has sense finished top 15 or better. He is a top 10 stat fit and Specialist in the field. Even though he missed the cut at this event last year at least he has course experience.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Interestingly enough basically all of the Mid Exposure Plays are golfer that have the PM/AM split. I will knock most of those golfers slightly, but how far is too far that is the question, and we will not have that answer until closer to lineup lock.
If not for the weather split I would like Knapp, and Smalley as potential outright bets, and I would want to chase the upside of Conners. Joel Dahmen is a value play that I like as well would have loved for Dahmen to get the favorable weather split actually.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.
Kevin Roy has an AM tee time, and although I wasn't planning on playing him too much I am getting drawn in again. He is an elite stat fit, that has played this course well. Maybe it is best we just hope for another FRL or even First Round Top 10 from him and not bet on him outright, at the very least I think he makes for great GPP play.
I also think given the weather splits, and given that we are most likely targeting Straka and Fleetwood a golfer like Jacob Bridgeman could be a good cash play. First he is cheap, he has course experience even if it was a missed cut, he is a decent stat fit, and he has made 4 straight cuts in a row. Not a play I would normally like but now he is a decent click.
Along that same thought process Matt Kuchar looks like a great cash click as well, and heck you could now make an argument for him as an outright bet this week. He is not the best stat fit in the field, and not in perfect form but compared to other golfers he looks good. He has made 4 straight cuts on the PGA Tour and two straight cuts here.
Player Pool
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash
Fleetwood, Kuchar
GPP
The PM wave he jokes in a serious tone. But Kevin Roy, Stephan Jaeger, and Sam Burns are good GPP plays as well.
Sample Lineup
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
The build above you will see I am trying to get to Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, and Michael Kim as the pay ups as the golfers I trust the most in the AM/PM wave to make the cut from there I do think Kuchar is a good click for Cash contests. I do like Bramlett as well but you could pivot to Kevin Roy in GPPs. Jeremy Paul I do see him as a cheap made cut. He is someone that played well at the Puerto Rico Open getting a top 20 finish.
Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):
From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
The lineup above does have a lot of upside but it also is a good summary of this week. I could see this lineup going 3 for 6 in terms of golfers making the cut. I could also see it being a lineup that contents for a GPP. That is the week that wee have though.
Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage
Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.
I believe that the ownership and ownership projections will change even more throughout the week. If there does end up being a weather advantage one way or another the ownerships could change up until lineup lock. It will be best to check the ownership leverage page before lineup lock.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! The NineToFive Membership is only $10 a month, which will give you access to all the tools available on the site.
Comments