The Waste Management Phoenix Open is this week, and it is the first truly good betting and DFS that we have had thus far. The process this week also seems pretty straightforward in terms of where we will be able to find success for the People Open.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
2025 Season Results:
Betting Units Won in 2025: 33.1
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 3/4 = 75% (1 push)
H2H Bets Record: 32/42
3-Ball / 2-Ball Bets: 43/82 (12 ties)
FRL / Low Round (Based off of events): 5/28 = 5 units profit
Outright Winners: 0/28 = -28 Units
PrizePicks / Underdog Bets: 16/17 - *3 Ties = 17 Units Profit.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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 Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (Combination Stat - Bogey Avoidance and B2B) Key Stat 1
Good Drive % (GD %) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 4
Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG ARG) Key Stat 5
This is one of the courses that rewards golfers who are playing well, and penalizes golfers that are not.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History (Event History)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
The pricing this week in DFS is extremely soft, which makes any lineup path you want work in a viable way. Want to get JT, and Scottie into a build together, SIMPLE, want to get Scottie, and 5 other top 25 plays in a build together SIMPLE! This is a week that is a full tournament field event so we are getting the edge there, and we are targeting a lot of golfers who have now made multiple starts on the PGA Tour. The more starts a golfers has had this season the more reliable the data will be on those golfers, thus bigger and better edges for us.
For betting this week you can either be betting on Scottie to win, and that is your only bet for the week, or you can take a shot at some of the great long-shot value that we are getting this week.
Weather:

Weather should not be playing a factor this week.
  Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
IÂ will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Justin Thomas 28/1
Hideki 30/1
Sepp Straka 50/1
Rasmus Hojgaard 55/1
Sam Burns 40/1
Nick Taylor 60/1
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Rasmus Hojggard beating Corey Conners +100 - Draftkings
Sepp Straka beating Tom Kim -105 - BETMGM
Coorey Conners beating Byeong Hun An -115 Fanduel
  Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1Â = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
 thresholds used to determine winners.

We have one "good" outright bet, and I am little bit surprised by that, and by the fact that it is Sepp Straka. Straka does make for a solid option this week though as he has show good recent upside, has course experience (although its bad), and is the best stat fit.
My Outright Bets:
Sepp Straka 45/1
Sam Burns 25/1
Billy Horschel 80/1
Lucas Glover 80/1
Sam Stevens 80/1
Charley Hoffman 125/1
  Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

My Takeaways:
I agree with the data, and it really is no shock that the data view these two as the two best plays this week. It is funny looking at their results from last week though, where Scottie finished top 10, and JT finished Top 50 yet they basically scored the same amount of points.
That tells us two things, one Scottie never truly got going, and still finished top 10. Last week was his shake off the rust week, and this week is his week where he should be fully back. JT's result last week showed us just how much he can be as a risk / reward play on any given week. Now given his ability to score last week paired with his great course history I think both are golfers we need to be targetting heavily this week.
     Data Tag: High Exposure
 Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

 My Takeaways:
This is a good callout as to why I have "Data Tags" for us, Sungjae Im would not have been a golfer I would have consider an elite option this week like the data is calling out, and the reason I would have thought that is because he let us down 3 events ago. But this is a course where if Sungjae is on him game he could easily week. Corey Conners is basically the same type of player as Sungjae as well. I do think Conners is a bit too high priced given his poor results in his last two events.
Sam Burns is not getting the Data Tag of being a Core Play because he missed the cut at this event 3 years ago but has since followed that up with a 6th, and 3rd place finish. I will be treating him as a Core Play as he ranks top 10 or better in all the other Key Metrics that we look at, and even his Course History rank is still top 20 even will that missed cut.
Another golfer that is checking the boxes this week is Sam Stevens, and we can get him at $7,600, and 80/1 odds. Stevens finished Top 30 at this event last year, has no concerns stat fit wise, and has made 11 straight cuts in a row. At this priced tag he is simply the correct click.
   Data Tag: Mid Exposure
 Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

 My Takeaways:
It is not really hard to see the slight flaws in all of these plays, but all of them are plays I am considering.
Hideki is not the best stat fit, and his form is descending, but his form is still good, and he has tremendous Course History. He also might have a slight wrist injury.
Billy Horschel missed the cut at the Sony Open but has since finished 21st, and 9th last week. He has great course history, and is a play that I really love. He is someone that when he is in contention he is going to grind this out. He is kind of the ultimate "Vibes" guy. When he is feeling himself he can go out and win, when he is not he could finish dead last. Thankfully the vibes with him seem to be good.
I already touched on the flaw with Sep Straka and his bad Course History.
Nick Taylor has great and terrible course history. Finishing 1st, and 2nd in his last two starts here, but also has missed two cuts. It certainly seems like he has figured out this course. Nick Taylor would be someone I could argue would be a good outright bet as well. The one thing that sucks about Taylor is his price in DFS. He is in the somewhat dead range where it does not really make sense to play him or any other golfer around that price tag because you can get similar plays at $500-$1,000 cheaper.
Compare Nick Taylor to Lucas Glover and you see what I mean. Glover ranks out as a better options who somewhat has better(ish) course history given that he hasn't missed a cut here in the last 4 years, but more importantly he is a better stat fit. The concern with Glover is his recent missed cut. That missed cut seems to be more of one bad round where he was not able to score in an event where you need to score, and if you don't it is tough to come back from. Besides that one round he has been playing solid golf.
    Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

 My Takeaways:
This range really highlights the quality of options we are getting below 8K, now they all have some flaw, but for the most part are all golfer that seem to be solid options for us. I touch on a few golfers below that I like.
Charley Hoffman has been solid thus far this season, and has finished 14th, and 2nd at this event over the past two years. He is a good stat fit that can pop but more importantly he is very cheap.
Matt Fitzpatrick has good course history, although is recent form has been spotty he has still made 9 straight cuts in a row. He is not a golfer I am going out of my way to target but is a "Shoulder Shrug" play I am happy to close out my builds with him. Same goes for a golfer like Keith Mitchell who has been playing much better this season.
Andrew Novak has certainly popped recently finishing 13th, and 3rd. He also finished top 10 here last year. I feel he is a bit too high priced but still like him.
Thomas Detry feels like a cheap made cut.
Lee Hodges would be a bit more expensive this week had it not been for is quad on 18 taking him from a potential top 10 finish to finishing 33rd. Had he simply hit the fairway he would have had 3 top 10 finishes over his past 4 starts while also being a top 10 stat fit. His course history is terrible but at least he has course history.
Bud Cauley is interesting. He finishing 65th here last year in his only start here in the last 4 years. He is a good stat fit, and has made 3 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour (some data back to the fall swing). At his price this week he would make sense in a JT and Scottie build.
Other values I like include some of the local guys in: Matt McCarty, and Jake Knapp who certainly could pop.
Andrew Putnam is a Arizona guy as well that I could see make the cut.
One of the more interesting clicks is Ben Kohles at his price. Good stat fit, and his made cuts in 3 out of his last 4 events. You could do much more than him as a play at this price. Brice Garnett is also someone that has made 3 straight cuts on the PGA Tour who seems too be too cheap.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Scottie, Burns, Stevens
GPP: Sungjae, Theegala, Conners
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.


I have struggling somewhat to close out my builds this week as we have a ton of alike plays to close out builds. As you can see above I loved on Fitzpatrick who I do believe is a good shoulder shrug play. The one concern from this build is too many recent missed cuts.
If Corey Conners was in good form I would love the optimal build that is listed below but he is not so I am a little bit worried but you can see I and the data are agreeing a decent amount this week.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder

PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.

How good of a play is Scottie this week? He is projected to get around 40% ownership and yet the data is telling us that here are "No Moves Needed" meaning if you are on him that much it is correct.
My biggest takeaway from the ownership this week is that it is correct. No JT easy for, no Taylor Pendrith / Jason Day clear cut leverage options.
Good lucky this week!
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