The Open (Championship) 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow / Green

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I like this week, we are getting a lot of soft pricing, and a lot of easy lineups to build. As long as the weather is not random it should be a good week.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2

• Seaside Style Courses (Strokes Gained Total) (Seaside) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

• Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5

  
  

We do not have key stats for this event when it took place here in 2019 besides the basic stats. We do know by looking at that, that Total Driving, and Par 5 Scoring were the most relevant stats then. This could change if the wind picks up. If that happens we may want to value strokes gained approach a little bit more.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

H1 - We are looking at the 2019 Open Championship where this event was played on Royal Port Rush, although it is a bit data I do think looking at this will be key, knowing which golfers have played this course before, and played this course well before.

The rest we will just be looking at event history here for the last 3 years.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

We do need to be on the look out for potential weather delays, and whether or not that will create any weather advantages for the tee times. Right now it does not seem to be that way but this will be something to check in on Wednesday night.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Corey Conners 80/1 (BetMGM)

• Patrick Cantlay 66/1

• Shane Lowry 40/1

• Sepp Straka 55/1

• Collin Morikawa 45/1

• Matt Fitzpatrick 55/1

• Xander Schauffele 16/1

• Jon Rahm 28/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Marc Leishman

• Justin Walters

• Stephan Jeager

• Davis Thompson

• Kristoffer Reitan

• Harry Hall

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Robert Macintyre beating Tyrrell Hatton +100 Draftkings

• Taylor Pendrith beating Jason Day +100 Draftkings

• Hideki beating Ben Griffin +100 BetMGM

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Tommy Fleetwood 28/1

• Xander 25/1

• Matt Fitzpatrick

• Sepp Straka 50/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

We have two things that are slightly concerning, and that is it, other than that he is an elite click. The two concerns are 1) his price, and 2) his comments about not being as motivated to be elite since he has had a kid. Still I think he is good to go, and he should be treated as the top play. He is easy to fit into builds even with his price. The issue is weather or not he will pay off this price. He basically has to finish top 5.

Xander on the other hand is the best golfer in the field when it comes to The Open and how he tends to play at this event. He has course experience as well making the cut here in 2019. We know he truly hasn't been himself this whole year, but last week it did feel like he was truly back, and if he is this price especially considering Scottie's is extremely appealing.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I really like Jon Rahm this week, I have been getting to him and Xander in a lot of my builds. Rahm played this course in 2019 finished 11th. He also has played these events well, with an event history rank of 3rd. He has played well in the majors this year finishing 7th, 8th, and 14th. I will be treating him as the 3rd best play in the field.

Patrick Cantlay is someone that has been pretty bad in majors besides The Open, and even here he hasn't played elite with his best finish being 8th here in 2022. He is an elite stat fit, and elite specialist. i would expect him to play well, and I have gotten to him a lot but at this price, but he is still a little risky with his random bad events.

Before seeing that he was tagged as a High Exposure play I was overlooking Henley, but now looking more into him he is a very interesting play. He finished 5th at The Open last year, and he has 3 straight to 10 finishes over his last 3 starts. He is also the 4th best Specialist in the field.

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