Tour Championship 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

This week the writeup will be a little bit slimmer due to the field size.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

No-cut event, 30 man field makes things tight, and although we have some direct lineup paths that I like for this week, if a play or two misses if could be a rough week. It is another week where we are most likely jamming Scottie into our builds.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• 200+ Scoring (200+) Key Stat 3

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• 200+ (200 + Scoring) Key Stat 4

• Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 5

  
  

This course is a longer track, so longer hitters do tend to play well, but due to the course design we do see it operate a lot as a second shot golf course where players need to be on their approach game specifically from 200+.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather will not be an issue.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Viktor Hovland 28/1

• Russell Henley 20/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the Showdown/Leaderboard You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

• Scottie Scheffler 2.9/1

• Rory McIlroy 9.5/1

• Tommy Fleetwood 15/1

• Viktor Hovland 25/1

  
  

Highlighted Plays:

The toughest part about this week is whether or not to go with Scottie Scheffler. Like most weeks he is priced up to a point where he is going to control the lineup path we take. If we do not go with Scottie I do think Rory will be the next best option. If not Rory a fair and balanced build could work.

The reason I like Scottie and Rory the most is that I believe that these two are the most likely to win, although I would find it very funny if Tommy Fleetwood were to win this week. He is at 15/1.

Scottie Scheffler: $13,900 (2.5/1)

Scottie ranks 1st in Recent Form, Stat Fit, and Specialist, while also being 3rd Course History rank. He has finished 1st, and 2nd here over the past 3 years. It's simple he the best pick.

Rory McIlroy: $11,300 (9.5/1)

The question with Rory since he has won the Grand Slam was whether or not he would be mentally geared up to play well. Last week we saw him finish 12th, and event I was pretty worried about him showing up for. Prior to last week he had finished 7th, 2nd, and 6th. Rory's game fits this course really well, as we saw him win this event 3 years ago. Simply put I think he wants to win this week thus he is a good play.

Tommy Fleetwood: $9,900 (15/1)

Fleetwood has only finished 18th, and 6th at this event over the past 2 years, this still ranks out top 10 but I would have like to see last years result to be better. Fleetwood also ranks top 10 or better in all the key metrics that we look at.

Those 3 golfers are the big three this week. That being said Ludvig Aberg has been playing great golf recently, and has course experience. This is a course where having course history tends to lead to further success so the fact that he played here last year and was not terrible is encouraging.

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