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Travelers Championship Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Travelers Championship

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.


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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.


Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

  • Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) - B2B ratio combined with Bogey Avoidance

  • Ball Striking (BS)

  • Total Driving (TD)

  • Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat

  • Good Drive % (GD%)

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

  • Course History Last 4 Years


Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

We can do a good studs and duds build this week which we know for No-Cut events is key, but the issue I face this week is that Russell Henley and Corey Conners are too cheap, and almost feel like they need to be rostered. If you do not feel that way than Studs and Duds will be your easy go to.


Weather seems fine, just please no delays!

Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.

Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

  • Xander 7.5/1

  • Ludvig Aberg

  • Corey Conners

  • Russell Henley

  • Andrew Putnam Top 40

Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most


The plays really all speak for themselves this week, they really all pop here, and the only issue with this range is that it is extremely difficult to get more than 2 of them into a build.

High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)


These are all pretty elite options this week as well, the issue is that I worry that loading up on too many plays like this can end up hurting a lineup. Most weeks we are chasing safety, while trying to maximize are upside. These plays should all be safe, and all hold plenty of upside, but if one of them miss and they are in your build that will hurt a lot more than a sub 7K play finishing 50th.

Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.


These are all golfers that I want exposure to this week mostly due to really good course history, but at the same time all of them seemed to be properly priced thus it is harder to get to them.

The one play that stands out the most is probably Harris English and that is due to his price, his game has been a little hit or miss this season, but it has been steadily improving, and I love the fact that he is ball striking the ball well this year ranking 9th in the field. It would not be shocking to see the former Travelers Championship Champ have another good week here.

Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays


All the sub 7K plays that I have listed are all plays that I believe will outproduce their price tag, which is all that we want when doing a studs and duds build. Thus I view those golfers as all strong plays. The one interesting play in that range is Kitayama who could pop here as he ranks out top 13 or better in Ball Striking, Total Driving, and EB2B. If he finishes top 10 it wouldn't be shocking, at the same time he is the riskiest of the golfers in this range as well.

Poston I am chasing upside, historically speaking this should be a good track for him. Jaeger I like because he is a good stat fit and a cheap price.


Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)


(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core, Putnam, Hodges, Svennson

GPP: Finau, Cantlay, Poston, English


*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Good example of how easy it is to make a solid fair and balanced build.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

No big shocks ownership wise.


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establish in 2018

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