Travelers Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

We have the Travelers Championship this week which is a no-cut event, so for PGA DFS purposes it will be a pretty straightforward week. I also think for betting it is a pretty straightforward week as well. The biggest question we have is will the golfers who just missed the cut last week have a slight advantage for not having to play in the US Open conditions the last 2 rounds. Will the players that finished top 10 or better last week who seem like great plays show up mentally this week. That is the tough part, we have a limited field event, and we need the obvious plays to deliver.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: YELLOW

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

Like I said this is a pretty straightforward week in terms of lineup process and which golfers to be on.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Good Drive % (GD%) Key Stat 4

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 5

  
  

This course is all about creating opportunities by not making mistakes, it is not exactly a plotters course but it is a course where golfers need to capitalize on the scoring opportunities that they can and make sure not to make dumb mistakes on the course.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather does not seem to be an issue.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

Most of the best numbers are on DraftKings

• Robert Macintyre 40/1

• Keegan Bradley 40/1

• Viktor Hovland 33/1

• Sam Burns 33/1

• Ben Griffin 40/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Russell Henley beating Nick Dunlap

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Xander Schauffele beating Rory +100 BetMGM

• Xander beating Morikawa +100 Betonline

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Viktor Hovland

• Russell Henley

• Robert Macintyre

Max Greyersman Top 10 at 6/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

One thing that concerns me about this week is that we only have one Core Play on paper. I would think for a tournament that is supposed to have all the best golfers that we would get more Core Plays. I think this speaks volumes to the randomness that we have seen this year. It really has been play Scottie and figure it out from there. That is what we will be doing this week as well.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

This range does summarize why we have no Core Plays. Xander still isn't the best stat fit after having a rough start to the season, but has good course history and good form. Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Shane Lowry have been extremely hit it miss, but have great course history and are great stat fits. Russell Henley is a great stat fit, has fine course history, and his form seems to be back after a few tough events.

They are the best clicks after Scottie but they all have some risk to them.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

I do like everyone in this range as well and I would agree that they are all more of mid exposure plays as well. That is more due to the event that we have this week, where we know to go with more of a studs and duds approach.

Personally I like getting to Macintyre the most, here, but all of these golfers are golfers that i could see winning this week.

Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.

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