Betting Picks: Process and Plays: Highlighting which golfers I believe are the best bets for that weeks tournament.
Last year I was able to peg Matt Fitzpatrick as and outright bet at 30/1 odds, two years ago two of my outright bets in Louis Oosthuizen, and Jon Rahm battled for the win with Rahm taking it home, and four years ago it was hitting Gary Woodland as an outright bet at 80/1. (Which really tells you how far Vegas has come with their odds).
We will take into who are my favorite outright bets and why they are my favorite, then I will give you my favorite placement bets, First Round Leader picks, and Round 1 Three Ball Bets.
Hope you enjoy!
OUTRIGHT BETS
Patrick Cantlay:
17/1 Fanduel
Cantlay is in the perfect spot to get a MAJOR championship win this week playing LA where he also went to school in college. He is also looking like an ideal stat fit this week ranking 2nd in the field in ball striking (KS1), 1st in the field in total driving (KS2), 3rd in Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (KS3), and 10th in Greens Gained (KS4). He game sets up ideal for this track, and his Specialist rank of 9th also proves that.
He is in the 3rd best recent form, and this is without a win over his past 10 starts. This tells me that he is far overdue for a win given how well that he has been been playing.
Xander Schauffele:
20/1 Bet365
Xander is another golfer that has reportedly played this course a decent amount throughout his life which should lead to some comfortability for him. Xander has been the most consistent golfer that doesn't win as much as he should, still a win over his past 20 starts is not a knock. If he keeps putting himself into contention to win eventually he will.
Xander played well at the past two majors finishing 18th at the PGA Championship, and 10th at the Master. He has finished 14th, and 7th at the US Open over the past two years.
Watching Xander a lot this season it seems like he has gotten a wrong number on a club at some unfortunate times. Given that there not too much trouble on this course, meaning water that Xander could duck hook a drive into when he is in contention Xander should be just fine.
The more the week has went on the more I have talked myself into Xander and Cantlay.
Tyrrell Hatton:
32/1 Fanduel
Tyrrell Hatton is coming in looking like the same play as Matt Fitzpatrick was last year. I guess you could argue Fitz was actually in contention at the PGA Championship whereas Hatton wasn't but he still have a good T15 finish. Hatton has struggled at the past two US open as well, but he is definitely coming in as a different looking golfer this year. He is a top 10 stat fit, and top 10 in recent form rank. A top 20 specialist, and ranks out a top 5 play in the NineToFive Model. I love the fac that he is top 20 or better in Total Driving, Ball Striking EB2B, and Greens Gained. That should void well for him having a great week and being in contention.
I joked on the weekly video that the only worry with Hatton is whether or not he was on the Nick Taylor Celebration flight from the RBC Canadian Open to the US Open, because it seemed like those guys were having a good time, hopefully not too good of a time and are hung over.
Rickie Fowler:
Draftkings 50/1
Rickie Fowler this week who is a top 12 stat fit, and top 10 in recent form this week. Now he did miss the cut at the PGA Championship on the number but there we a lot of random missed cuts that week Rickie has played like a top 15 player in the world and we are getting him at a cheap price in DFS and a solid number outright. Heck this almost seems like an ideal setup for Rickie the way he has been hitting the ball. Worth noting that Rickie was born not too far away from LA in Murrieta, California. The stars are aligning, could this finally be the week for Rickie???
Justin Rose
Fanduel 48/1
Rose is coming in ranking out top 10 in the 925 Model, it is clear that we are getting him at an extreme discount. Rose came close to getting the win last week, and it seemed like it was his to lose except for an untimely double bogey. Now Rose is a golfer I do struggle to see WINNING this event, but I could see this event being handed to him. Where he shoots a low number on Sunday, and the leader chokes.
I think he makes for a great top 20 bet as well. That feels like an extremely safe bet.
Other Outright Bets I Like
Max Homa 35/1 DraftKings, Collin Morikawa 36/1 Fanduel, Si Woo Kim 70/1 DraftKings
Looking at articles of Homa's PAC12 Championship win in 2013 on this course was very interesting, because they basically said that he had no business winning let alone setting a course record. You could probably argue that this was a big moment and possibly a top 10 moment in his golfing career. It was definitely a moment of impact in his life, and if he is playing well that little added feeling of "I've done this on this track before" could be the deciding factor. One would argue that, this was the difference for Matt Fitzpatrick last year. Homa could be a lower owned play that presents massive upside.
Collin Morikawa is another guy that we know for sure has played this track at least prior to this week at the 2017 Walker Cup where he went 4-0 that week.
Both Homa and Morikawa finished top 6 or better at the Genesis Invitational as well, which was another comp course that I was looking at as it was designed by the same course designer that we have this week. (George Thomas).
Now Homa as struggled more recently, and the data does not like him as much, but for a course that seems to be see shot hit shot, Homa could do very well.
Morikawa on the other hand had been trending the right direction prior to his WD in his previous event. I would imagine he WD from that event out of an abundance of caution, at the same time he did give up some good money buy WD'ing so it is tough to say for sure. What we do know is that Morikawa is an elite ball striker and total driver ranking out top 10 in the field in both. Overall ranks out as the 11th best stat fit in the field. Morikawa being in contention to win on Sunday would be expected if we knew he was 100%.
Si Woo Kim is a golfer that is really standing out this week. He has not played all to well in majors but he is a great stat fit, and has been playing much more consistently this season. I do expect him to figure it out this week and make the cut at a major the question is can he win? Like Rose I think Kim would need a come from behind victory if that were going to happen.
Placement Bets
Besides the golfer listed above (they make for great top 10, and 20 bets.
Top 20: Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim
Top 30: Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama
Top 40 or Made Cut: Wyndham Clark, Patrick Rodgers, Andrew Putman.
First Round Leader
Golfers listed in the graphic below are the ones that are most likely to have the FRL with the AM only tee time. Up until last week with both Aaron Rai, and Corey Conners ending with the FRL this had hit the T2 FRL for the past 2 months. I bring that up because T5 bets are huge edges on BetMGM as they pay out full. Last week this data hit the low round golfer for every single round as well.
Worth noting my strategy with FRL stays the same bet the top 5% of golfers most likely to have the FRL lead that have the EARLY tee time in RD. (I will then do this again for RD 2 using the NineToFive Showdown sheet, and then for RD3, and 4 I put no tee time filter on the data)
All of the golfers that are listed above I would be more than happy to bet them to be in the top 10 after the first round in markets that have those. But I do struggle to see Sungjae and JT having the FRL. I would rather chase slightly longer odds and go Rose, and Scott over them.
Note these plays could and should be used for showdowns or underdog fantasy drafts.
Round 1 Three Ball Bets
Golfers that matchup the best for round 1 three ball bets.
That is all for this week, Good luck!
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